Last night at Charles Town, American Spice got up for show paying $4.20. The morning line was 15/1 and she went off at 6/1. Not the price we were looking for, but the show pool was decent so if you were inclined a $12 show bet would have worked out nicely. You would have gotten $25.20 for a profit of $13.20. Some say play the show pool is a losing proposition, but with right odds and a good pool, you can sometimes salvage a play. I've told my friends many times, what's the difference if I make $25.20 to win or show, it's still $25.20 returned. That is all predicated if you like the horse too, lukewarm on the pony then pass the race.
Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile. The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).
There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle. Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.
He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga. His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off. His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form. He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today. The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now. 5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th at Charles Town 4/10/2012
Okay, so I checked TVG this morning and there were no scratches for the 8th Race tonight at Charles Town. It's an Allowance race for fillies and mares 3YO+ for non winners of 2 or which have broken their maiden at Charles Town or for a claiming price. The purse is $26,000 and they are going 41/2 furlongs in this sprint.
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
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