At Parx yesterday our selection, Phil Dancer got the odds we wanted and more importantly we got the result too! He ran an excellent trip and scored a $14.20 winning ticket. With a $12 win bet that would have been a $85.20 return for a net profit of $73.20. Today we head back to Chicago to Hawthorne for the 6th race. It's an Allowance event ($35,000N1X) for state bred fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards going a mile on grass.
This is one of those fields you could call lesser of evils, for no one here looks like a clear winner. I'm leaning towards #2 Little Frances ML 5/2 (should be more like 3/1). I normally don't like first time starters on grass but its hard to ignore her winning longer here at Hawthorne back in November. This also will be her second start as a 4YO and under Michael Reavis, who is an outstanding trainer here in the Midwest. She has held her own in this level on dirt, her running style works well here and Thornton is on board again. You can also add in the "blinkers off" and you have an interesting opportunity. The issue will be the odds, she will get bet down with the #5 Prima Donna Pirate ML 2/1 and that will take care of that.
For this race, I'll go outside. #4 Lefty's Legacy ML 10/1 (that's a fair price) will be my pick. Taking a maiden winner is always risky but she broke her maiden at this distance on grass at Hawthorne a week back. Frank Kirby spins her right back in her first non winners of one and she showed big improvement in her speed fig's. Kirby is one of the better trainers and to wheel her right back shows she has more in the tank. She is the lone speed here and could find herself going wire to wire against this crowd.
Now if you want to go for a real dark horse and a big price, I'll take the #7 Live Today ML 20/1. This 5YO has had a rough go the last two years racing in dirt sprints outside of Illinois. Going back to her 3YO career she won at this distance on grass at Arlington under Christine Janks, who she rejoins with again today. This mare showed promise back then and sadly got lost in the claiming shuffle. So there is a big angle here with a new trainer (who had done well with her in the past), jockey switch, surface/distance change and adding blinkers. Janks has been working her steadily and could get up for a piece of the action. I'll be rooting for her to find her way back, hoping the past two years didn't destroy her confidence or heart for racing.
Showing posts with label Hawthorne. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hawthorne. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Play of the Day: 5th Race at Hawthorne 3/28/2012
Last night at Charles Town, Stop the Bull came in second on a dead heat. Unfortunately, he went off at his morning line of 5/1, and we needed a lot better than that to take the risk. The selection worked but the value didn't. So in the end he would have been a no play.
Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne. It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.
This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year. The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72. In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value. The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back. Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.
I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.
Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne. It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.
This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year. The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72. In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value. The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back. Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.
I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.
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