Going international in the Sunset Hcp (G3)

There is no doubt that the Sunset Handicap (G3) is a wide open affair, with Acclamation out. You can take four of the entrants and make a strong case for each of them. The safe choice, and on that is deserved, would be to take Celtic New Year. You could debate Falcon Rock, Restless Soul and Imponente Purse having a shot at the board too. All four have placed well in graded company, even though none have won a graded event.

Taking that into consideration, and looking for a price play, am going to go International and take first time starter, Ashtar. The prevailing wisdom is to let South American turf stars get one under their belt before jumping on the bandwagon. Normally I would follow that advice. So why now? Good question.

When I look at the four serious contenders, I don’t see horses that are winners. They place well but for some reason can’t get the job done consistently, that makes them vulnerable. Ashtar is a Grade 1 and 3 winner in South America, decent pedigree, has won at this distance, good workouts at Hollywood Park and first time lasix.

One other interesting point, while I’m not one to take too much credence in weights, she is going into the Sunset with a 12 pound weight drop. Lastly, he has more wins lifetime than the rest of the field. Call it a hunch play, morning line is 8-1 and believe he will go off much higher.

With this race will say good bye to Hollywood Park and head to Del Mar!

Shotgun Gulch play of the day @ A Gleam (G2)

The field is loaded with talent. There are four horses that you could easily argue a case for: Ultra Blend, Irish Gypsy, American Story and Mildly Offensive. In the end when you look how the race will shape up, it is the perfect set up for Shotgun Gulch.

She is the only entrant to win a G1 race, back in April at Keeneland winning the Madison. In fact, she placed 3rd in the LaBrea(G1) back in December at Santa Anita after being bumped at the start. She has proven ability at a higher class, and that gives her a decided edge. If you want to go deeper, you can see she tangled with with Blind Luck and Harve de Grace in the Azeri (G3), a route and Quinonez had her forwardly placed. I watched the video and Shotgun Gulch held her own until the final furlong and faded to fifth. She crossed the line with the third and fourth horses. Not her distance and style of race and still gave a good showing.

Her speed numbers are in the high 90's, two bullet workouts at 5ft, Mike Smith riding (winning 19% on sprints) and from her last race in May, the first and second finishers have come back to win. That gives us the Key Race angle.

Lastly, will use the track bias at Hollywood Park to lock her in. There have been 33 races for these race types and stalkers have won 48% of them, there is little speed in this race so should set her up perfectly to close down and take it. The beauty of it she should go off at a good price, morning line is 5-1, and could slip to an overlay.