At Aqueduct yesterday, Shakeira, our choice hit the board with a win and paid $8.20. This time I didn't get greedy and put the whole $12 on the nose and the return was $49.20! So we have three winners in a row and thought tonight I would toss out a longshot at Penn National. It's the 6th Race, an Allowance $40,000N1X for 4YO+ Pennsylvania state breds going six furlongs on dirt.
I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1. This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime. He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two. Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76. We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs. He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts. Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready. There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them. If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward. No matter is should be an interesting race.
Showing posts with label Penn National. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Penn National. Show all posts
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Play of the Day: 4th at Penn National 4/18/2012
We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1. He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return. That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race. It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's. The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Saturday Night Special: Penn Natl 4th Race
I was scanning the entries this afternoon and found an interesting spot play. It's the 4th race at Penn National, an Allowance race($36,000N1X) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going a mile on the dirt. Most like the #1 for the live longshot play, and she is interesting, however when I look deeper into the lineup I found the ...
#9 For Real Too ML 8/1
The attraction is this 4YO filly, is lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row. She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth. You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66. Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins. What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races. In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey. Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!
#9 For Real Too ML 8/1
The attraction is this 4YO filly, is lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row. She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth. You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66. Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins. What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races. In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey. Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)