The field is loaded with talent. There are four horses that you could easily argue a case for: Ultra Blend, Irish Gypsy, American Story and Mildly Offensive. In the end when you look how the race will shape up, it is the perfect set up for Shotgun Gulch.
She is the only entrant to win a G1 race, back in April at Keeneland winning the Madison. In fact, she placed 3rd in the LaBrea(G1) back in December at Santa Anita after being bumped at the start. She has proven ability at a higher class, and that gives her a decided edge. If you want to go deeper, you can see she tangled with with Blind Luck and Harve de Grace in the Azeri (G3), a route and Quinonez had her forwardly placed. I watched the video and Shotgun Gulch held her own until the final furlong and faded to fifth. She crossed the line with the third and fourth horses. Not her distance and style of race and still gave a good showing.
Her speed numbers are in the high 90's, two bullet workouts at 5ft, Mike Smith riding (winning 19% on sprints) and from her last race in May, the first and second finishers have come back to win. That gives us the Key Race angle.
Lastly, will use the track bias at Hollywood Park to lock her in. There have been 33 races for these race types and stalkers have won 48% of them, there is little speed in this race so should set her up perfectly to close down and take it. The beauty of it she should go off at a good price, morning line is 5-1, and could slip to an overlay.
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