7th @Aqueduct 2/29/12

So much for looking a bit too far back on Carnivore. I was surprised that Hernandez took him to the front going wide to get there, especially from the outside. I admit I would have played him at 4/1 but not a great effort. So today as punishment we will play the 7th at Aqueduct. It's a maiden special weight($55K) for 3YO+ fillies racing a mile.

Out of the field of 10 we have two career maidens and two first time starters, which I'll pass on. The one I like will be the favorite so I tossed in a horse that can get a price and has the ability to surprise.

Pick:

#1a Bent On Glory ML 2/1

This Linda Rice 3YO is making her third start after a show finish here at Aqueduct on the inner track going a mile and 70. That race was a big improvement over her first start, the place horse went on to win with a 60 Beyer (key race angle), and she gets a four pound weight break. Linda Rice isn't known as a maiden killer but this filly looks like she is trending in the right direction. The cut back in distance suits her, unfortunately for us the odds don't.

Price Play:

#4 Elusive Rumour ML 6/1

Like the #1a this filly is making her third start, sadly the second effort was a dud. I'm going to toss it as a troubled trip and go with the solid breeding and Albertrani. He has a decent record with maidens, he is putting Alvarado back on and we have the good old sprint to route play. Her workouts have been a bit better than in January, she is off the inside (tough on the inner track) and is stretching out. Madiens are tough no matter what, and I see no reason she doesn't bounce back and win it.

9th @Sunland for 2/28/2012

I couldn't resist so for fun I will offer up today the 9th race at Sunland Park. It's an Allowance race for $30,000NW1 for 4YO and upward going a mile and 70, a field of 11 goes forward.

Money Pick:

#11 Carnivore ML 6/1

The first question will the odds hold? The field looks like all NW1, inconsistent and shaky at best. My hunch goes with what he did as a 3YO. He ran decent back on the east coast, and showed some speed in routes at the G2 and G3 level. It appears as a 4YO he might have gotten lost it what they were trying to do with him. With Weston it looks like he is finding his way back, improving Beyer's, the standard two sprints to route play, and strong breeding.

I also like that Hernandez is still on board, and in his last you can see and in and out play. Weston has a good record at the allowance level, so thinking he is set up for this race.

Changes coming!

I've taken some time away from blogging on my own page. That was done intentionally due to a new job and other factors off line. With the new year things are now more settled and will be blogging starting tomorrow.

I won't be doing the Balmoral Pick 4 unless there is a request for it. What I intend on doing weekdays is to take a race and make it my pick of the day or long shot of the day. I'm still doing the Weekend Handicapping at www.horseplayersassociation.org.

So take a look and hope you all enjoy it.