We are having a tough week getting any action going. Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.
Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for 4YO+. Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races. I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.
#8 Red Defense ML 3/1
There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so. He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record. His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board. I like the cut back in distance and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.
The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1
What is this our third layoff in a row? After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park 03/29/2012
The 5th at Hawthorne yesterday was a repeat of Tuesday. Captain Jack raced well and got a third, but he never wavered off his 5/1 morning line, so he was a no play. That race was highly contentious, and the money got spread evenly among all the contenders, spoiling any chance for an overlay. Today there is no such problem, in fact, there maybe too many choices.
It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event. There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".
I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.
#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1
She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful. You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim. It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.
#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1
Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.
#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1
I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help. This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.
Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1
She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances. Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.
I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.
It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event. There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".
I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.
#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1
She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful. You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim. It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.
#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1
Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.
#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1
I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help. This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.
Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1
She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances. Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.
I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.
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