I'm a big fan of Mark Cramer (also James Quinn), and I just realized that shows my age doesn't it? Anyway, Cramer has an angle for surprise winners. You find a horse with three straight loses that is switching tracks along with a jockey change. Additionally, the horse should be beaten by more than 2 lengths in those three races, dropping (or rising) in class and odds greater than 4/1. Cramer showed a 13% win ratio with a huge ROI.
The #8 Gladding fits most of the criteria. It did finish less than 2 lengths back in one of those three races and is moving up in class not down. So consider him a borderline case, but at a morning line of 12/1, it's worth the shot. You got Gladding coming in from Churchill, Rosario is now riding, and he has won at Santa Anita before. So for fun, will put a dime on him.
Side note: I saw El Padrino clipped a 101 in the Risen Star, making two in a row of over 100 Beyer, he looks strong to me. The one I do like is Mark Valeski, who was neck and neck with El Padrino, so he had to have had a Beyer at 100, a huge jump for him. It's early for the Derby hopefuls, but Mark Valeski is quietly rising into contention.
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