Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.
It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse. This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it. I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.
The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass. Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass. Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.
Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1. We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher. He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help. Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one. It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one? His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.
Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1. Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher. The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share. So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch. Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall. I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the mix.
So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.
Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.
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