A powerful source for winners ... those early years

Monmouth Park closed for the second day due to extreme heat and humidity, that put’s the Survival At The Shore tournament on hold. That gave me some time to catch up on reading and other turf blogs. I tweeted about Dean Arnold’s TVG blog about 2 y/o’s at Saratoga coming out of the one hole. It was insightful and gave some excellent tips on how to play them. I also enjoyed Todd Schrupp’s write up on his childhood experiences at Del Mar. When I finished it, I started to think back on my first exposure to horse racing. For me it wasn’t going to the track, even though my parents were handicapping nomads on the SoCal circuit.

It was evenings sitting with my dad in his ’58 Nomad listening to race re-creations. I can still see and hear it. After dinner, dad would grab me and tell my mother, who was cleaning the kitchen, that we had an errand to run. We would go out into his gun metal gray Nomad, doors open , and turn on the radio. He would sit there with his folded up Herald Examiner, figures and notes written all over it. What captured me totally was not my dad winning or losing, it was that golden voice of JR Richards of Horse and Jockey. Today, I can still here his deep voice calling out the shows tag line, “Horse and Jockey a powerful source for winners.”

I would sit there staring at the radio, listening to every race replay, I was so enthralled with it I barely heard my dad bitch and moan about some nag still running up the track. What I did learn from my dad in those days, was that speed wins more than their fair share, he was a total speed ball handicapper. Secondly, I learned the phrase, “horses for courses”. He had Pomona nailed down (now Fairplex), it was a bull ring, so when horses came in from Del Mar or Hollywood and show lousy form, he would pull out his notebook and if the horse showed hitting the board at the ’ring, he’d bet them. He would laugh and say, “horses for courses” and grin like a mad hatter.

So for me it wasn’t the train to Del Mar, the opening of the season at Oak Tree or the afternoons at Hollywood Park, it was those early evenings sitting with dad, in his station wagon on the driveway, feeling the ocean breeze, hearing JR Richards bring home another day of races.

Thanks dad, for those wonderful memories and a lifetime of winners!

Sunday in Curragh, a needed change of pace

After the debacle I suffered in the Breeders Cup Qualifier on Saturday. Barely staying alive in the Survivor At The Shore at Monmouth, Friday and Saturday. I decided Sunday would be international day.

If you read my international pick of the day for Sunday at Hollywood Park, Ashtar, you will see I had the right continent but the wrong country. Ashtar came from Chile and looked sharp for half the race, then folded up and came in last. It was all “hunch” and should have gone with the Brazlian, Imponente Purse, the second choice at 5/2. The eventual winner.

But before all that happened, I jumped over to Ireland and played four races. I will admit it was more luck than handicapping for their forms and past performances are quite different. All in all, I picked 3 of 4 and all paid nice prices. It started off with the Irish Oaks, and went with Blue Bunting. I will spare you my written details and let you just enjoy the race.



Then onto the Survivor tourney at Monmouth, there things recovered nicely and had two winners and a second. With five weeks to go, denting the leader board is unlikely so now it is like running a marathon; just finish it without getting knocked out.

For this week, I have had two nice scores: yesterday at Parx in the 8th race. It was on turf for 5f, Optional Claimers 25K/2nl. These are difficult races for me to handicap, for the field is wide open and can make a good case for two or three. I went with Bounding Bi for three reasons, she raced on turf twice and speed figures really jumped up 84 and 82, won last out on grass placed second back in September. The deal sealer was she had a win and place at Parx. So went with the “horses for courses” angle, good grass speed and recent winner. She paid $7.60 to win.

Today, in the 8th race at Delaware Park, Maiden Claimers $30000 going 7.5f on grass. Like most of these types of races, one or two look like they are ready, but in reality, who knows, throw a dart. The favorite, and deservedly sot was President Eaton. Lightly raced 3 y/o, finished third on turf going a mile and 70. Good jockey and trainer connection, best speed of the group at 66, good workouts, and cutting back in distance, was on the lead at this distance. Then I reminded myself, maiden claimers are like women, they can look damn pretty and still break your heart, so went I digging.

I came up with a 3 y/o gelding named Circus. I will admit this was a stretch play. Good jockey in Rose, decent trainer, and used the key race angle liberally. What did catch my eye, was that it looked like the previous trainer was trying to figure out how to run him. The past performances looked jumbled and the last three races were on off courses. He did show flash of speed in two, and all previous races were at a mile. The pp’s showed him up close at the first and second call so used the cutting back in distance idea, throw in good works, and said at 5/1 m/l why not? The new trainer, Triola, has a good record with first timers under his tutelage and turf record. Circus hit the board for a $9.60!

So it proves that when you think things can’t get any worse, a change of venue can make a huge difference. Luck of the Blarney, maybe, but will take it every time.

Going international in the Sunset Hcp (G3)

There is no doubt that the Sunset Handicap (G3) is a wide open affair, with Acclamation out. You can take four of the entrants and make a strong case for each of them. The safe choice, and on that is deserved, would be to take Celtic New Year. You could debate Falcon Rock, Restless Soul and Imponente Purse having a shot at the board too. All four have placed well in graded company, even though none have won a graded event.

Taking that into consideration, and looking for a price play, am going to go International and take first time starter, Ashtar. The prevailing wisdom is to let South American turf stars get one under their belt before jumping on the bandwagon. Normally I would follow that advice. So why now? Good question.

When I look at the four serious contenders, I don’t see horses that are winners. They place well but for some reason can’t get the job done consistently, that makes them vulnerable. Ashtar is a Grade 1 and 3 winner in South America, decent pedigree, has won at this distance, good workouts at Hollywood Park and first time lasix.

One other interesting point, while I’m not one to take too much credence in weights, she is going into the Sunset with a 12 pound weight drop. Lastly, he has more wins lifetime than the rest of the field. Call it a hunch play, morning line is 8-1 and believe he will go off much higher.

With this race will say good bye to Hollywood Park and head to Del Mar!

Battle at BC Qualifier

Yesterday, I participated in my first BC Qualifier Round 1 tournament.  It is an entry fee tournament with 300 maximum players.    Top 30 move onto a Round 2 and from there those qualifiers go on to the BC Betting Challenge at the Breeders Cup and compete for $350,000 in prize money.  The day was set up with nine races, chosen from Arlington, Monmouth and Hollywood Park.

This was a one day tourney requiring good handicapping and looking for price.  The wagering was a mythical $2 Win and Place.  The strategy was simple, handicap the best horse, have a second one for the price play in case your first selection gets beaten down in the odds.   Handicapping done and picks  in place, and the tournament allows you to make changes up to 5 minutes to post.   My personal goal was to qualify in the top 30 and be happy with top 50 finish.  So here is race by race results, enjoy the glory of victory and the agony of defeat.

1^st race:  Arlington.  First choice, The Gardner and price pick was Daisy Again.  The Gardner gets bet down to the favorite, strategy says switch to Daisy Again at 7-1.  I freeze, think too much, get tentative and don’t listen to my instincts. No change. Results:  Daisy Again wins and The Gardner comes in second.  So instead of being in 1^st,  I  sit at 47^th of 300. Cursing myself for choking and vowing never again.

2^nd race: at Arlington.  First choice,  My Baby Baby, second choice was Fantasia.  Here we go again. My first choice gets bet down and Fantasia slips out to a nice price.  I choke again!! This time it’s because I dislike stalkers, and Fantasia is a stalker.  A mental bias that cost me dearly.  Results:  Fantasia wins and My Baby Baby fades to 3^rd.  Serious groan now for I slip to 130 of 300 instead of being in the top 5.

3^rd race: Monmouth.  Top pick was All Of The Above and the other was Rattlesnake Bridge.  This time my first choice holds a good price. Result:   Rattlesnake Bridge as the favorite nails my choice at the wire for a photo finish.  Get a second and move up to 108 of 300. 

4^th race: Hollywood Park.  Straightomidnight  first pick and Captain Sparrow the second choice.  Both go off at 5-1 so make no change.  Result: Captain Sparrow wins and Straightomidnight comes in 2^nd.  No issue with this race, and move up to 91 to 300 and confidence up. 

5^th race: Back to Arlington.  Derby Kitten my choice got off at nice odds and ran third. Dropped back to 103 over 300 but happy how my handicapping was ITM for the first five races.

6^th race: Monmouth 12^th.   The horse I chose,  Labonte scratched and the field shrunk to a short field. Went with Farmer Jones at 5 -2 and he scored a victory.   That pushed me to 49^th place.  Three races to go all at Hollywood Park including the Gold Cup.  For the first time I believe I have a shot at top 50 and even making the required top 30!

7^th race:  Arlington and go with Mister Marti Gras, he went off at a good price and finished second.  That puts me back in the Top 50 at 42^nd. 

8^th race:  Had Fortunate Appeal and second choice was Indy Ride.  The odds for each were so close, did not get cute and left the pick in place. Indy Ride wins and my pick finishes 3^rd.  No shame here, no freezing believed my horse was the best.  Dropped back to 57^th.  Between races did some math on the leader board and figured out if I had switched the horses in the first two races, would have been in 2^nd place! 

9^th at Hollywood was the Gold Cup with Twirling Candy at 4-5.  Went with Game On Dude with Chantal Sutherland back in the saddle.  It wasn’t Twirling Candy that won, it was First Dude, the stable mate of Game On Dude .  First Dude came up at the wire and beat Game On Dude by a nose! Another second and two photo finishes on the wrong side, but that’s racing. Back to 52^nd spot.

10^th race:  Now decision time.  Alley Hondro was my first pick and he was sitting at 2-1.  If I stay with him I grab $10 dollars and move possibly into the 40’s somewhere but no top 30.  Or I look for a reasonable priced horse and with some luck slip into the top 30 and forsake my finishing goal of top 50.  Maybe a bit late and a dollar short, but played the strategy and went with Lucky Mr K at 4-1.  Alley Hondro won and Lucky Mr K was in good position at the top of the stretch but faded to 9^th.  Side note:  took a long look at Donato but when Simon Bray at TVG picked him that eliminated him.  Always enjoy what Simon has to say but his picks are the kiss of death.  Finished the tournament at 69^th of 300. 

Now if I had done what I should have done in the first two races and would have placed 6^th.  That takes care of the “woulda, shoulda, coulda” conversation.  Overall, I’m happy with my handicapping.  One winner, 5 seconds (two photo finishes), 3 thirds and one out.  

The lesson learned be aggressive and always listen to your instincts and let the racing gods work their magic.

At the Survival At The Shore Tournament at Monmouth Park.  63 races into the 3 month tournament have 13 winners, 14 seconds and 8 thirds for 54% in the money and 21% win percentage. I‘m happy with the percentages for winning and ITM but have not nearly been aggressive enough on the price patterns.