We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On. First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say. Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race. It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass. It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.
The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1. She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today. Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance). Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with ...
#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1
She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings. Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her. Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill. The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look. I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event. She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.
It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.
