Saturday Night Special: 4th @ Santa Anita (Matinee Special)

I took a long look at the night races across the country and nothing really popped for me, so I took the 4th at Santa Anita to play for a Matinee Special.  Its a Maiden Special Weight event for 3YO for $56,000 and we are going to look outside on this one.

#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1

He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's.  Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively.  There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo.  Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady.  At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.

If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1.  This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season.  Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/17/12

Going to change how I recap the week. To get a better gauge how we are doing, I will list each race and the money won or lost.

Monday:    Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.

Tuesday:   Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.  

Wednesday:  Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.

Thursday:  Sportswriter at Aqueduct.  No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).

Friday:  Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.  

Bet: $26  Cashed: $56.40  Profit: $30.40

Santa Anita Handicap Spot Play for today

I'm a big fan of Mark Cramer (also James Quinn), and I just realized that shows my age doesn't it? Anyway, Cramer has an angle for surprise winners. You find a horse with three straight loses that is switching tracks along with a jockey change. Additionally, the horse should be beaten by more than 2 lengths in those three races, dropping (or rising) in class and odds greater than 4/1. Cramer showed a 13% win ratio with a huge ROI.

The #8 Gladding fits most of the criteria. It did finish less than 2 lengths back in one of those three races and is moving up in class not down. So consider him a borderline case, but at a morning line of 12/1, it's worth the shot. You got Gladding coming in from Churchill, Rosario is now riding, and he has won at Santa Anita before. So for fun, will put a dime on him.

Side note: I saw El Padrino clipped a 101 in the Risen Star, making two in a row of over 100 Beyer, he looks strong to me. The one I do like is Mark Valeski, who was neck and neck with El Padrino, so he had to have had a Beyer at 100, a huge jump for him. It's early for the Derby hopefuls, but Mark Valeski is quietly rising into contention.