Yesterday at Turf Paradise we got King of the Sky at 14/1 off a ML of 6/1 and he finished second. He paid $9.80 for place and $5.60 to show. With a $12 investment, the return was $36.40 for a net profit of $24.40. A good start top the week.
Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.
Where does that leave us? the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.
There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter. We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters. He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.
With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned. So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.
This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Monday, March 26, 2012
Play of the Day: 6th Race at Turf Paradise 3/26/2012
So we start another week trying to find value propositions using the daily race that the DRF tosses our way. Today we are at Turf Paradise for the 6th race. It's an Optional Claimer ($20K/N3L) for 3YO and upward going a mile. At first pass, it's a tough group and I can see several taking it. I like the #5 Holy Saint at 5/1, but I don't see us getting 6/1 or better. The #6 Relatorre is an interesting situation, but again not sure we can get the value we need.
The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.
This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all. The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.
If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?
The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.
This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all. The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.
If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?
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