Saturday Night Special: Charles Town 8th Race 4/28/2012

On Friday at Calder our selection Goldsome went off at 48/1 and gave us a show finish.  Due to him going off over 10/1 the bet would have been stacked at $2 win/$4 place/$6 show.  His show finish gave us a $10.60 payout for a $31.80 return (net profit $19.80).  Tonight we go to Charles Town for the 8th race, an Allowance race for 3YO's that are non winners of three.  They will racing for $27,000 going seven furlongs over the dirt and two turns.

It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms.  His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite.  He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level.  He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat.  He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters.  There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1.  He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer.  The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it.  You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast.  The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.

Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him.  If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4.  Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level.  He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds.  A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/22/2012

We finished off the week with our fourth win in a row with Sleeping Tiger winning at Penn National last night. Not real excited about the odds of 3/1 but with the scratches it would have been a fair price in the end.  So we had a week of two thirds for no return and four winners! Three of them paid a nice net profit, the other did as well but I got greedy and ended up making almost nothing, well sixty cents is really nothing.

Monday:  Raise the Bounty  finished third, no play
Tuesday:  Catch The Bean finished third, net loss $3.00
Wednesday:  Becca's Run, winner and net profit of $19.20
Thursday:  Datatthespa winner, bet on Firehouse Red and he finished fourth, net profit $.60
Friday:  Shakeria winner, net profit $37.20
Saturday:  Sleeping Tiger winner, net profit $40.80

The assumption is a $12 win bet. The exceptions are Dayatthespa where I played $6 to win and a $6 show bet on Firehouse Red, and Catch the Bean where I spread the $12 over win, place and show. Net profit means monies left after taking back our initial wager.  We started the week with a positive bank roll of $80.40 and this week netted $94.80 for a new balance of $175.20.

Saturday Night Special: 6th Race Penn National 4/21/12

At Aqueduct yesterday, Shakeira,  our choice hit the board with a win and paid $8.20.  This time I didn't get greedy and put the whole $12 on the nose and the return was $49.20!  So we have three winners in a row and thought tonight I would toss out a longshot at Penn National.   It's the 6th Race, an Allowance $40,000N1X for 4YO+ Pennsylvania state breds going six furlongs on dirt.

I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1.  This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime.  He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two.  Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76.  We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs.  He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts.  Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready.  There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them.  If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward.  No matter is should be an interesting race.