Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections for Tonight

Last night saw us hit three of four and it ended up being a miserly pay off anyway. Tonight is the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 and going to offer two tickets. Using the selections offered below will cost you $36 and if you hit the “all” button on Race 9 the entire ticket would run you $120. I’m going with the $120 ticket tonight, but will offer three selections for Race 9 if you wish to hold to a tight budget.

Race 7 #2 LoverBoyLou ML 6/1 #5 NJ’s Fast Fletch 7/2 #9 Nash Gram ML 5/1

This is a tough race and if money was no object would take them all here too. We are not even mentioning American Solo or KB’s Robby who both could take this race. I like Nash Gram in this one. A nice paring of 79’s, likes to get out front but has never been on the outside, so that should make it interesting. He picks up Marcus Miller for the first time and Willis has done well with Marcus, .349. Otherwise, NJ’s Fast Fletch would be the one to tag.

Race 8 #1 Dial A Dragon ML 3/1

The Wilfong’s have this 3YO gelding clipping right along. Granted he hasn’t found the winners circle often but seems like he is growing into a fine pacer. He is back to the inside and should find himself in familiar position to pounce on the leaders.

Race 9 #2 Lady Lakers ML 4/1 #8 Cam Town Carrie ML 6/1 #9 Runaway Desirae ML 3/1

If you don’t hit the “all” button, then the one here is the #9. This lightly raced 3YO filly has won her two races and is now moving up in class. I lean to this types and would do the same here tonight. Kristopher Reynolds has a nice record with class movers, .409 and with Roberts they score 42% of the time. There’s plenty of good pacers here including the tough, Lady Lakers.

Race 10 #3 Challenge My Heart ML 4/1 #5 Forcryingoutloud ML 3/1 #8 Accountable Lady ML 5/1 #10 Pickaplacetopark ML 10/1

Anyone of these ladies could win this pace. For my money I’m going to stay with Pickaplacetopark. We had her last time and was set up perfectly to win then had a costly break. She does get the outside post which could be her undoing, but if Todd Warren can straighten her out she will hit a nice payoff. The other I like here is Forcryingoutloud. If you want to add one more horse take a look at the #1 Itzalassi. She is hasn’t been herself of late and is dropping in class and has shown she can run with this group

Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections

Tonight at Balmoral we have four stake races for the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4.

Race 7 #4 Swinging Beauty ML 3/1 #6 Honky Tonk Woman 9/2 #7 Mystical MJ ML 8/1

The first race is a one mile pace for 3YO fillies. This race is wide open compared to the other three offerings, and while Fresh Idea will be the favorite, I don’t see her holding up against this field. I’m going out on a limb and picking #7 Mystical MJ. She has raced very well at Balmoral, nice consistent speed figures and Marcus Miller in the buggy. It might be a reach compared to others, but thinking with her experience at the Park and Miller might give her a big advantage.

Race 8 #1 Lucky Jim ML 5/2 #5 Hot Shot Blue Chip ML 7/2 # Sir Caviar ML 8/1

Here we have a one mile trot for 4YO and up and the field tightens up considerably. I’m going with Sir Caviar brings in 4 wins in a row and stepping up in class. His speed fig’s are moving in the right direction, 94-94-99-100 and see nothing but upside. Lucky Jim is a huge factor with Miller driving and the ability to go real fast. He has been a touch inconsistent and have to go with Sir Caviar.

Race 9 #4 Foiled Again ML 7/2

In this one mile pace for 4YO and upward Foiled Again sticks out. Has won 13 of 27 this season, speed is over 100 consistently and Gingras drives. There are other good pacers in this field but the #4 is just faster and classer.

Race 10 #1 Betterthancheddar ML 3/1 #4 Dutch Richman ML 8/1 #6 He’s So Hot ML 8/1

The last stake race is a one mile pace for 3YO colts and geldings. The #1 will be the favorite and is well deserved. Brennan is driving this speedy colt who will be looking to win his 4th in a row. However, I’m going with #6 He’s So Hot, the angle here is that He’s So Hot has won 3 of 4 here at Balmoral and Todd Warren is back in the driver’s seat. While not as fast as Betterthancheddar, I’m thinking the home track favorite will out fox the invaders and pull it off.

Caleb's Posse enters the Horse of the Year debate

I normally stay out of these kind of discussions but listening and reading all the stuff on who should be the horse of the year based on all the what ifs and what might have been's, it is clear to me that Caleb's Posse has the clear cut edge on the honors.

His record has had its up and downs for sure, but he has won four graded events at four different distances (mile, two sprints and a mile and sixteenth), all his wins have had Beyer's over 100 and took down top horses in each event. Those victories have come at three different tracks, and has shown versatility and the ability to win the big ones.

While not a dominating horse, but one that has shown determination to come back and win, no matter the distance, grade level or track. That makes him Horse of the Year in my book.

Window Boy in the 8th at Parx Today - Analysis

In the 8th race at Parx is 2YO allowance race for non winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter, or Pennsylvania bred not winning two. It’s going a mile on dirt for a purse of $47,000, field of six.

For me there is only one contender in this race and it’s the #6 Window Boy at a ML of 7/2. Not a ton of value but should love going the extra distance, breeding say’s so, and looks primed to find the winner circle right back. Nice Beyer of 66 on his second effort, two key races also here. The place horse went out to break his maiden next outing and Mr. Bowling repeated a winning effort. John Servis has a good record with winners last out (21%) and he keeps Arroyo on board. The #1 will go to the lead, but I believe Window Bay to be faster and can easily overhaul him, and getting 4 pound weight break only helps.

Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections for Tonight

For those who don’t know, I do the Handicap Weekend at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ and with the Breeder’s Cup festival yesterday I didn’t get to the Saturday Pick 4 at Balmoral. So we are back on schedule today with the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4. The races are number 7 through 10 and we are going to stay with a $24 ticket. Here we go …

Race 7 #4 AJS April Doll ML 3/1

There are several females that I like, Toshie Special, Tinkers Dam and Cole Blue but in the end the number 4 looks too good. This 5YO mare is dropping in class with a nice pair of speed figures (78 – 79) and has back to back 1:53 finishing times. Marcus Miller is driving and Scott Galloway hits at .297 with drop downs. No lock but she looks super fit and ready to win it.

Race 8 #6 Hitithard ML 8/1 #7 Detailer ML 12/1 #8 Thrills Sugar Buzz ML 6/1

In this race, Thrills Sugar Buzz looks real solid. Two wins in last three, excellent times and good speed (83-77-83). Todd Warren has been right on in the buggy with this 7YO gelding and while the others can be tough, I see the #8 handling them. You could argue singling him here too.

Race 9 #1 Itzalassi ML 8/1 #4 Temperment ML 8/1 #6 Bobs Minute Maid ML 5/1

This is the ticket buster race. With no budget in place I’d hit the “all” button. In truth, the more I look at this field the less I like them. There are several here that have done by us in the past, but they look like they are out of form. You look at Itzalassi and you see those five wins in a row, then three with troubled trips, can this 3YO filly bounce back? I have always been a big Temperment fan, but she is a far cry from her form of August, so that leaves us the #6. Bob’s Minute Maid is another that has been less than stellar; the only thing that makes him strong is his final times. So in the end, I’m going with Itzalassi to come back and win.

Race 10 # 1 Forcryingoutloud ML 3/1 #2 Mandy’s Gold ML 5/1 #6 Pickaplacetopark ML 5/1

This is a highly competitive group and in the end I’ll go with the #6 Pickaplacetopark. This will be her first start at Balmoral and with Todd Warren driving. She had some good efforts at Maywood and then struggled at Indy. Her back to back 68’s while not the top for this group shows me form is coming into play. The 4YO mare has shown good 70’s not too far back and good shoot through this crowd and take it. I also like Mandy’s Gold in here too.

$25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park Tonight - Selections

This morning I took a look at the results for the Pick 4 last night at Balmoral. I have to admit I took a long blink not seeing one of my selections winning. I believe that has happened only once before, then I looked at the payoff and saw $3000+ and knew it was long shot city. Tonight is the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 and here go … (Note this is a $36 ticket tonight)

Race 7 #1 Boiler Heidi Ho ML 3/1 #3 Vegas Venture ML 7/2

I could single the #1 easily. This 8YO mare has won 2 of the last 4, she is one of the best in the Wilfong barn. Her speed fig’s are rolling along nicely. We have to keep an eye on Vegas Venture, while her speed isn’t there she is a recent winner and Marcus Miller is in the buggy, that alone makes her dangerous.

Race 8 #4 Skinny Jeans ML 5/1 #5 Waiting and Hoping ML 7/2 #7 Redhot Hart ML 3/1

We had Skinny Jeans before and finished 5th after coming off a layoff. Her past speed figures should dominate this group and could single her too. I do like the #5, moving up in class, respectable speed (71-73-76) and has Miller driving.

Race 9 #2 Wolf Creek Pass ML 5/1 #3 Powerful Speed ML 3/1

I like Wolf Creek Pass here, last out he broke before the start and never recovered. Has good speed and John Roberts drives him well. Powerful Speed will be tough with a recent win, not sure how much that last one took out of him. It will be a close race.

Race 10 #1 Freddy To Rumble ML 7/2 #4 Mr Casual ML 12/1 #8 Rockme Amadeous ML 6/1

This is the most contentious race of the evening. All of them have had a measure of success in recent times but will go with the class dropping Rockme Amadeous. He won two back, has Marcus Miller back in the driver seat and Procopi is back training this 4YO gelding. The speed and success along with the high winning percentage connections say’s the #8 can take this one.

Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections for Tonight

Last Sunday, we were well on our way with three winners in a row until Little Kiera decided to derail our Pick 4 ticket. The 5YO mare won at 28-1 and paid a nice huge $59.20 and the Pick 4 paid off at $1267! So tonight we have the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral, and the ticket looks pretty tight so with our $24 investment we have a good chance to snag this one. It will be a beautiful night in Crete so if you are in the area head out there. The Pick 4 starts with Race 10.

Race 10 #1A Major Tipper ML 8/1 #6 NJ’S Fast Fletch ML 9/2 #9 Rocket Dog ML 10/1

This was a fun race to handicap. Major Tipper should be the one to beat. He has posted a nice pair of 79’s and Seekman has driven him into contention in the last two. This should be the race where he nails the finish line. I’ve been a big fan of Rocket Dog and he could surprise here too. The things that l like about the #9 is the consistent speed fig’s, Costing takes over the buggy and with Phillips they have won .339 of the time. He has been knocking on the door and this race fits him well.

Race 11 #3 Special Promise ML 8/1 #7 Reilly’s Daughter ML 3/1 #10 Temperment ML 8/1

I’m going with #3 Special Promise here. A recent winner and moving up in class with DeLong driving. Granted her speed doesn’t hold too many in this one, but she is razor sharp and sits right in this one. From a pure speed play, Reilly’s Daughter should smoke them all if she breaks free.

Race 12 #2 Major Monet ML 7/2 #9 REI Rogers 10/1

I actually had Major Monet singled here but couldn’t find a third to play in Race 13 so added the #9. Major Monet post highly consistent speed figures and solid times. Has been close two of the last three and has the front end speed to go out and hold off this group. I like the #9 based on moving up in class, and as most know I favor those types.

Race 13 #3 Cole Blue ML 6/1 # 10 Maid Money ML 3/1

I found it hard to get excited about any of these in this race. We have been successful with Cole Blue in the past but would go with Maid Money. She has one win and two seconds (by a nose in both) at this level. If Roberts gets this filly out on the front end, has an excellent chance of taking the win.

Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections for Tonight

I want to thank all of my readers for your patience the last couple of weeks. I’ve kicked this nasty cold finally and now back to find that elusive Pick 4 ticket. As a reminder, we play ten horses at a budget ticket of $24. Our goal is to handicap tightly and win small Pick 4 pots. So tonight is the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral Park.

Race 7 #1 Runaway Desirae ML 8/1 #7 Shes Lovin It ML 3/1 #9 Like Your Style ML 7/2

I’m going to stick with Shes Lovin it in this race. She has posted some nice final times and can string good speed figures. Has been in the money 4 of the last 5 with a win and Nick Giberson does well with 2YO’s. I find interesting that Giberson makes a driver change, the shakeup could put her back on track. I also like the first time starter, #1 Runaway Desirae.

Race 8 #2 Powerful Speed ML 4/1 #8 The Evictor ML 7/2

I thought of singling the #2 trotter. This 4YO has posted impressive speed numbers in the past and see no reason for him not to return to that form. The Evictor is the only one that has shown the potential to run with him. It’s a two horse race.

Race 9 #2 Jamaica Hanover ML 5/1 #3 Devachan ML 3/1 #7 Mearl Finn ML 10/1

This is the contentious race of the night. I will go with Devachan here due to nice pairs of 80’s, final times have been good and consistent. You can’t ignore Jamaica Hanover, who has had a good history at Balmoral. Finally, I added Mearl Finn, she got roughed up last out, but can race fast and might just sneak past Devachan.

Race 10 #2 Tinkers Damn ML 3/1 #6 Skinny Jeans ML 5/1

You could feel comfortable singling the #2 in this race. Toss out the last race, and you see a horse that knows how to be there in the end. Adding Skinny Jeans mainly due to the fact she has flashed hot speed fig’s in the past and Carpenter drives this mare real well. If you want to play the fifty cent trifecta, add #8 Kennans Nancy Lee.

Balmoral Pick 4 Selections returns tomorrow night

Finally have kicked this cold and will be posting tomorrow nights $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections for Balmoral Park.

No Selections for Balmoral this weekend

I apologize but due to illness I'll not be posting selections this weekend for Balmoral Park Pick 4.

See you this Wednesday!

Pick 4 selections for Sunday's Guaranteed $25,000 at Balmoral park

Last night we scored a small Pick 4 payoff of $127.80 on our $24 ticket. I’ll take it, in fact, will take those two days a week! Tonight is the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 so let’s get started and see if we can snag two in a row.

Race 7 #2 Lotsa Cotton ML 6/1 #9 Zellers Island ML 5/1 #10 Perfect Timing ML 3/1

I like Lotsa Cotton so much I gave thought of singling him here. His last two races have been solid with nice speed figures of 70 – 71 and flashes the best final times of anyone in this race. The outsider in this race is Big Black Mac who came in second last out showing a 71 speed number.

Race 8 #3 Tinkers Damn ML 4/1

She is rounding into top form and Kincley always does well with her. I don’t really see anyone else here that can challenge this 8YO mare and expect another big race from her. She is always around the money and with speed she should finally find the winners circle at Balmoral.

Race 9 #1 Maplegrove Shaelyn ML 3/1 #6 Bonnie’s Star ML 8/1 #7 Fox Valley Ruffian ML 7/2

In this race which is highly competitive I see the #1 coming back after that last race and winning. She shows great speed and class and should beat this group back as she drops in class. The chaser here is Fox Valley Ruffian, she too shows great speed and finished second to Maplegrove Shaelyn and Husted brings out the best in her.

Race 10 #2 Hereiam Coolwater ML 10/1 #4 Accountable Lady ML 7/2 #7 Fox Valley Malibu ML 10/1

If there was a race to punch the “all” button this is it. Highly contentious and several could easily upset. A true ticket buster for a pick 4. All in all, going to go with #2 Hereiam Coolwater. Great speed, has won two of her last three and Curtin her trainer gets into the buggy. The only one to challenge is the #4 if she finds her form.

Pick 4 selections for Saturday's Guaranteed $20,000 at Balmoral Park

Tonight is the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park. I’m going to stick with my $24 ticket, but must admit almost wavered and add two more horses in the 13th race. I will mention the two that I would’ve added when we get down to that race. The Pick 4 will start at Race 10, and here are the selections.

Race 10 #5 Fools Gold ML 3/1 #7 Well To Do Guru ML 7/2 #8 Big Daddy Woo Woo ML 5/1

This race is an Invitational Handicap so we are going to see some strong entries. Big Daddy Woo Woo should end up being the favorite, but I’m going with Fools Gold. He has been posting strong speed fig’s and won three back here at Balmoral in a handicap race. Marcus Miller has driven him twice and won both times. His final times are competitive against both the #8 and the #7 Well To Do Guru. I expect he will slide off to a good price.

Race 11 #1 Unity Road ML 3/1 #4 Blueridgevalentino ML 8/1 #5 Polaris 6/1

Blueridgevalentino is moving up in class after winning three in a row. He has shown nice improvement in his speed and Carlson has him in a nice groove. While Unity Road will be tough, I like the improving #4 in this spot. The spoiler in this race is Smiling Bob coming out of the 8 hole.

Race 12 #2 Fiveknuckleshuffle ML 4/1 #6 Bill’s Boy ML 8/1 #8 Masterchargeit ML 5/1

This is the wide open race of the four. It is the race you want to hit the “all” button and root for the “bomber” to score and push the winning ticket into the four figures. Sadly, I had to pick three and find a winner. I could argue a case for several here, will stay with Masterchargeit dropping down in class. He has shown the best consistent speed for this group, and Michael Cox does well in dropping horses down into these spots. I do like the #2 a great deal and believe he has a good shot of upsetting.

Race 13 #10 KB’s Robby ML 9/2

This race is a Claiming Handicap and it draws some interesting plays. Right now it’s hard to go against the #10. John Roberts has this gelding hitting a nice consistent speed figures in the 80’s and finishing well. He knows how to win, and see no reason not to take this one. The others here that I liked were, #5 Oh Poncho and #3 NJ’s Super Charger.

Balmoral $20,000 Pick 4 Selections for Saturday 10/1

On Wednesday we got close again to hitting the Pick 4 at Balmoral. First two races came in as predicted, but in the third race, our old friend, Mearl Finn scored. She has won for us before, and it is always tough to leave her off the ticket. She did a good job at 3/1. Tonight is the Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 and got a good feeling we got this one wired. Still holding to a $24 ticket, so if you add one or two more, you still could get some good value.

Race 10 #2 Delightful Five ML 3/1 #4 Major Monet ML 5/1 #8 Omaha Survivor ML 4/1

There are some nice horses in this pace but form is the question. We have had success with the #4 in the past but not sure if he is fading or going to rebound. I like Delightful Five in this spot. The last three races his speed fig’s have improved, has raced well and looks poised to capture a win. The one that could find his way back to the winner circle is Omaha Survivor.

Race 11 #5 Bobs Minute Maid ML 7/2 #7 Temperment ML 9/2 #10 Dawn’s Mist ML 6/1

This is a wide open race, and there are others here that could easily win. In all actuality, I would hit the “all” button. In picking one to play, I keep going back to the #7. She has posted two 81’s in a row, knows how to win and final times have improved.

Race 12 #1 Allamerican Bomber ML 3/1 #5 Look Yankee ML 4/1 #10 Giddy Up Boy ML 5/1

I’m going to stay with Giddy Up Boy in this pace. The angle here is Todd Warren back in the buggy. He has a good ROI with this gelding and I believe he is rounding back into form and has the class edge . There is plenty of other to choose so another race that you could justify the “all” button.

Race 13 #8 Kitty O’Brien ML 4/1

She is coming back off a claim where the trainer has a 52% ROI and Eric Carlson takes over the driving. This mare has been pacing real well, and only a lack of room pushed into a fourth last out. She gets back into her previous form she should take this group easily. Money Runner and Cole Star have to be considered, but banking on Kitty doing her job.

Balmoral Guarantees $50,000 in the Pick 4 tonight!

We start tonight at Balmoral with a $50,000 Guaranteed Pick4! After a nice break, this is a great way to get back into the hunt to pull down Pick 4’s. The takeout is only 15%, and the guarantee is quite a jump from the usual $15,000. The Pick 4 is Race 7 through 10, we’re sticking with a $24 ticket, and the spread will be a 3-2-2-3. The selections are as follows:

Race 7 #1 Hot Laps ML 10/1 #6 Maximus Meridius N ML 4/1 #10 Rocket Dog ML 8/1

This race should be a battle between the #6 and #10, with Maximus Meridius N winning two in a row. You could also add Samstorm if you want to single Race 8. It’s hard not to stay with Maximus again, he is a great groove and final times are really strong, but for the value I will go with Rocket Dog. His last outing was super good, and strong improvement overall. I believe it’s time for him to be a winner.

Race 8 #3 Towne Nurse ML 5/2 #10 No Doubt ML 5/1

You could single this race with Towne Nurse, and I see no reason this 5YO mare can’t win her third in a row. The Cosling’s have her in a nice spot, winning five of seven, the only downside if the track is off, she could be vulnerable. No Doubt could come from the outside and take it, but will go chalk here with Towne Nurse.

Race 9 #1 Primrose Path ML 6/1 #5 Tinkers Damn ML 3/1

A lot of action will go to the #5 and Madison Paige, but I really like the consistent speed fig’s with Primrose Path. Last three races have been in the 70’s and she has reduced her final times in each race to an even 1:54. The last two races she had a onerous post and tonight she gets the inside, with Leonard in the buggy again, this should be her time to score.

Race 10 #6 Fox Valley Phoebe ML 8/1 #8 Frontier Belle ML 8/1 #9 What’sALittleRain ML 5/1

This race is wide open, and if you didn’t add Samstorm in Race 7 and singled Towne Nurse in the eighth you could add one more here. If you go that direction then consider, Sues Blue Pants. If I had to take one here, it would be the #6 Fox Valley Phoebe, she is dropping in class. In her first race at Balmoral she was not threat, but posted a strong 73 and a solid 1:54.4, her best time in a long time. Would consider this filly to be ready, and getting a better post this time out.

Try and try again for the $15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park

There isn’t much to say about Sunday, another repeat of bombers (we even had one on our ticket, Gravel Crusher that paid $77 to win!) and knocking us out. Today is the $15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 so let’s see if we can get back to our winning ways.

Race 7 #6 KB’s Taylor ML 6/1 #8 Triggerfish ML 3/1 #9 Johnny B Cool ML 8/1

This race is loaded with good pacers, but I’m staying with the improving Johnny B Cool. The last three races have shown improving speed (71-73-75) that’s about two lengths a race. His last out he got stuck three wide and still finished second . The one you might want to add to this group is Rocket Dog.

Race 8 #2 Madison Paige N ML 7/2 #5 Nannah Montana ML 5/1 #8 Tinkers Dam 4/1

I originally was going to single this race with Madison Paige. But after looking at it closer I added two strong pacers and finally decided Nannah Montana can win this race. Her speed figures are the best even though she shows to be a bouncer. Her last times were outstanding and should put together a great race to win and get a good price.

Race 9 #6 Sentimentaljourney ML 3/1

He has the most consistent speed in this group, has won three in a row before having an off race. Now shipping in from Indy, and those shippers do well on first race out. He certainly not the fastest but knows how to win, and feeling Balmoral will suit him well.

Race 10 #2 Lets Talk About It ML 5/1 #3 Kitty O’Brien ML 3/1 #8 Towne Nurse 4/1

This is a wide open race and the “all” button is warranted. However, I like the #8 Towne Nurse. She came back off the bench to win going away and posting nice speed and a solid final time. I see no reason for her not repeating today, the one that could beat her is Kitty O’Brien. This looks like a good trifecta group on top of the Pick 4.

Sunday $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections for Balmoral

Last night the Pick 4 paid off at over $4900, making that five nights where the Guaranteed Pick 4 exceeded four figures. Two long shots came through the last two races, not much you can do about it, unless you hit the “all” button, neither one figured in the groupings. So tonight, we will try to get back on track with the a Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4. Our $24 ticket will have no singles tonight, going with a 3-2-3-2.

Race 7 #2A Park Lane Hotshot ML 5/2 #5 Mattoutflying ML 3/1 #6 BH Cullen ML 8/1

I like the #5 in this race with consistent speed figures in the 90’s, Miller is back in the buggy where they won together, and this gelding joins a strong performing barn. The outsider in this one is BH Cullen, rising up in class and Casey Leonard is driving. This horse does know how to win, and gets a positive post here.

Race 8 #3 Osage ML 7/2 #8 Lady Lakers 5/1

There are only two horses that look solid in this race and will go with Lady Lakers. While not winning for a while, she does race consistent speed numbers and goes with a strong driver in Costing. This is a mixed bag and where a longshot can upset the whole ticket. But believe the #8 can strike and win against them.

Race 9 #5 NJ’S Fast Fletch ML 12/1 #8 Truly The Best ML 4/1 #10 Gravel Crusher ML 15/1

In this one the standout is Truly The Best. Had won three in a row until last race, and with a nice pairings of 81 - 82 should find himself back in the winner circles. He run’s real well at Balmoral and see no reason for not winning in this spot.

Race 10 #4 OH Poncho ML 5/1 #7 KB’S Robby 3/1

You can’t ignore the #4 here dropping in class and shipping in with an excellent win record and solid speed fig’s. KB’S Robby is a solid performer and will give a good account of himself, but not sure he is fast enough to beat Oh Poncho.

Championship Stakes for $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 @BalmoralPark

Last Wednesday night we got knocked out on the first race when longshot Miss Blues scored at 25/1! The rest of the ticket went fine with Plum Grove our single winning and our groupings doing fine. The Pick 4 ticket paid $1803! That is the 4th Guaranteed Pick 4 that has exceeded a $1000 in a row. Tonight’s races for the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 will be no walk in the park. We have one Stakes consolation and three Stakes Championship races, all good horses and each one can win. Staying the course with a $24 ticket, here are my selections tonight.

Race 10 #1A Flowmaster ML 4/1 #4 Cole Snap ML 8/1 #7 Fox Valley Yukon 5/2

The first race is the consolation race and it’s a tough one for these colts and geldings. I had real trouble choosing between Flowmaster and Fox Valley Yukon. Both have good speed fig’s, had lousy races last out, know how to win and solid connections. In this case, I would wait for the price to dictate the direction here. So will take the one who has the higher odds, and it should be Flowmaster.

Race 11 #4 Pardon ML 6/1 #5 Mystical MJ ML 3/1 #6 Fox Valley Praline ML 7/2

This is a championship pace for 3YO fillies. Some excellent choices here and we have had several of them to win in the past. Mystical MJ is going for her fifth in a row as Fox Valley Praline is in line for four in a row. I’m going to lean slightly to Fox Valley Praline only due to stronger speed numbers of late. It’ll be interesting to see the tactics between Miller and Roberts since the break next to each other. Pardon is dangerous here too.

Race 12 #7 Power Of A Moment ML 7/2

Another 3YO championship pace but this one is for colts and geldings. A tough group of horses and very difficult to single here, but when all said and done I have the #7 holding them off to score. This gelding had a strong streak going and then fell out of form. It looks like Miller has him rounding back into shape and should have a strong race tonight. Many here can’t be ignored but will take the #7 to win it.

Race 13 #2 BOI ML 6/1 #5 He’s So Hot ML 7/2 #8 Dutch Richman ML 3/1

Here is another tough group in this 3YO colt & gelding stake championship race. I like the #8 Dutch Richman here. We had him in our group back on the 10th win he won and that made it 9 wins in 13 tries at Balmoral. His speed numbers have been rising consistently with Marcus Miller driving. After his last effort he looks like he is getting stronger and should win this race.

The All button for the $15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 @ Balmoral

Last Sunday, scored two nice victories in the Thoroughbreds with Grassy winning the Bowling Green at Belmont and then Sunday, winning the BC Cup at Hastings with Northern Causeway. Then we roll into Balmoral for the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 and get creamed. We hit the first race with Fox Valley Absolut and then zilch. It paid over $4,000 and that made the Guaranteed Pick 4’s over four figures for the week. This is a new week and back to our own money now, and this card tonight is no easy one, in fact, if I had the cash would hit the all button in Race 9 & 10. But with $24 to spend it will be one tough ticket in the Guaranteed $15,000 Pick 4 for tonight, so here it goes …

Race 7 #1 Stormont Caviar ML 8/1 #5 Mad Cow Lisa ML 3/1 #6 POW ML 4/1

POW is going to be my choice in this race. This 5YO gelding is dropping in class and has a pair of 81’s recently. His finishing times and class should prevail over this mixed bag of trotters. Michael Reading seems to do well with class droppers and will play that angle.

Race 8 #5 Plum Grove ML 3/1

This race is like Race 7, a mixed bag of horses and that on paper anyone could win, given the perfect trip. The #5 Plum Grove is really in a nice groove with back to back seconds and improving finishing times. Marcus Miller drives her for the third time and looks poised to win it. So will take the shot and single here.

Race 9 #5 Wand’s Cowgirl ML 5/1 #8 Tinkers Damn ML 7/2 #10 Edita Hanover ML 6/1

Another race where anyone of these girls could win, it’s that wide open. If you can afford it hit the “all” button. After all the hemming and hawing, I landed on #8 Tinkers Damn. This mare knows how to find the board and has decent speed. Also, going with the trainer angle here, Kincley doesn’t have a deep string and his horses do real well. If she gets to the lead she will wire this group.

Race 10 #6 Johnny B Cool ML 4/1 #9 Samstorm ML 3/1 #10 Maximus Meridus N ML 5/1

In this claiming race, five horses are dropping in class. This makes it especially tough to find the right class and speed pairing. Like race #9, if you have the funds hit the “all” button and hope for the bombers to show up. Without that luxury I’m playing #9 Samstorm to win. Last two races have been real strong and feel he is top form, the post is the only downfall for him, but if Wilfong keeps him close he can pass this lot. Of all the droppers, Johnny B Cool is the live one here.

Pick 4 selections for Sunday's Guaranteed $25,000 at Balmoral park

Last night was one of those nights where we can groan that Fox Valley Praline broke up our Pick 4 in Race 11. Then we can smile as we hit a minor Trifecta in Race 10 for $30 and the big bonanza when Sporty Gypsy strikes for the win in Race 12 for $63! So while we missed the $1300 payoff in the Pick 4 it wasn’t a total loss. Tonight is the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 and another bunch Stakes Elimination races with strong fields. Going to stay with a $24 ticket and almost back to zero on our balance.

Race 7 #1 Joinusforsumefun ML 3/1 #3 Devachan ML 8/1 #7 Fox Valley Absolut ML 9/2

This is a tough race and I left off Temperment. In this race I’m going with Devachan, has been flashing consistent speed figures and two back got shuttled back and then last out was an improvement even though being parked out. Third trip for John Roberts and believe he will get him in good position to win this race.

Race 8 #1 Sugar Bunny ML 5/1 #8 Ole Miss ML 8/1 #8 A Nite To Remember ML 8/1

I’ll admit I’m lukewarm on all the choices in this race. Since I have to go with one, I will play the recent winner moving up in class, Sugar Bunny. Wilfong has won 4 out of 8 with this 6YO mare, and has improving speed numbers.

Race 9 #3 GJ Photo Victory ML 3/1

This is an outstanding gelding going for its fourth in a row. He has excellent speed with Marcus Miller driving. This one is as close as a lock as you can get.

Race 10 #7 Won The Battle ML 9/2 #9 Towneism ML 7/2 #10 Bell Valley Zeke ML 8/1

I’m leaning to #9 Towneism with his consistent speed and two wins in last three. Looking for him to bounce back from last race, has the ability to go wire to wire and wouldn’t be surprised if he does. The surprise in the group is Rejoiceandbeglad, who we have had before and has won. But this trio is just too tough for him.

Saturday Night Pick 4 Selections Balmoral Guaranteed $20,000

On Wednesday we got knocked out of the Pick 4 by two longshots. The first one to take us out was Maximus Mereidus N, we had him in the past but thought him overmatched in this one and paid the price for turning my back on him. Then in the last race Tilly Filly went off at 20/1 and won, bringing in a nice $2700+ Pick 4 winner. If you had it congrats! Tonight, we have the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 and all four races are Stakes Elimination races. It means good horses and wide open results. Still holding to a $24 ticket here are the horses we are going with.

Race 10 #5 Mystical MJ ML 2/1

This will be the single tonight. She has won four in a row and the Miller team looks tough here. I do like Toshie Special and Pardon, but the #5 speed just dominates this group of 3YO fillies. So we are off to a good start or done early, I believe Mystical MJ will have another easy win.

Race 11 #3 She’s Automatic ML 8/1 #6 Nina Coleada ML 12/1 #9 Fox Valley Touche ML 3/1

I’m going with Nina Coleada is this elimination race. Tossing the last out and looking at those two strong speed figures prior. Has Marcus Miller in the buggy and last time he drove her, she won. I’m looking the #6 to bounce back and take this field. The other threat is Fox Valley Touche.

Race 12 #1 BOI ML 9/5 #3 Sporty Gypsy ML 12/1 #Playin For Keeps ML 8/1

I’m going outside on this one and taking Sporty Gypsy. BOI will be the chalk and has all rights to be the favorite and win, after winning two in a row and super speed fig’s. What I like about the #3 is he has shown speed to go with BOI, has won at various tracks and looking for him to run a strong one here. He is definitely the price play of the Pick 4, and if he can to the front might just go wire to wire. If you want to increase your ticket and add another look at #9 Cole Snap moving up in class and has all the ability to surprise.

Race 13 #2 Fox Valley Yukon ML 4/1 #3 He’s So Hot ML 5/2 #4 Dutch Richman ML 2/1

This is one of those races you want to hit the all button and look for the big price to hit. There is that much contention in this race. I‘ll go total chalk here and take #3 He’s So Hot in this race. Nice consistent speed, 84-84-86-87-85 and three wins in a row, and likes to get to the front. Todd Warren and Roger Welch have a supper ROI together and should win again. The fourth horse here would be the #1 Fox Valley Mercury.

Get it done in the $15,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Park tonight!

Last Sunday was another near miss in the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4, we had the first three races nailed. Race 7 started out with all three selections coming in and paying a $60.80 Trifecta. Race 8 Joinusforseomefun scored and our single in Race 9, Lookin’ Ahead went off at 3/1 and paid $7.60 to win. It was Race 10 that was our undoing, when Fax Me and Ajs April Doll came in 1 – 2. Our three selections finished 3-4-5 and the Pick 4 paid a nice $230.10. So the handicapping is solid but those two upset the apple cart. Actually I felt when our single hit we were home free, just another reminder how humbling this sport it. This being Wednesday, it’s the Guaranteed $15,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral, our stake is starting to get low, so we need to hit is this week. Let’s get it done this week!

Race 7 #7 Bellvalley Miracle ML 8/1 #9 Itzalassi ML 7/2 #10 Maranatha Hanover ML 9/2

I thought Maranatha Hanover was going to win last out as a favorite. I like her chances here, the only other speed on the front is the #9 which is usually driven by John Roberts, but since he owns, trains and drives Maranatha Hanover, he is obviously staying with her. Got that feeling this will be her night to return to the winners circle.

Race 8 #3 Leutenant General ML 8/1 #7 Lucky Life ML 6/1 #9 Gar ML 4/1

This was a tough race and there are several in here that could upset the ticket, Rocket Dog and Samstorm being just two. I’m going out on a limb and taking the #3 Leutenant General. Beware the shipper here coming in with good speed and class figures, good final times and has de Long in the buggy. This horse should sweep by this group and pick up a tag.

Race 9 #5 Candy N Apples ML 7/2 #8 Fox Valley Smooch ML 10/1 #9 Kennans Kelli ML 9/2

The #9 is dropping in class with excellent speed and class numbers and is hard to ignore here. The post position is the only thing that hurts this mare chances. While Hitman has a tough run of late, the trainer Joel Smith hasn’t, hitting a ROI of .400 with class droppers. She has an excellent shot here and will take it.

Race 10 #1 Kimberely R ML 4/1

She is by far the class and speed of this lineup. Not a lock with Mandy’s Gold and Plum Grove, but this filly has good front end speed and is in the one hole. If she gets a jump she could go wire to wire. She has won 3 of 6 this summer and ready to do it again. For the .50 Trifecta would add Mandy’s Gold and Chevie Fly Bye (dropping down in class).

Good luck and let's get off the "near misses".

Tough ticket in the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral

Last night we had a near miss on a $597.70 Pick 4. We started in good shape with Cole Snap winning Race 10 and then Matt Out Flying solos the 11th. Where we got derailed was in Race 12, when Bring The Rain snuck in and won it. My three selections finished second through fourth, close but no cigar. The last race was a nice ending, as all three choices did indeed come in 1-2-3 and close out a nice Trifecta for $111.60. Our balance is now down to $84.00.

Tonight is the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 and it is one tough group of races. The first race, #7 is highly contentious and we could be done before the night even get’s started. We will buy a $24 ticket but in truth we could spend a lot more and still feel vulnerable.

Race 7 #3 Jackson Berlow ML 4/1 #4 Major Male ML 7/2 # Drive’em Cowboy ML 3/1

The major threat to this group are two horses is #1 Fox Valley Saint and #2 Fox Valley Libero but in the end I’m going with Jackson Berlow moving up in class with Miller in the buggy. He won last out with nice consistent figures and real improvement in final times. In the last three races, he has won twice with Miller driving, I lean to recent winners moving up in class.

Race 8 #2 Odds On Moinet ML 7/2 #4 Joinusforsomefun ML 4/1 #9 Ole Miss ML 6/1

I’m staying with Odds On Moinet again, really nice speed pairs of 83-82-83-82 and last out the post really hurt her. Class and speed are tops of this group and yes, A Night To Remember is back in again and blew our card up last weekend, but the #2 is ready to win.

Race 9 #9 Lookin’ Ahead ML 7/2

This 6YO gelding is rounding into form and is set up to take the purse tonight. Excellent class and speed ratings, closed down strongly from way back last week and the Wilfongs have a nice ROI together. Detailer is a threat and an improving Clapton Blue Chip could set up and take it. Overall, Lookin’ Ahead is the one to beat.

Race 10 #1 Mearl Finn ML 8/1 #4 Fox Valley Oracle ML 8/1 #7 Dee Dee Sage ML 4/1

Several familiar faces in this race and many I like but finally landed on #7 Dee Dee Sage at 4/1. Has been improving with each race, and has the speed and class to beat this group. She likes to race up close and I f she can stay out of trouble should tag this one.

Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections & $2 Miller Lites

Last Wednesday was a near miss. We had the first three races in the bag going into the dreaded single. I had selected Maranatha Hanover but also mentioned that Maladar would be tough, and tough he was winning the race. Maladar went off at 5/1 and paid $12.40 to win and the Pick 4 paid out $288.20. So if you added Maladar to your ticket, making it a $48 play you would had an excellent return. I’m going to remind all readers that the Pick 4 is the best value play in horse racing, and at many tracks the takeout is low. Here at Balmoral it’s only 14%! It just shows that with a small investment and tight handicapping you can score some nice returns … consistently. In time I will go back and figure out if I added those horses I mentioned but didn’t add, and increase my tickets how many Pick 4’s would I’d hit so far. Maybe by next Wednesday have those numbers.

So tonight is the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral. Races 10 through 13 and this card is very difficult to play on $24, so more luck will be needed tonight. So enjoy those $2 Miller Lites and $2 grill and here we go with tonight’s selections:

Race 10 #3 Waltakawalcek ML 10/1 #5 Cole Snap ML 5/2 #6 Bell Valley Bill ML 3/1

I like Cole Snap in this race, consistent speed figures, the last two races were strong finishes and just missed. The connections are strong and look perfect to grab the winners circle tonight. This gelding’s speed and class numbers are the tops of this group.

Race 11 #8 Mattoutflying ML 8/1

The #8 is shipping in from Indy and has done well in the claiming ranks posting strong speed figures. Now in the NW class and should dominate this group Marcus Miller is driving and has had good success in the past. Going to single here even though Voomerang will be looming.

Race 12 #3 Parked Onda Street ML 8/1 #6 My Boy Luke ML 3/1 #10 Onhishonor Hanover 4/1

The #6 My Boy Luke has the speed and class edge here. Nice efforts on the road and now back in Crete. Has done well here and Todd Warren has gelding in a nice groove.

Race 13 #8 Niteinthebox ML 9/2 #9 All American Solo ML 3/1 #10 KB’s Robby ML 7/2

This is one tough race, several recent winners and great drivers making picking one difficult. I’m going with #9 All American Solo. He has won 3 in a row, consistent speed and solid final times. Miller and Morales know how to win with this gelding and wouldn’t expect anything different tonight.

Late News: Finally conquered Saratoga! Handicapped Havre de Grace to win the Woodward, the analysis is at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ Good luck and will see you tomorrow night with the selections for the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral.

Guaranteed Pick 4 Balmoral Selection 8/31 Winner's Galore

Before we take a look at tonight’s Pick 4 selections, I’d like to look back on Sunday results. It is obvious, I didn’t hit it or my Monday blog would have been full of whoops and hollers. It was one of those tough nights were there was so many good horses and the ones left off made me pay for it. First race we hit it with Majestic Royale winning. Race 8 saw Nite to Remember win and I mentioned he might be a factor, and he was, blowing up the card. Next was Perfect Rendition winning and this was a total miss on my part. Looking back over the form this horse had every reason to be in the mix. Lastly, we went single with Little Gus and mentioned a concern with Rejoiceandbeglad, and sure enough he won and drove the stake through my handicapping heart. The Pick 4 paid a nice $1424.20.

In talking with some friends, they feel I’m making it more difficult on myself using a $24 ticket. If I expanded a bit more and used $90, the hit ratio would be much higher, for I could add additional horses. They contend it’s not my handicapping but a too tight of a ticket that reduces the “hit ratio” and they use Sunday as an example. Adding those three horses would have made the ticket $96 and the return would be over $1400. Their rationale is correct, but I explained to them I was trying to show good handicapping skills and some old fashion luck you could still hit the Pick 4. I may change later, but for now it’s a $24 ticket and 10 horses.

So tonight is Guaranteed $15,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral Park in Crete, IL and here are the selections:

Race 7: #1 Itzalassi ML 6/1 #4 Air Sissy ML 9/2 #7 Sport N Lady ML 3/1

I like all three these and would’ve had a difficult time choosing just one. If I had to choose one I would go with #4 Air Sissy, dropping down in class with improving speed figures, Casey Leonard staying with her and the trainer has a nice ROI in class drops. She just feels right in this spot.

Race 8: #3 Accountable Lady ML 8/1 #4 Night’s All Night ML 3/1 #7 No Doubt ML 6/1 #8 Sugar Bunny ML 9/2

I broke ranks and took four horses for this race; it’s that contentious and wide open. I like #8 No Doubt here for she has shown nice speed fig’s, Warren and Yoder have worked well together and she won two back. Last outing she was parked out so will toss it out and say she comes back and wins it. The other one is #8 Sugar Bunny playing the recent claim angle, Perry Smith has a nice ROI with recent claims and changes drivers to Eric Carlson who is having a good year.

Race 9: #7 Ave Marie ML 3/1 #9 Mad Cow Lisa ML 6/1

Could make a strong argument to single the #7 here but #9 Mad Cow Lisa has won 5 in a row and is moving up in class. I have a strong bias to horses that have done well consistently and are moving through the conditions. Smolin is in the buggy and Makin is doing well. Overall, Ave Marie is the key horse here with strong consistent speed figures (80-79-79-79) and has either won or been ITM in her last 7 efforts. John Roberts and Erin Elliott are a strong team.

Race 10: #7 Maranatha Hanover ML 4/1

This filly has been gradually improving with each race, she is trained and driven by John Roberts and her speed and class equals any of the others in this race. She isn’t a lock by any circumstances, the #8 Maladar is tough and has been consistent as well. But in the end the #7 is faster and I believe this will be her night to win.

Acclamation on his way to take HOY honors

We have seen some great racing this season and each of us has our favorites. Sure, there are no dominating 3YO fillies or colts, and in a way that is good for racing. Even the older horses can’t seem to manage to dominate their groups until this Sunday. After the Del Mar Pacific Classic, Acclamation has all rights to carry the mantle of being the best for 2011.

His record speaks for itself. The only horse to win 3 Grade One races this year (three in a row). All three races had different jockeys and he has won on both turf and synthetic. The three wins were wire to wire and the last was a track record for 1 ¼ miles, Synthetic (and he has won at this distance on turf and timed faster). What makes this really special is he is a Cal Bred, not Florida or Kentucky, but bred by his owners and with only one trainer, Don Warren.

With winning the Pacific Classic they are in the Breeders Cup, I doubt he will run in the Classic and will go back to the turf. He has sixty days before the BC Turf and not sure we will see him until then, but if he wins the Breeders Cup Turf at a mile and a half he is horse of the year!

For now though he is the Number One horse in the country.

It's Sunday - Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 @ Balmoral Selections

Last night my Pick 4 got creamed. I knew I was in trouble when Vette Man won the 10th race. I had a bad feeling leaving him off the ticket but someone had to go, wrong one. One thing you learn about race handicapping is how humbling it can be, get cocky winning or getting close and then a rough lesson is handed to you. Yesterday for me was such a lesson. So starting over and getting back to the 3-3-3-1 routine and staying focused we may get back on track. Last night the Pick 4 paid $5608.30, nice pay day! We will continue with our $27 ticket and our balance is now $132.10. Here we go …

Race 7 #2 Towneism ML 5/2 #5 Bell Valley Zeke ML 5/1 #6 Majestic Royale 3/1

I’m with Majestic Royale here. Has back to back 2nd’s and last race showed some form improvement. Consistent speed figures and Leonard does well this gelding. Going to throw out Bell Valley Zeke last outing where he was parked outside. Has strong speed pairings and John Roberts has great ROI here.

Race 8 #2 Fox Valley Oracle ML 5/1 #5 Bob’s Minute Maid ML 6/1 Joinusforsomefun ML 4/1

This is the tough race of the four. Highly contentious and Nite to Remember will be a factor. I’m going with Bob’s Minute Maid to win this race. Smolin hasn’t won with her yet, but she showed great improvement last outing. Her speed figures get better with each race, and she knocked off some time last going.

Race 9 #1 Hitithard ML 9/1 #6 Classy Chassy ML 10/1 #10 Lookin’ Ahead ML 4/1

Another difficult race and thought of singling #1 Hitithard here, but still like Classy Chassy. I went back and watched the race, and she was boxed in all the way to the stretch, she moved up smartly but there was no room to clear, losing by 3 lengths. Her speed stays in the 80’s and Roberts has a .348 ROI with her. If she can get out and clear the field she has a great chance to win.

Race 10 #8 Little Gus ML 3/1

His last race was a nice stair step improvement through each call. Speed pairs well at 75-76 and pushed last out to the end. The one that we need to watch is Rejoiceandbeglad that is moving up in class off a solid win. She hasn’t gone as fast as Little Gus but recent winners moving up give me to pause. Otherwise, I don’t see anyone else getting close.

The ticket looks a bit chalky with no real longshots, but didn't see anything that looked threatening. Looking at Classy Chassy as the price play of the group. So let's finish the weekend of with a nice ticket to cash!

Good luck to all of you ...

$20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections for Balmoral tonight

Tonight at Balmoral is the Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 and last Saturday we hit it! Before we get started, last Wednesday night we missed the Pick 4 by one. Looking back should have taken Toshie’s Place as the single and would have had another one for $290.00. Tonight we’re going to do something different, instead of singling one race we’re going to do a 3 -2 - 2 - 3. This is an experiment, having hit one of three singles, so the idea is to spread the risk out a bit and forsake the longshot in two races. Our ticket is still $27 and the balance left is $159.10.

Here we go:

Race 10: #1/1A Major Monet ML 8/1, #4 All American Bomber ML 8/1, Special Joe ML 4/1

This is a wide open race and was tough leaving Vette Man off the ticket. I’m leaning to Major Monet here with a huge improvement last out coming in second and tightening up its final time. All American Bomber is moving up in class and the trainer hits about 12% of time, add Marcus Miller in the buggy and you have to respect this horse.

Race 11: #1 Popperosa ML 8/1 #6 Giddy Up Boy ML 4/1

Like both of these horses, had them in a previous ticket and Popperosa won for us on the 20th. I’m going to stay with Popperosa, she is moving up in class but like her due to speed/time form and Miller again. Giddy Up Boy showed a strong form improvement, good ROI with Roberts and Kreischer connection, could finally beat them all.

Race 12: #3 Johnny B Cool ML 4/1 #6 Rocket Dog 9/2

Johnny B Cool had a big race on the 20th finishing 2nd in a $4,000 CL event. Looks like is in great form and should be interesting with Smolin back at the reins. I like Rocket Dog here based on excellent speed of 75 relative to the others and rounding into form. Coming out of the 6 slot and Casey Leonard driving, just one of those steady horses that knows how to win.

Race 13: #4 Bring The Rain ML 8/1 #5 Real or Magic 4/1 #6 Drive’em Cowboy ML 9/2

While Bring The Rain looks the strongest of the three, I am going with Real or Magic. Had a good outing in Springfield, his speed and class fit nicely here and the Seekman/Fountane have a nice ROI together of .317. If you’re not buying my logic then go with Bring The Rain. Who ran an improved race last out and is getting Miller for the first time, very dangerous horse here.

With some luck tonight we catch some prices and cash a nice Pick 4. Don’t forget the 50 cent Trifecta on the 13th race. Tomorrow night will post selections for the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral.

$15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Selection ... Chicken dinner tonight!

Here we are, another week of great horse racing, there are seven Grade 1 races scheduled for the weekend. Saratoga with four, Del Mar two and Monmouth with one and a slew of Grade 2 races and Calder is hosting a Saturday of 2YO stake races. Right know I haven’t decided which two races I will handicap for HANA, so if you readers have any suggestions leave a comment. Last weekend, I handicapped the Del Mar Oaks and Sky Classic. Two very interesting races, the Oaks showed us how good Summer Soiree really is holding off Nereid and Star Billing and in the Sky Classic a shocker with Kara’s Orientation just plain ran away from the field. I believe at one time she was 17 lengths in the lead down the back stretch and won by 2+ lengths.

Also, I’m in the last two weeks of Survival At The Shore contest at Monmouth Park. After 120 races I have had 28 winners (24%) and now in the top 20%. It has been a marathon, and like the contest is called, it is a Survival! Now on to harness racing, it is Wednesday Night and that means …

$15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park in Crete IL. Last week we hit a small one of $260 on our $27 budget so we have a bit of profit to play this week. The races are 7-10 and the takeout is a small 14%, so let’s get started with the selections:

Race 7 #2 Mimi McBride ML 10/1 #5 BS Mary’s Delight ML 6/1 #6 Toshie Delight ML 5/2

Like Toshie Delight here, we had her last week and she finished 2nd, real consistent speed and other than Mimi McBride is the fastest currently.

Race 8 #1 Nannah Montana ML 6/1 #3 Kitty O’Brien ML 5/2 #5 No Doubt ML 5/2

This is a tough race, like both the #3 and #5. Leaning to the #5 due to strong speed figures and won last out and Todd Warren is staying in the buggy.

Race 9 #2 Mearl Finn ML 5/2 #7 Perky B Skipalong ML 6/1 #8 Mattjestic Help ML 6/1

The #2 and #8 were part of our winning night last Saturday. The safe bet is with the #2 but going say #8 in this spot. She is dropping down in class, two strong efforts with Leroy Miller driving and knocked off some serious time in her last race. She won’t get off at 30/1 like last Saturday but sitting in the 8th hole she might get overlooked again.

Race 10 #6 Racy Traci Place ML 15/1

This seems like a strange place for the single. But she is dropping down in class, David Fagan has a decent ROI and trains as well as drives. She has consistent speed of late, and while a non winner of 12 here at Balmoral, she just feels right in this spot.

Good luck and “here they come”

$12,841 Pick 4 winner at Balmoral Sunday!

We rolled into Balmoral with one of two Pick 4’s under our belt for the week. Sunday was the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4. Yesterday, I handicapped the four races and listed the ticket. Keeping the Pick 4 ticket to $27, this allows us to use ten horses in any combination. Right now I have been using the 1 – 3 – 3 – 3 method. The concept is to find one strong favorite to single and then spreading out over three horses in the other three races. The idea in handicapping for three horses is to find the favorite, a solid horse with odds around 3/1 to 8/1 and then the best longshot. The goal is for the single to win, of course, and have the largest payouts win the other three races for a big Pick 4 ticket. Worse case, if the favorites win out over the four races we walk away with something. Well last night Balmoral had a super large Pick 4 ticket, $12,841.50. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the right longshots on the ticket. Here is the recap:

R7 #Temperment won going off at 11/1. When I looked at this race, I considered her but shifted over to Devachan. It was a tough decision and no regrets.

R8 #Detailer with odds of 10/1 was the winner. This is another one that I took a long look at but chose Classy Chassy instead. With these two longshots hitting you knew this Pick 4 was going to be large.

R9 #3 Reilly’s Daughter went off as the favorite and shot down the rail to win. This one was on our ticket. Little surprised she went off the favorite the ML had her around 5/1.

R10 #10 Miss Kelley Lynne (who I had in the 50 cent Trifecta) rolled in the winner at 23/1!! I had this race for the single with Forcryingoutloud who finished 2nd. Missed the 50 cent Trifecta with Osage coming in 5th.

As I mentioned before the payout for the Pick 4 was $12,841.50 a monster night! That now leaves us with a profit of $186.10. See you on Wednesday for the $15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral.

Sunday $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections for Balmoral

Last night at Balmoral we hit the Pick 4 for $267.10 on a $27 ticket; the total pool was $23,496.00. Albeit a small score, but hit those once a week allows us to push the envelope on our selections for bigger paydays. So far we have spent $54 and have a $213.10 profit.

Tonight, the Pick 4 is a Guaranteed $25,000 event and again a $27 ticket will be used. The ticket last night started with a single, tonight it will end with a single. The selections tonight are as follows, horses in bold are my 1st place selections.

Race 7 #2 Odds On Moinet ML 4/1, #3 Cam Town Carrie ML 5/2, #5 Devachan ML 10/1

Race 8 #3 GRC Travel King ML 6/1, #6 Classy Chassy ML 10/1, #7 Lookin’ Ahead ML 5/2

Race 9 #3 Reilly’s Daughter ML 2/1, #6 Mattjestic Help ML 15/1, #8 Fox Valley Oracle
ML 6/1

Race 10 #7 Forcryingoutloud ML 5/2

Remember, Balmoral has only a 14% takeout on the Pick 4

Good luck and let’s make it 2 of 3 this weekend!

Balmoral $20,000 Pick 4 Selections and a 1-2-3 day at the track

Tonight at Balmoral Park is a Guaranteed Pick 4 for $20,000, along with it being $2 Miller Lite night. Before I cover the selections for the Pick 4, I wanted to spotlight the results from the Alabama and Del Mar Oaks today. All know I like It’s Tricky and selected her to win the Alabama. Today, Royal Delta made amends for her loss to It’s Tricky last out, and won with a strong effort down the stretch. It’s Tricky finished 2nd. Congratulations to Bill Mott and his team for having Royal Delta ready. In the Del Mar Oaks, the West Coast version of the Alabama, but on turf. I had Nereid winning this race. The result was Summer Soiree hanging on to beat Nereid and Star Billing. So the day ended with one winner (Finale at Monmouth), a second (It's Tricky at Saratoga) and a third (Nereid at Del Mar). Now let's get the Pick 4 and go home happy.


Now for the Pick 4 at Balmoral. Our budget is $27 per ticket. Horses in bold are my first place selections.

The selections are as follows:

Race 10: #5 Fools Gold ML 5-2

Race 11: #2 Dry Creek Striker ML 5-1, #4 Giddy Up Boy ML4-1, #7 Vroomrang ML 7-2

Race 12: #3 KB’s Taylor ML 15-1, #4 Popperware ML 6-1, #7 King Z Tan 3-1

Race 13: #1 Maximus Meridus ML 5-1, #4 R. E. Farewell ML 8-1, #6 Johnny B Cool ML 8-1

Balance: ($27)

No chicken dinner at Balmoral, Surviving the Shore and It's Tricky

Going to start the blog with a recap of the pick 4 at Balmoral, then onto the for HANA’s Weekend Handicap (Saturday and Sunday).

Last night was my first Pick 4 on harness racing, and like I said a total rookie. So here are the results. Race #7 my first choice won, Rejoiceandbeglad. He went off as the favorite and returned $5.40 on a $2 win ticket, not too bad and first race covered. Race #8 is next and Onebrewfortheroad won as the favorite and paid $4.60. She was my second choice behind Toshie Special who finished 2nd. Now two races covered and the dreaded single next in R#9. I took a chance on Cam’s Magic MaeMae, not on her past performances but her being in the 8 spot. As I understand it, the more outside a Pacer is the tougher to win. She went off at the third favorite and finished last. Cole Blue a 12-1 went wire to wire and won by 5+ lengths and killing my Pick 4. Now, as a good handicapper, I went back to see what did I miss? Right now I can’t see any glaring stat that would have put her in any grouping little lone a single. The only thing is two back she raced well at Maywood coming out of the #1 slot where she started last night. Chalk it up to it was her night. So on to R#10. Just because we are knocked out we still have to see how we did anyway, right? The #5 CoCoChino that I had in my group won going off at 11-1!! She paid $25.60 to win. So we snagged 3 of 4 the first time out. Not bad, but no chicken dinner. The pool was $18,893 and it paid $1279.00.

Now the race selections for this weekend Handicap Weekend with HANA. I will say it now, not the Alabama. Why? I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan, she is going to win. There that race is done. Seriously, I think she is the best filly in the country and should win her third G1 (making her the first horse of the season to win 3 G1’s). The field is talented, but It’s Tricky will just grind you down, she is tough, real grit and she is on a roll. The only threat is Inglorious from Woodbine, but down the stretch It’s Tricky just takes them out. So the races are: Del Mar Oaks G1 $250K 3YO 1 1/8 turf on Saturday and for Sunday, we are going North to Woodbine for the Sky Classic G2 $250K 3YO+ 1 ¼ turf.

Lastly, am still surviving the Survival At The Shore contest at Monmouth Park, in fact, I need to handicap three races tonight for Friday. I lost one of two life preservers last week due to sloppy handicapping. Since the goal now is to survive to the end, the risk factor has risen so will require tighter handicapping on my part.

See you all tomorrow over at HANA with the Del Mar Oaks analysis.

Let's go trotting at Balmoral -Guaranteed $15,000 Pick 4!

I will admit when it comes to harness racing I have very little knowledge. My first experience was at Hollywood Park and the first race had a horse named Lucky John V. Now folks that know me will get it immediately, and you can imagine the outcome. He won and it was at a good price, don’t remember the exact amount but it was good. Admittedly it all went right back, as I was clueless on handicapping trotters. Later in life, I was living New Jersey near Freehold, and went to the harness races there. The two memories I have of that track was the gentleman that stood on a platform and wrote out the odds on a chalk board, his printing was amazing. The other, was all the drivers were named Fillion or it seemed.

So where is this all leading? Recently, I had read an article from HANA that discussed Balmoral Park’s reducing its Pick 4 take out from 25% to 14%. The interesting stat is that when at 25% take out the average pool was $7800. Now with the reduction the average pool is $30,000! So that piqued my interest and did some research on Balmoral Park here in Illinois. I had no idea it has been open since 1926 and races almost all year long. It’s a one mile circuit that can seat 71,000 and has a stable area that can accommodate 900 horses, and understand they are nearly full all season. It’s a gem!

I highlight this for it is these kinds of small tracks that have figured out how to market to new fans, offer good purses and see by lowering the take out they can attract more wagering dollars. I commend them for their foresight. One marketing activity is on Saturday nights, Miller Lite Night. Live music and $2 Miller Lites and $2 food off the grill, that’s a nice deal. They guarantee the pick 4 on Wednesday ($15,000), Saturday ($20,000) and Sunday ($25,000). So if you are a harness racing fan this is one track you need to explore. You can wager on TVG if you are out of state and the Balmoral’s website has video of past races. One thing to note, the USTA provides free TrackMaster PP’s for the Pick 4’s at Balmoral.

Now the fun part, I will handicap the Pick 4 on Wednesday nights. For tonight August 17, 2011 the selections are as follows (remember I’m a neophyte with harness racing but it will be fun):

Race 7: #1 Cole Call/#1A Western Bear #4 Fox Valley Ron #7 Rejoiceandbeglad

Race 8: #5 Onebrewfortheroad #6 Toshie Special #10 BS Mary’s Delight

Race 9: #8 Cam’s Magic MaeMae

Race10: #1 Incredible Legacy #3 Mandy’s Gold #5 Cocochino

Ticket: $27 on a $1 Pick 4

Going forward will keep track of my success with the Balmoral Pick 4, good luck and cash those tickets!

Handicapping European Invaders & Not By A Longshot @Suffolk Downs

In researching the analysis for the Arlington Million (posted at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ ), I had read an article on BrisNet, that made the comment about second level European horses coming to the USA and taking down major stakes races. Using Cape Blanco in the ManoWar as an example. That reminded me of the Night School class on Handicapping European Horses. (Night School is at http://www.horseplayernow.com/ and if you miss the Monday class the replays are available) Since imports are part of our horse racing landscape, I would like to share some ideas from Night School in handicapping those imports. The highlights are as follows:

1. Many of the European horses that come to the States are trying to avoid softer course footing, and are looking to run on firm ground. A horse that has been failing overseas when running over this bogged-down turf are candidates for improvement when getting on fast going.

2. Pay close attention to the Euros in their morning work in the days leading up to the race ... are they galloping strongly prior to that scheduled race. A good source for that is http://www.gradeoneracing.com/

3. Europeans train and race daily on softer course conditions; any horse with European pedigree or experience should have an edge on the Americans on softer footing.

4. Euro Bounce: Many theorize that European imports run best right off the plane, but can regress in performance if they remain in the States and acclimate fully to the new training schedules, time zones, etc. This is one reason why I picked Gio Ponti over Cape Blanco in the Million.

The class has other great information, so if this is an area that you wish to focus your handicapping or just improve overall, then check out Night School.

On a different topic, I just finished reading T.D. Thornton's book "Not By A Longshot". It is a look into the 2000 racing season at Suffolk Downs (mid level track in the Boston area). Mr. Thornton brings to the horse racing fan a rare look at the people and activities on the backstretch, exposure to the politics that horse racing deals with and the characters of our great sport. He weaved all aspects mentioned through the entire book and some might bring tears to your eyes. It is a good read, and one for your bookcase.

I will be handicapping for tomorrow at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ so take a look and appreciate all your input. Have a great day and cash those tickets!

Bench Points a Real Good Deal?

At Del Mar, late this afternoon is the Real Good Deal Stakes race going 7 furlongs. The purse is for $100K and there is a real nice 3YO gelding in the field. With only 8 races under his belt, Bench Points has shown that he will be one of the top sprinters on the West Coast. Right now he is solid G3 sprinter winning the Laz Barrera Memorial (G3) at Hollywood Park by a nose and posting an impressive 96 Beyer. After that his connections ran him in the G1 Triple Bend and Smiling Tiger was a power house that day. Again, Bench Points posted a respectable Beyer of 95. So out of 8 races he has won 5, the two loses were at the G1 level and the other was the G2 San Felipe were he ran a distant 3rd. He is one to definitely put into your virtual stable.

For today’s race, I see no reason he will not repeat against this field, he is well rested, good workouts at Del Mar and Bejarano stays in the irons. Unfortunately, a wicked good horse but lousy odds, and one who looks for value and the upset factor. I really had to stretch to find one that might bring a good race at Bench Points. I see only one horse that getting the best trip, not bouncing from last outing, could make trouble and steal this purse. That would be Warren’s Knockout. He has won 3 of 8, including the Grey Memorial Stakes (71K), has posted Beyer’s in the 90’s at this distance. Has raced against some tough horses and held his own, like Prayer For Relief (won WVA Derby G2), Cloud Man and Burns. The issue with Warren’s Knockout is that he is coming back somewhat quickly from his last win and has a tendency to bounce off good efforts. That makes him the classic dark horse.

A lot will depend on the race shape for there is little front end speed in this group. Chiloquin should be the one to take them out, but don’t see enough in him to go wire to wire. The rest will press and not sure if any will take the lead if offered. Bench Points and Warren’s Knockout are both closers, along with Lucky Mr. K 9 (who is dangerous in his own right). If both can stay clear of trouble, and find the lane home it could turn into a fun duel to watch. But in the end, Bench Points should be the Real Good Deal. A win/place wager on Warren’s Knockout at 6-1 or better.

Creative Cause is our new Best Pal

We all know that Bob Baffert is a great trainer, and has a marvelous stable of 2YO’s. Even though, I believed Brigand would continue to show us another Baffert winner, I was happy for Mike Harrington to bring us a great looking horse in Creative Cause. He is everything his first race showed, and Bejarano set him up perfectly. Well done to the connections and we can expect great things from this 2YO going forward. (The race replay is below). Race analysis at HANA

In looking at the rest of the field, my choice, I’ll Have Another went off at a nice price of 6-1 and raced well. Took the lead and really didn’t relent to the better horse till near the end. I expect we will see big things of him too. The big surprise was Mighty Monsoon (Bombs Away choice). He got off to a terrible start, lagged the field and down the stretch kicked into gear. Not sure if a better start would have helped him in catching Creative Cause, but he was flying at the end. Look for him to show up in routes and grass events.

Brigand and Galex were disappointments. Both pressed early and seemed to vanish on the turn for home and Night Tide showed nothing. I mentioned in the analysis a concern about Night Tide grittiness and he showed again no fire. Not sure how I see him going forward. I do expect to see Brigand come back and do well, thinking this might have been a race regression from last out effort. He’ll be back.

Enjoy the race replay and see you later in the week.

BC ignores Belmont and NJ cuts Monmouth/Meadowlands dates

I normally don't use this blog for the political mess that horse racing gets drawn into. I leave that to the good people at HANA and others that are far more in the know than me.

In that vain, I have linked two articles for your reading. One by Steve Crist regarding the BC decision to by pass Belmont. The next one is the new law signed by the NJ Governor reducing the racing dates at Monmouth Park and Meadowlands for next season. He also took away the casino subsidy for both tracks but is still against having slots at thetracks. Reads like the casino operators have Christie in their pockets. Racing Law

Look forward to your comments and will be posting the analysis for tomorrows Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar later today at the HANA blog site.

Tale of Two Races -7th at DelMar

Before I dive into the 7th race at Del Mar, wanted to share a gimmick angle from Marc Cramer. It is really simple and requires no handicapping. Simply look at the handicapper grid from the DRF and look for the one horse that is selected to win that no other handicapper mentions at all. Today in the 6th at Del Mar, the horse, Memphis qualifies. Hermes selected him to win, the other selectors didn’t not even mention him. Per Marc Cramer be prepared for long losing streaks with this angle but when they hit the mutual’s are large!

One other notation, would highly recommend that you place Meistersinger (3C) in your virtual stable. This lightly raced 3 YO trained by Graham Motion raced last week at Delaware in an Optional Claiming event against older horses and handled the field easily. Keep an eye out for him to start hitting the stakes circuit soon.

Now the 7th race at Del Mar. I have had people ask me how I choose my races during the week to handicap. My process is rather simple; I take the race of the day at the DRF. I will admit I focus on some more than others, but I’ve found the variety is a challenge and get exposed to various tracks. So today they chose the Optional Claiming race for Non-Winners of 2, 3YO+ fillies/mares.

When I looked at this race, what made it attractive was that it had a little bit of everything. Two lightly raced 3 YO’s, one 5 YO that was finding herself, and three 4YO’s that have shown they are definite contenders on any given day. Breaking the race down further, it became apparent there was two races within it. There are three horses that were ready to win and others that could wake up and find their old form. So here is a quick rundown:
The three Amigas:

1. Awesomemunda (#5), trained by Baffert. This filly is making its fifth start as a 3 YO and has shown that she will have an outstanding career. Broke her maiden on third asking by 4 ½ lengths and comes right back to win OC62Kn1x. Both wins were at 1 1/16 so distance is no issue. Her Beyer’s have improved over the four races (66-71-76-82). The question I have is has she reached her peak in this cycle? I profess not to be a form cycle expert, but I do know that 3 YO’s usually put in a strong number before regression. Was that 82 it? Or does she hit 90 today and then regress?

2. Elives Lane( #6), trained by Hollendorfer. She cracked her maiden second out as a 2 YO at GG as a sprinter. When she turned three they brought her to HOL and it looks like they were trying to figure out was she a dirt of turf horse? The last two races she has been in routes and her Beyer’s improved to 82-83 and raced cleaner. She has had good works and Rosario takes over. If she holds her form she could find the wire.

3. Toro Bonito(#4), another Baffert entry. She is a 5YO with 22 races, and only 2 wins. Her last win was her last outing clearing the OC40K/N1x. It took her quite a while to clear this condition but this is another horse where it appears they couldn’t define if she was a router or sprinter. Resulting in a miserable 2010 campaign as a 4 YO with a 0 for 9 record. As a 5YO they have settled her in 1 1/16 and she improved dramatically with one win and two seconds. Her Beyer’s have been consistent (81-81-81), and that is what you look for in a 5YO. This race she gets Bajarano who hits 35% with Baffert and blinkers off. At 3-1 ML she is an attractive choice.

That takes care of the first race. Three strong ladies, and I lean to Toro Bonito getting the best of the youngsters. Especially if she holds 3-1 or higher.

Now the second race. Three 4YO fillies. Each one knows how to win, have hit high Beyer’s but the challenge is where are they now in their form cycle. Here is a quick look, starting from the outside working in on chances to upset.

1. Catchy Tune(#3) at 6-1. Cleared her maiden at third asking last year and then won right back in an AllowanceN1x with strong Beyers (81-84). The next two races at SA were strong performances in a stakes and a non winner of 2x with better Beyers (84-88), then she regressed and was laid off. Returned this June in a turf sprint and finished 3rd in a non winners of 2. The big concern for her is all her races have been on turf, and not a big fan of the one sprint to route angle.

2. Downhill Diva (#2). This is the dangerous filly. Has won 4 out of 15, shows a consistent form pattern and has hit the highest Beyer’s of this group (last cycle: 81-82-91-87). She took a five month breather and has had two sprints (May/June), one on turf but improving form and good workouts at DelMar. If she rises above her 6-1 ML, she could be the value play.

3. Pure Class (#1), a recent claim off of John Sadler. Mark Glatt brought her right back in a stakes race at PLN and finished a good 3rd against a tough field. The DFR states that the winner of that stakes race came back to win another one, and the second place horse just missed in the Osunitas at Del Mar. Two interesting points with this filly, is that since she turned four, her Beyers spiked up into the 80’s and Glatt is staying with Sanguinettia in the irons. I know nothing about this jockey, but a lot of good riders are sitting in the jockey room for this race. Last item, she beat Toro Bonito back in May at HOL by 3 ¾. Interesting play if she escapes above her 4-1 ML.

I’m leaning towards Toro Bonito if the price is square, if not then it will be tough to decide between Downhill Diva or Pure Class. Then again, I won’t be disappointed if the two youngsters run off and duel for the win! Good luck it will be a fun race.

Instinctual Winner At Monmouth and gotta love 2YO's

Whoever said, “Less is more” made have been on to something, I was out of town this weekend and had little time to handicap the nine races for the Survival at the Shore Tournament at Monmouth Park. The result was four winners and one third out of nine races. That got me thinking. I have said time and again that I deny my instincts and do too much analysis, which I know believe leads to paralysis. The lessoned learned is, “less is more.”

Two examples of that would be the selection of Romacaca in the Taylor Made Matchmaker (G3) and Coil in the Haskell (G1). In regards to Romacaca, she had won five previous starts; I had her back on July 3rd when she won the Miss Liberty. I took a quick look at the field and didn’t see anyone that was in better form than her. Played the recent winner angle moving up in class and paid $13.20 to win!

In looking at the Haskell, I dumbed (me not Baffert) it down and went with Baffert. His barn is red hot, and since none of the big names being bandied about have impressed me, I took the connections angle and Coil gave one of those Animal Kingdom finishes. The result was a tidy $8.40 payoff. Now if I can just remember this every weekend. Listen to the inner voice grasshopper!

There is one great race to share from this weekend; #4 Winter Memories winning the Lake George (G2), it was exceptional. When you watch it notice at the ¾ pole, Jose Lezcano had to almost bring Winter Memories to a complete stop, after that what takes place is spectacular.



On a handicapping note, if you have not had the opportunity to attend Night School brought to you by HorseplayerNow, please do so. I attended a couple of weeks ago on the topic of 2 year olds. The panel was excellent, well versed and answered all our questions. What I found interesting was the tidbits of information you got when the panelist would talk amongst themselves. I would like to share a few things I learned. In 2 year olds it’s about pedigree, workouts and trainers. In pedigree, look for a high percentage 2YO debut sires, like Tapit. There was a discussion that the dam is now becoming just as important. With workouts, it’s not just the bullet workouts that matter, but also works with top horses and seasoned runners from the same barn. The DRF/Equibase has those workout tabs available. Finally, look for high percentage 2YO debut trainers. Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer are two examples. The DRF has trainer reports and BrisNet supplies the same information in there pp’s.

Lastly, will share one of Jeremy Plonk’s tips, “expect improvement from 1st to 2nd start, especially those who broke from the rail in their debut, or are changing distance/surface/rider or show improvement in workouts.” I would like to add equipment too, blinkers being the big one.

Quick Call from Saratoga left me hanging

Well, I said it would be a tough race and even with three scratches, the best my choice can do is come in dead last. I haven't seen the video replay but in looking at the fractions, it would appear the pace was brutally fast, and with his best Beyer being 81, he may have been just to slow for this group.

I would suggest you put these three finishers in your virtual stable, am sure we will hear from them again.

Congrats to Great Mills and the Asmussen/Leparoux connection. He went off as the co favorite with Royal Currier and paid a nice $7.20 mutual.

Conditions: Quick Call S. , Stakes, $78,000, Open 3 yo, 5 1/2F, Turf.
Off Time: 4:23 Start: 8 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm (Rail at 12 ft) Weather: Clear 80o
Pedigree: 8 - Great Mills, Dark Bay or Brown Colt, 3, by War Front - Oriental Glitter by Glitterman

Fractions: :211, :434, :551, 1:011 (:21.34, :43.80, :55.25, 1:01.31)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Great Mills Leparoux Julien R. 118 7.20 4.30 3.60
10 Fudgesicle Rocco, Jr. Joseph 116 7.10 4.90
3 Bug Juice Castellano Javier 118 5.90

Owner: Millennium Farms
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Breeder: Millennium Farms (KY)
Also Ran: 1 - Nutmegcuveeroyale, 7 - Longhunter (GB), 2 - Fastest Magician, 9 - Shmooz Talker, 6 - Royal Currier
Scratched: Run Arnie Run, Philippe, Higher Court

Saratoga Quick Call

Today at Saratoga we have the Quick Call Stakes with a Purse of $75,000 for 3 y/o’s going 5.5f on Turf. This field is loaded with great up and coming 3 y/o turf sprinters. Of the 11 entrants, seven are speed burners; all have great Beyers and solid pedigrees. When you look at the connections for this race, it reads like a who’s who of thoroughbred racing. There are a lot of angles you can play here, you could eliminate a few based on pole position. Most statistics show the one hole to be a deathtrap at Saratoga, so maybe question mark Nutmegcuveeroyale and Fastest Magician. That feels strange to discount horses from Linda Rice and Barclay Tagg!

You could look at the class factor and scratch off: Higher Court, Run Arnie Run, Schmooz Talker and Fudgesicle, based on them not winning anything more than allowance or maiden races. That leaves us with five contenders. Now the challenge is which one can get to the front and hold up on the Saratoga turf? What if it rains? The grass goes to good or off the turf? This is one of those races you might think to pass on, watch for the ones that are improving and place them in your stable. But then, what fun is that? So here goes my selection …

Royal Currier is where I am headed. He has 12 races under his belt, winning six of them. Last out at Monmouth was his first turf sprint and won 1 ¼ lengths. The Beyer for that first turf race was pedestrian in relation to this group, but going to stick with some intangibles this time. They are as follows:

• Patricia Farro is an excellent turf sprint trainer (21 for 52 with a ROI over $4.00). She scratched him out of a $150K stakes race back on July 3rd and now he is in Saratoga. Not sure if she brought a string or not, but she has no other entries today. I didn’t have time to check my Saratoga sources to find out.
• Shipping in from Monmouth, why? Tomorrow at Monmouth there is a $65k Stakes race, but she brings him up to Saratoga for $75K race. She could have stayed home, and it is Haskell weekend at Monmouth. Was this a targeted race for him?
• In 11 of his 12 races, one of the top three has gone on to win again. I do like the key race factor.
• Bravo comes with him and it’s his only mount for the day. At Monmouth he is one of the best on turf. He is on the Monmouth card tomorrow, so one and done at Saratoga.
• Royal Currier is versatile; he can go to the front or just sit off the pace. He also draws a nice post position coming out of the sixth slot. With a morning line of 5/1, he should get a nice price maybe slip to an overlay.

Today, I go with instincts in a very tough race. Like his experience, knows how to win, raced against winners, and excellent connections. Lastly, have to ask myself, what is Farro up to? She’s not here for a vacation that I do know.

It was an It's Tricky weekend

The weekend of racing or no racing has passed, and glad to see the sweltering heat leave us behind. For me the race of the weekend was, It’s Tricky winning the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks. She has shown us in two consecutive races that she is one tough horse. In the Acorn, she beat the favorite Turbulent Descent and then Saturday knocked off another highly regarded filly, Plum Pretty. What makes these races exceptional for It’s Tricky, is that her competition had no excuses. They both tackled her down the stretch and she beat them back each time. The Alabama is next, and she has to be taken seriously this time. The Alabama could end up being the race of the year if all the fillies come. Right now the lineup is It’s Tricky, Zazu, St. John’s River, Inglorious, Royal Delta, Plum Pretty and Kinda of Spicy. I would like to see some of the sharp west coast fillies head to Saratoga, but thinking most will stay home. If you missed the CCA Oaks or the Acorn I have them below, and yes I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan.






A quick recap of the Survival At The Shore tournament at Monmouth Park. The track postponed Friday’s card till Monday (yesterday), cancelled Saturday’s card entirely. So there were only two days for the tournament. Sunday finished with one winner, Pinch Pie and on Monday, a second with Pasta Lover and Omega Mine came in third. Then on Sunday I participated in the NHC Summer Challenge, 1300+ participants and a 10 race card. The tracks composed of Woodbine, Saratoga, Monmouth and finished at Del Mar. Good races chosen by the organizers and felt my handicapping was much better than the last BC Qualifier. What you learn if you handicap long enough is how humbling this sport can be. First seven races I was shut out, and sitting like 1200 and something. The only saving grace was that they ranked us zeros alphabetically and saved me further humiliation.

Then Del Mar, where the turf meets the surf, back to one of my home tracks. 6th race Maiden Claiming, my selection Basic Logic goes off at 10-1, the longest play of my entire card. Like my dad said, the “early foot” wins more than their fair and Basic Logic goes wire to wire and brings home a nice $32.40 (Win-Place). Finally, a breakthrough! I knew the leaders would try to ride it through for the three qualify spots, so I expected to move into the top 500. No, my new best friend, Basic Logic shot me to 319 spot, and then looking at the leaders it would take more than one “balloon” to get me there. Two races to go and the next up was the Californian Dreamin Handicap with Tamarack Smarty the favorite. I had Norvsky picked and thought maybe a decent price would get me up the food chain. He did win but got knocked down on the tote a bit too much and ended up with an $8.40 ticket. I moved up to 295th position.

One race to go and sitting at $40.40 with the top three at $70. The last race was the San Clemente, Sarah’s Secret was undefeated and looked ready to take make it five in a row. I liked Mizdirection , but she would be bet down as the second favorite. The only other horse I considered was Up In Time, and it was an instinct play but my over analysis said next time not here. They cap the tournament at 20-1 so odds of me scoring with a bomber were not there. I stayed with Mizdirection and she finished second to …. You know who? Up In Time! Up In Time paid $35.00, which would have given me a $75.40 day, but not enough to qualify (but a top 10). With Mizdirection’s second money of $4.20, I finished the day at $44.60 and 275 out of over 1300. What blew me away is that the top three on the leader board got knocked out on that last race. So congrats to the folks that took Up In Time and copped those precious seats in Las Vegas.

Sarah Secret 5 in a row?

8th race at Del Mar, 43rd running of the San Clemente Handicap (G2) over a mile on grass.

What isn't there to like about #5 Sarah Secret. 4 for 4, cutting back in distance, front runner that wired her last race, the Honeymoon (G2) at a mile and sixteenth. David Flores is back in the irons and two consecutive bullet workouts. From a fan perspective, I would like to see her win and then ship back to Saratoga, and enter the Alabama. What a match up, with Zazu, St. John's River, Inglorious and Its Tricky.

Now that I have touted her to be one of the best, is she vulnerable? Well, yes. She is a 3 year old and sometimes you never know what can go wrong. Yes, she is the speed in the race and will get clear of this large field. Interesting is that in the Honeymoon she did not run away from the field and right in the pack at the line was #1 Up In Time (GB) beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. Bejarano (who rode Sarah Secret in the Honeymoon now rides her). This will be her 5th start in the states and she is rounding into form. The other filly that pressed Sarah Secret last out was #4 Bonita Star (GB), she finished 6th and 3 3/4 out. This will be Bonita Star(GB), 5th start, as well, not quite showing the speed or form as Up In Time, but you have to wonder could either one or both be coming into their own?

For me, when looking for the upset, I fall to #9 Mizdirection. A Mike Puype lightly race three year old. Last out finished 2nd in the Manhattan Beach stakes. What intrigues me with her, is the Manhattan Beach was her first race after breaking her maiden, she raced forwardly, got bumped at the sixteenth and did'nt pack it in. In fact, there is a little "come and go" set up here, she ran evenly at 1 1/2 off the pace, dropped to 3 back and rallied to finish off by 1 1/2. Her speed figures are there with Sarah Secret, breeding is solid, Puype is 21% on the sprint to route angle (her breeding says the distance is no problem), and a nice workout over the Del Mar turf. Lastly, Garrett Gomez is riding and he has been hot of late.

Will take Mizdirection to upset but will be just as happy if Sarah Secret takes her 5th in a row.

A powerful source for winners ... those early years

Monmouth Park closed for the second day due to extreme heat and humidity, that put’s the Survival At The Shore tournament on hold. That gave me some time to catch up on reading and other turf blogs. I tweeted about Dean Arnold’s TVG blog about 2 y/o’s at Saratoga coming out of the one hole. It was insightful and gave some excellent tips on how to play them. I also enjoyed Todd Schrupp’s write up on his childhood experiences at Del Mar. When I finished it, I started to think back on my first exposure to horse racing. For me it wasn’t going to the track, even though my parents were handicapping nomads on the SoCal circuit.

It was evenings sitting with my dad in his ’58 Nomad listening to race re-creations. I can still see and hear it. After dinner, dad would grab me and tell my mother, who was cleaning the kitchen, that we had an errand to run. We would go out into his gun metal gray Nomad, doors open , and turn on the radio. He would sit there with his folded up Herald Examiner, figures and notes written all over it. What captured me totally was not my dad winning or losing, it was that golden voice of JR Richards of Horse and Jockey. Today, I can still here his deep voice calling out the shows tag line, “Horse and Jockey a powerful source for winners.”

I would sit there staring at the radio, listening to every race replay, I was so enthralled with it I barely heard my dad bitch and moan about some nag still running up the track. What I did learn from my dad in those days, was that speed wins more than their fair share, he was a total speed ball handicapper. Secondly, I learned the phrase, “horses for courses”. He had Pomona nailed down (now Fairplex), it was a bull ring, so when horses came in from Del Mar or Hollywood and show lousy form, he would pull out his notebook and if the horse showed hitting the board at the ’ring, he’d bet them. He would laugh and say, “horses for courses” and grin like a mad hatter.

So for me it wasn’t the train to Del Mar, the opening of the season at Oak Tree or the afternoons at Hollywood Park, it was those early evenings sitting with dad, in his station wagon on the driveway, feeling the ocean breeze, hearing JR Richards bring home another day of races.

Thanks dad, for those wonderful memories and a lifetime of winners!

Opening Day @ Del Mar Oceanside 100K

Today we have a fun race on opening day at Del Mar. 8th race, one mile on Turf, the Oceanside $100K. 3 y/o non winners of a sweepstakes of $50,000.

Right off the bat, the favorite will be John Shirreffs, Mr. Commons. He is returning from a 60 day layoff after running 8th in the Preakness. He did have a solid effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), being the show horse. He has only raced once on turf, a 6.5f affair in January and ran a with it by 5.5 lengths, hitting a 92 Beyer. Breeding suggests that he should be solid on grass and Mike Smith is back in the irons. I guess what makes me believe he is vulnerable is that he hasn’t raced a mile or longer on turf. Winning routes on dirt is one thing, but now moving back to grass and in a route, I’m not sold and especially at a short price. There are others that could threaten, and while their forms are not conclusive you could make a strong case for Burns, Extensive and reaching out there maybe Moment of Weakness(IRE).

In that vein, the one that has captured my interest is Temple Door. It’s had three races, winning two and a third. Speed is in the 80’s and rates just of the front runners. Even though this contest doesn’t exhibit much front speed, he could end up taking off. He has won at this distance and longer, good works and is trained by Carla Gaines who has a good record with stake turf horses. Add Chantal Sutherland on board and could be an interesting play. Morning line is a handsome 6-1 and anything close would play it.

I've had a tough run in the stakes races of late, so let's see if Temple Door can break it open for me and get back on track in the States.

Sunday in Curragh, a needed change of pace

After the debacle I suffered in the Breeders Cup Qualifier on Saturday. Barely staying alive in the Survivor At The Shore at Monmouth, Friday and Saturday. I decided Sunday would be international day.

If you read my international pick of the day for Sunday at Hollywood Park, Ashtar, you will see I had the right continent but the wrong country. Ashtar came from Chile and looked sharp for half the race, then folded up and came in last. It was all “hunch” and should have gone with the Brazlian, Imponente Purse, the second choice at 5/2. The eventual winner.

But before all that happened, I jumped over to Ireland and played four races. I will admit it was more luck than handicapping for their forms and past performances are quite different. All in all, I picked 3 of 4 and all paid nice prices. It started off with the Irish Oaks, and went with Blue Bunting. I will spare you my written details and let you just enjoy the race.



Then onto the Survivor tourney at Monmouth, there things recovered nicely and had two winners and a second. With five weeks to go, denting the leader board is unlikely so now it is like running a marathon; just finish it without getting knocked out.

For this week, I have had two nice scores: yesterday at Parx in the 8th race. It was on turf for 5f, Optional Claimers 25K/2nl. These are difficult races for me to handicap, for the field is wide open and can make a good case for two or three. I went with Bounding Bi for three reasons, she raced on turf twice and speed figures really jumped up 84 and 82, won last out on grass placed second back in September. The deal sealer was she had a win and place at Parx. So went with the “horses for courses” angle, good grass speed and recent winner. She paid $7.60 to win.

Today, in the 8th race at Delaware Park, Maiden Claimers $30000 going 7.5f on grass. Like most of these types of races, one or two look like they are ready, but in reality, who knows, throw a dart. The favorite, and deservedly sot was President Eaton. Lightly raced 3 y/o, finished third on turf going a mile and 70. Good jockey and trainer connection, best speed of the group at 66, good workouts, and cutting back in distance, was on the lead at this distance. Then I reminded myself, maiden claimers are like women, they can look damn pretty and still break your heart, so went I digging.

I came up with a 3 y/o gelding named Circus. I will admit this was a stretch play. Good jockey in Rose, decent trainer, and used the key race angle liberally. What did catch my eye, was that it looked like the previous trainer was trying to figure out how to run him. The past performances looked jumbled and the last three races were on off courses. He did show flash of speed in two, and all previous races were at a mile. The pp’s showed him up close at the first and second call so used the cutting back in distance idea, throw in good works, and said at 5/1 m/l why not? The new trainer, Triola, has a good record with first timers under his tutelage and turf record. Circus hit the board for a $9.60!

So it proves that when you think things can’t get any worse, a change of venue can make a huge difference. Luck of the Blarney, maybe, but will take it every time.