The winning streak came to an end at Beulah yesterday, and when looking back at the PP's, there was no way did I see Jinete in that race. Checksandbalances had a no excuse race, was well positioned and then faded out. Today we get a stakes race at Parx. It's The Philmont (Purse $75,000) for 3YO going seven furlongs and it's a contentious field of seven.
It's hard to pass on the #1 King and Crusader ML 7/2, shipping in from Aqueduct. I liked his chances in the Bayshore(G3) and he faltered after getting close. Today he drops down into the $75K stakes level where he won three times. The last one, the Winfield he posted a 86 Beyer. He has shown versatility winning at various distances and tracks and Dutrow is a razor sharp trainer in these spots. Luzzi stays on board for this one and wins 35% for Dutrow. He will go out early with #3 Jake N Elwood ML 2/1 who won his maiden here at Parx last out, posting an improved Beyer of 80. This is an aggressive move by his connections and they must see something to bypass the normal conditions this fast. He had a bullet workout on the 17th, Frey stays in the irons and Petro is a tough trainer.
Next up is #3 Phil Dancer ML 5/1. Had won two in a row here at Parx before getting waylaid in the Bayshore(G3) at Aqueduct finishing a distant sixth. Reid brings him back home, breezed him a couple of days ago, takes the blinkers off and puts Pennington on board (25% win record with Reid). He likes to stalk the pace and we do have some speed today so he might get the right trip. I'm going with Phil Dancer as my pick using the horse for course angle and Reid is over 20% wins on dirt sprints.
The last one in the mix is the #2 Cop a Tude ML 3/1. This 3YO is shipping in from Laurel where he won his first two races before stretching out in the Private Terms ($75K), finishing fifth. He has had two good works since that race, the cut back in distance is always a good angle and he gets a new surface. You don't ignore Graham Motion horses and he keeps Russell in the irons. His Beyer's have been steady and would expect them to improve today, he will press the pace which also puts him in a good position.
Like all contentious races it gets down to the odds. I suspect #1 and #4 will be bet heavily and letting either #2 or #3 to slip off. While any four can win it, if Phil Dancer gets off at 7/1 or higher then he is my play, otherwise we will watch an interesting race.
