The DRF tossed up a low level claiming race today. I normally don't handicap them and thought it would be a neat challenge to take a crack at this one. It's for 3YO and upwards going six furlongs on dirt. The conditions are non winners of two since April 23, 2011, claiming price is $3500. One other condition that horses entered for races of $2500 or less, those races are excluded. That's why you see a couple of runners today with two wins and one of them recently.
Seven have entered and I've got it down to four, I'm going to start with my pick.
#6 Checksandbalances ML 3/1
I have gone back and forth between this 6YO and the #1 High Intellect. The reasons I'm leaning to him is that he has really been running well at Beulah since shipping from PA. He has won two for four at this distance, and the other two he was close in both on off tracks. The angle today is that he gets a new trainer in Juan Aguirre, who is one of the top trainers at Beulah. In fact, he wins 42% with first timers. He won at the $4000 level back at Penn National and is trying this group after almost winning one in the mud. His speed is comparable to the rest, likes to press close to the pace and can go wire to wire. Aguirre keeps Hernandez in the irons, were they hit 38% of the time. 3/1 is a decent price but would like 7/2 or better.
#1 High Impact ML 5/2
Here is another one that found his level after shipping in from the West Coast. Since Charlie Lawson took over this 7YO has won two straight at the $2500 with improving speed. He has been on a short break and posted a bullet work, Lawson wins 21% of the time with layoffs. He likes to stalk the pace, and with no speed this could be an issue, if he stays close he could get it done.
#4 Frantic Domer ML 2/1
He has won two of seven in 2012, his last being a $5000N4L. So that would give him the class edge but his form cycle seems to be short. His last two efforts were at the $3500N2y and $35003y both ending in place finishes. His past Beyer's have never been above 52 and would need a big improvement to beat some of these salter competitors. He likes to press the front and with seven of nine on the board at Beulah you can't ignore him. Just not sure as the morning line favorite is worth the risk/reward.
#5 Atswhatisaid ML 6/1
Won at this level two back in the mud, then stepped up to non winners of three and finished fifth on a late rally. He is the closer in this crowd which makes him dangerous and Joe Poole does well in claiming races with a 21% win record. So dropping back down a level might suit him today. The concern I have is that he has only won once at six furlongs in ten attempts. But then again with little speed in this race he could blow right by them if the pace doesn't grind him down. 6/1 is a fair morning line but would be more interested if we got 8/1 or better.
In the end, unless there is a real swing in the odds somewhere, I will take my chances on #6 Checksandbalances.
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