Yesterday in the 6th at Beulah Park, our horse Raise the Bounty went off at 4/1 which is what I penned in as his fair value. However, he ran his usual race of rating off the pace and he was too late in getting in gear. I felt Lumpkins had to rate him closer but then U Ben Thunderstruk did take off. This is one of those races we handicapped it right, got the value, but the result left us $12 out.
Today’s race is the 12th at Sunland Park, it’s the AAmigoCIH40K for 3YO+, the claiming price is $12,500. The field of eight will be going a mile and a quarter over the dirt for a purse of $40,000. The one that appeals to me the most would be the fourth favorite, #5 Catch the Bean ML 5/1.
What makes this 8YO gelding so attractive is that he is razor sharp winning two in a row and actually picked up his speed in his last outing. He has fared well at Sunland winning eight of twenty-four, with a total of fifteen times in the money. He competed in this event last year finishing fifth with a mild rally. Yes, Tricky Causeway finished third in that race, but it looks to me like Catch the Bean was fading in his form cycle. Jim Boss took him over seven races back and he has won three and has four places all in routes. Boss is a steady trainer winning 15% of his opportunities and keeps Arboleda on board, who has won two of three times riding him. Like yesterday, the big challenge for him will be the pace, for it looks like a pace less race. He has shown the ability to get forward but he prefers to stalk, the interesting point is that Arboleda doesn’t let him fall to far back. He has won two in a row in the past, but each time he went for the third there was either a layoff or a change of trainer, so this will be the first time trying without an interruption. They are bringing him back just over two weeks rest, telling me he is ready to go (or starting to roll over on his cycle but he is worth the risk). His morning line is 5/1 and that looks fair for this race. If some reason he drops below it then we pass on him and just watch.
