We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification. There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically. With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race. In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him. What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable. Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5. With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense. Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race. We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day. So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.
Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf. Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse. In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat. He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth. Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today. She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group. The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money. So the final question is to play or lay?
So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa? There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1. In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck. She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile. I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses. If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.
Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1. She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style. Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs. The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price. She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass. The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse. He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.
Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher.
