No chicken dinner at Balmoral, Surviving the Shore and It's Tricky

Going to start the blog with a recap of the pick 4 at Balmoral, then onto the for HANA’s Weekend Handicap (Saturday and Sunday).

Last night was my first Pick 4 on harness racing, and like I said a total rookie. So here are the results. Race #7 my first choice won, Rejoiceandbeglad. He went off as the favorite and returned $5.40 on a $2 win ticket, not too bad and first race covered. Race #8 is next and Onebrewfortheroad won as the favorite and paid $4.60. She was my second choice behind Toshie Special who finished 2nd. Now two races covered and the dreaded single next in R#9. I took a chance on Cam’s Magic MaeMae, not on her past performances but her being in the 8 spot. As I understand it, the more outside a Pacer is the tougher to win. She went off at the third favorite and finished last. Cole Blue a 12-1 went wire to wire and won by 5+ lengths and killing my Pick 4. Now, as a good handicapper, I went back to see what did I miss? Right now I can’t see any glaring stat that would have put her in any grouping little lone a single. The only thing is two back she raced well at Maywood coming out of the #1 slot where she started last night. Chalk it up to it was her night. So on to R#10. Just because we are knocked out we still have to see how we did anyway, right? The #5 CoCoChino that I had in my group won going off at 11-1!! She paid $25.60 to win. So we snagged 3 of 4 the first time out. Not bad, but no chicken dinner. The pool was $18,893 and it paid $1279.00.

Now the race selections for this weekend Handicap Weekend with HANA. I will say it now, not the Alabama. Why? I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan, she is going to win. There that race is done. Seriously, I think she is the best filly in the country and should win her third G1 (making her the first horse of the season to win 3 G1’s). The field is talented, but It’s Tricky will just grind you down, she is tough, real grit and she is on a roll. The only threat is Inglorious from Woodbine, but down the stretch It’s Tricky just takes them out. So the races are: Del Mar Oaks G1 $250K 3YO 1 1/8 turf on Saturday and for Sunday, we are going North to Woodbine for the Sky Classic G2 $250K 3YO+ 1 ¼ turf.

Lastly, am still surviving the Survival At The Shore contest at Monmouth Park, in fact, I need to handicap three races tonight for Friday. I lost one of two life preservers last week due to sloppy handicapping. Since the goal now is to survive to the end, the risk factor has risen so will require tighter handicapping on my part.

See you all tomorrow over at HANA with the Del Mar Oaks analysis.

Battle at BC Qualifier

Yesterday, I participated in my first BC Qualifier Round 1 tournament.  It is an entry fee tournament with 300 maximum players.    Top 30 move onto a Round 2 and from there those qualifiers go on to the BC Betting Challenge at the Breeders Cup and compete for $350,000 in prize money.  The day was set up with nine races, chosen from Arlington, Monmouth and Hollywood Park.

This was a one day tourney requiring good handicapping and looking for price.  The wagering was a mythical $2 Win and Place.  The strategy was simple, handicap the best horse, have a second one for the price play in case your first selection gets beaten down in the odds.   Handicapping done and picks  in place, and the tournament allows you to make changes up to 5 minutes to post.   My personal goal was to qualify in the top 30 and be happy with top 50 finish.  So here is race by race results, enjoy the glory of victory and the agony of defeat.

1^st race:  Arlington.  First choice, The Gardner and price pick was Daisy Again.  The Gardner gets bet down to the favorite, strategy says switch to Daisy Again at 7-1.  I freeze, think too much, get tentative and don’t listen to my instincts. No change. Results:  Daisy Again wins and The Gardner comes in second.  So instead of being in 1^st,  I  sit at 47^th of 300. Cursing myself for choking and vowing never again.

2^nd race: at Arlington.  First choice,  My Baby Baby, second choice was Fantasia.  Here we go again. My first choice gets bet down and Fantasia slips out to a nice price.  I choke again!! This time it’s because I dislike stalkers, and Fantasia is a stalker.  A mental bias that cost me dearly.  Results:  Fantasia wins and My Baby Baby fades to 3^rd.  Serious groan now for I slip to 130 of 300 instead of being in the top 5.

3^rd race: Monmouth.  Top pick was All Of The Above and the other was Rattlesnake Bridge.  This time my first choice holds a good price. Result:   Rattlesnake Bridge as the favorite nails my choice at the wire for a photo finish.  Get a second and move up to 108 of 300. 

4^th race: Hollywood Park.  Straightomidnight  first pick and Captain Sparrow the second choice.  Both go off at 5-1 so make no change.  Result: Captain Sparrow wins and Straightomidnight comes in 2^nd.  No issue with this race, and move up to 91 to 300 and confidence up. 

5^th race: Back to Arlington.  Derby Kitten my choice got off at nice odds and ran third. Dropped back to 103 over 300 but happy how my handicapping was ITM for the first five races.

6^th race: Monmouth 12^th.   The horse I chose,  Labonte scratched and the field shrunk to a short field. Went with Farmer Jones at 5 -2 and he scored a victory.   That pushed me to 49^th place.  Three races to go all at Hollywood Park including the Gold Cup.  For the first time I believe I have a shot at top 50 and even making the required top 30!

7^th race:  Arlington and go with Mister Marti Gras, he went off at a good price and finished second.  That puts me back in the Top 50 at 42^nd. 

8^th race:  Had Fortunate Appeal and second choice was Indy Ride.  The odds for each were so close, did not get cute and left the pick in place. Indy Ride wins and my pick finishes 3^rd.  No shame here, no freezing believed my horse was the best.  Dropped back to 57^th.  Between races did some math on the leader board and figured out if I had switched the horses in the first two races, would have been in 2^nd place! 

9^th at Hollywood was the Gold Cup with Twirling Candy at 4-5.  Went with Game On Dude with Chantal Sutherland back in the saddle.  It wasn’t Twirling Candy that won, it was First Dude, the stable mate of Game On Dude .  First Dude came up at the wire and beat Game On Dude by a nose! Another second and two photo finishes on the wrong side, but that’s racing. Back to 52^nd spot.

10^th race:  Now decision time.  Alley Hondro was my first pick and he was sitting at 2-1.  If I stay with him I grab $10 dollars and move possibly into the 40’s somewhere but no top 30.  Or I look for a reasonable priced horse and with some luck slip into the top 30 and forsake my finishing goal of top 50.  Maybe a bit late and a dollar short, but played the strategy and went with Lucky Mr K at 4-1.  Alley Hondro won and Lucky Mr K was in good position at the top of the stretch but faded to 9^th.  Side note:  took a long look at Donato but when Simon Bray at TVG picked him that eliminated him.  Always enjoy what Simon has to say but his picks are the kiss of death.  Finished the tournament at 69^th of 300. 

Now if I had done what I should have done in the first two races and would have placed 6^th.  That takes care of the “woulda, shoulda, coulda” conversation.  Overall, I’m happy with my handicapping.  One winner, 5 seconds (two photo finishes), 3 thirds and one out.  

The lesson learned be aggressive and always listen to your instincts and let the racing gods work their magic.

At the Survival At The Shore Tournament at Monmouth Park.  63 races into the 3 month tournament have 13 winners, 14 seconds and 8 thirds for 54% in the money and 21% win percentage. I‘m happy with the percentages for winning and ITM but have not nearly been aggressive enough on the price patterns.