Quick Call from Saratoga left me hanging

Well, I said it would be a tough race and even with three scratches, the best my choice can do is come in dead last. I haven't seen the video replay but in looking at the fractions, it would appear the pace was brutally fast, and with his best Beyer being 81, he may have been just to slow for this group.

I would suggest you put these three finishers in your virtual stable, am sure we will hear from them again.

Congrats to Great Mills and the Asmussen/Leparoux connection. He went off as the co favorite with Royal Currier and paid a nice $7.20 mutual.

Conditions: Quick Call S. , Stakes, $78,000, Open 3 yo, 5 1/2F, Turf.
Off Time: 4:23 Start: 8 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm (Rail at 12 ft) Weather: Clear 80o
Pedigree: 8 - Great Mills, Dark Bay or Brown Colt, 3, by War Front - Oriental Glitter by Glitterman

Fractions: :211, :434, :551, 1:011 (:21.34, :43.80, :55.25, 1:01.31)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Great Mills Leparoux Julien R. 118 7.20 4.30 3.60
10 Fudgesicle Rocco, Jr. Joseph 116 7.10 4.90
3 Bug Juice Castellano Javier 118 5.90

Owner: Millennium Farms
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Breeder: Millennium Farms (KY)
Also Ran: 1 - Nutmegcuveeroyale, 7 - Longhunter (GB), 2 - Fastest Magician, 9 - Shmooz Talker, 6 - Royal Currier
Scratched: Run Arnie Run, Philippe, Higher Court

Saratoga Quick Call

Today at Saratoga we have the Quick Call Stakes with a Purse of $75,000 for 3 y/o’s going 5.5f on Turf. This field is loaded with great up and coming 3 y/o turf sprinters. Of the 11 entrants, seven are speed burners; all have great Beyers and solid pedigrees. When you look at the connections for this race, it reads like a who’s who of thoroughbred racing. There are a lot of angles you can play here, you could eliminate a few based on pole position. Most statistics show the one hole to be a deathtrap at Saratoga, so maybe question mark Nutmegcuveeroyale and Fastest Magician. That feels strange to discount horses from Linda Rice and Barclay Tagg!

You could look at the class factor and scratch off: Higher Court, Run Arnie Run, Schmooz Talker and Fudgesicle, based on them not winning anything more than allowance or maiden races. That leaves us with five contenders. Now the challenge is which one can get to the front and hold up on the Saratoga turf? What if it rains? The grass goes to good or off the turf? This is one of those races you might think to pass on, watch for the ones that are improving and place them in your stable. But then, what fun is that? So here goes my selection …

Royal Currier is where I am headed. He has 12 races under his belt, winning six of them. Last out at Monmouth was his first turf sprint and won 1 ¼ lengths. The Beyer for that first turf race was pedestrian in relation to this group, but going to stick with some intangibles this time. They are as follows:

• Patricia Farro is an excellent turf sprint trainer (21 for 52 with a ROI over $4.00). She scratched him out of a $150K stakes race back on July 3rd and now he is in Saratoga. Not sure if she brought a string or not, but she has no other entries today. I didn’t have time to check my Saratoga sources to find out.
• Shipping in from Monmouth, why? Tomorrow at Monmouth there is a $65k Stakes race, but she brings him up to Saratoga for $75K race. She could have stayed home, and it is Haskell weekend at Monmouth. Was this a targeted race for him?
• In 11 of his 12 races, one of the top three has gone on to win again. I do like the key race factor.
• Bravo comes with him and it’s his only mount for the day. At Monmouth he is one of the best on turf. He is on the Monmouth card tomorrow, so one and done at Saratoga.
• Royal Currier is versatile; he can go to the front or just sit off the pace. He also draws a nice post position coming out of the sixth slot. With a morning line of 5/1, he should get a nice price maybe slip to an overlay.

Today, I go with instincts in a very tough race. Like his experience, knows how to win, raced against winners, and excellent connections. Lastly, have to ask myself, what is Farro up to? She’s not here for a vacation that I do know.

It was an It's Tricky weekend

The weekend of racing or no racing has passed, and glad to see the sweltering heat leave us behind. For me the race of the weekend was, It’s Tricky winning the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks. She has shown us in two consecutive races that she is one tough horse. In the Acorn, she beat the favorite Turbulent Descent and then Saturday knocked off another highly regarded filly, Plum Pretty. What makes these races exceptional for It’s Tricky, is that her competition had no excuses. They both tackled her down the stretch and she beat them back each time. The Alabama is next, and she has to be taken seriously this time. The Alabama could end up being the race of the year if all the fillies come. Right now the lineup is It’s Tricky, Zazu, St. John’s River, Inglorious, Royal Delta, Plum Pretty and Kinda of Spicy. I would like to see some of the sharp west coast fillies head to Saratoga, but thinking most will stay home. If you missed the CCA Oaks or the Acorn I have them below, and yes I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan.






A quick recap of the Survival At The Shore tournament at Monmouth Park. The track postponed Friday’s card till Monday (yesterday), cancelled Saturday’s card entirely. So there were only two days for the tournament. Sunday finished with one winner, Pinch Pie and on Monday, a second with Pasta Lover and Omega Mine came in third. Then on Sunday I participated in the NHC Summer Challenge, 1300+ participants and a 10 race card. The tracks composed of Woodbine, Saratoga, Monmouth and finished at Del Mar. Good races chosen by the organizers and felt my handicapping was much better than the last BC Qualifier. What you learn if you handicap long enough is how humbling this sport can be. First seven races I was shut out, and sitting like 1200 and something. The only saving grace was that they ranked us zeros alphabetically and saved me further humiliation.

Then Del Mar, where the turf meets the surf, back to one of my home tracks. 6th race Maiden Claiming, my selection Basic Logic goes off at 10-1, the longest play of my entire card. Like my dad said, the “early foot” wins more than their fair and Basic Logic goes wire to wire and brings home a nice $32.40 (Win-Place). Finally, a breakthrough! I knew the leaders would try to ride it through for the three qualify spots, so I expected to move into the top 500. No, my new best friend, Basic Logic shot me to 319 spot, and then looking at the leaders it would take more than one “balloon” to get me there. Two races to go and the next up was the Californian Dreamin Handicap with Tamarack Smarty the favorite. I had Norvsky picked and thought maybe a decent price would get me up the food chain. He did win but got knocked down on the tote a bit too much and ended up with an $8.40 ticket. I moved up to 295th position.

One race to go and sitting at $40.40 with the top three at $70. The last race was the San Clemente, Sarah’s Secret was undefeated and looked ready to take make it five in a row. I liked Mizdirection , but she would be bet down as the second favorite. The only other horse I considered was Up In Time, and it was an instinct play but my over analysis said next time not here. They cap the tournament at 20-1 so odds of me scoring with a bomber were not there. I stayed with Mizdirection and she finished second to …. You know who? Up In Time! Up In Time paid $35.00, which would have given me a $75.40 day, but not enough to qualify (but a top 10). With Mizdirection’s second money of $4.20, I finished the day at $44.60 and 275 out of over 1300. What blew me away is that the top three on the leader board got knocked out on that last race. So congrats to the folks that took Up In Time and copped those precious seats in Las Vegas.

Sarah Secret 5 in a row?

8th race at Del Mar, 43rd running of the San Clemente Handicap (G2) over a mile on grass.

What isn't there to like about #5 Sarah Secret. 4 for 4, cutting back in distance, front runner that wired her last race, the Honeymoon (G2) at a mile and sixteenth. David Flores is back in the irons and two consecutive bullet workouts. From a fan perspective, I would like to see her win and then ship back to Saratoga, and enter the Alabama. What a match up, with Zazu, St. John's River, Inglorious and Its Tricky.

Now that I have touted her to be one of the best, is she vulnerable? Well, yes. She is a 3 year old and sometimes you never know what can go wrong. Yes, she is the speed in the race and will get clear of this large field. Interesting is that in the Honeymoon she did not run away from the field and right in the pack at the line was #1 Up In Time (GB) beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. Bejarano (who rode Sarah Secret in the Honeymoon now rides her). This will be her 5th start in the states and she is rounding into form. The other filly that pressed Sarah Secret last out was #4 Bonita Star (GB), she finished 6th and 3 3/4 out. This will be Bonita Star(GB), 5th start, as well, not quite showing the speed or form as Up In Time, but you have to wonder could either one or both be coming into their own?

For me, when looking for the upset, I fall to #9 Mizdirection. A Mike Puype lightly race three year old. Last out finished 2nd in the Manhattan Beach stakes. What intrigues me with her, is the Manhattan Beach was her first race after breaking her maiden, she raced forwardly, got bumped at the sixteenth and did'nt pack it in. In fact, there is a little "come and go" set up here, she ran evenly at 1 1/2 off the pace, dropped to 3 back and rallied to finish off by 1 1/2. Her speed figures are there with Sarah Secret, breeding is solid, Puype is 21% on the sprint to route angle (her breeding says the distance is no problem), and a nice workout over the Del Mar turf. Lastly, Garrett Gomez is riding and he has been hot of late.

Will take Mizdirection to upset but will be just as happy if Sarah Secret takes her 5th in a row.

A powerful source for winners ... those early years

Monmouth Park closed for the second day due to extreme heat and humidity, that put’s the Survival At The Shore tournament on hold. That gave me some time to catch up on reading and other turf blogs. I tweeted about Dean Arnold’s TVG blog about 2 y/o’s at Saratoga coming out of the one hole. It was insightful and gave some excellent tips on how to play them. I also enjoyed Todd Schrupp’s write up on his childhood experiences at Del Mar. When I finished it, I started to think back on my first exposure to horse racing. For me it wasn’t going to the track, even though my parents were handicapping nomads on the SoCal circuit.

It was evenings sitting with my dad in his ’58 Nomad listening to race re-creations. I can still see and hear it. After dinner, dad would grab me and tell my mother, who was cleaning the kitchen, that we had an errand to run. We would go out into his gun metal gray Nomad, doors open , and turn on the radio. He would sit there with his folded up Herald Examiner, figures and notes written all over it. What captured me totally was not my dad winning or losing, it was that golden voice of JR Richards of Horse and Jockey. Today, I can still here his deep voice calling out the shows tag line, “Horse and Jockey a powerful source for winners.”

I would sit there staring at the radio, listening to every race replay, I was so enthralled with it I barely heard my dad bitch and moan about some nag still running up the track. What I did learn from my dad in those days, was that speed wins more than their fair share, he was a total speed ball handicapper. Secondly, I learned the phrase, “horses for courses”. He had Pomona nailed down (now Fairplex), it was a bull ring, so when horses came in from Del Mar or Hollywood and show lousy form, he would pull out his notebook and if the horse showed hitting the board at the ’ring, he’d bet them. He would laugh and say, “horses for courses” and grin like a mad hatter.

So for me it wasn’t the train to Del Mar, the opening of the season at Oak Tree or the afternoons at Hollywood Park, it was those early evenings sitting with dad, in his station wagon on the driveway, feeling the ocean breeze, hearing JR Richards bring home another day of races.

Thanks dad, for those wonderful memories and a lifetime of winners!

Opening Day @ Del Mar Oceanside 100K

Today we have a fun race on opening day at Del Mar. 8th race, one mile on Turf, the Oceanside $100K. 3 y/o non winners of a sweepstakes of $50,000.

Right off the bat, the favorite will be John Shirreffs, Mr. Commons. He is returning from a 60 day layoff after running 8th in the Preakness. He did have a solid effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), being the show horse. He has only raced once on turf, a 6.5f affair in January and ran a with it by 5.5 lengths, hitting a 92 Beyer. Breeding suggests that he should be solid on grass and Mike Smith is back in the irons. I guess what makes me believe he is vulnerable is that he hasn’t raced a mile or longer on turf. Winning routes on dirt is one thing, but now moving back to grass and in a route, I’m not sold and especially at a short price. There are others that could threaten, and while their forms are not conclusive you could make a strong case for Burns, Extensive and reaching out there maybe Moment of Weakness(IRE).

In that vein, the one that has captured my interest is Temple Door. It’s had three races, winning two and a third. Speed is in the 80’s and rates just of the front runners. Even though this contest doesn’t exhibit much front speed, he could end up taking off. He has won at this distance and longer, good works and is trained by Carla Gaines who has a good record with stake turf horses. Add Chantal Sutherland on board and could be an interesting play. Morning line is a handsome 6-1 and anything close would play it.

I've had a tough run in the stakes races of late, so let's see if Temple Door can break it open for me and get back on track in the States.

Sunday in Curragh, a needed change of pace

After the debacle I suffered in the Breeders Cup Qualifier on Saturday. Barely staying alive in the Survivor At The Shore at Monmouth, Friday and Saturday. I decided Sunday would be international day.

If you read my international pick of the day for Sunday at Hollywood Park, Ashtar, you will see I had the right continent but the wrong country. Ashtar came from Chile and looked sharp for half the race, then folded up and came in last. It was all “hunch” and should have gone with the Brazlian, Imponente Purse, the second choice at 5/2. The eventual winner.

But before all that happened, I jumped over to Ireland and played four races. I will admit it was more luck than handicapping for their forms and past performances are quite different. All in all, I picked 3 of 4 and all paid nice prices. It started off with the Irish Oaks, and went with Blue Bunting. I will spare you my written details and let you just enjoy the race.



Then onto the Survivor tourney at Monmouth, there things recovered nicely and had two winners and a second. With five weeks to go, denting the leader board is unlikely so now it is like running a marathon; just finish it without getting knocked out.

For this week, I have had two nice scores: yesterday at Parx in the 8th race. It was on turf for 5f, Optional Claimers 25K/2nl. These are difficult races for me to handicap, for the field is wide open and can make a good case for two or three. I went with Bounding Bi for three reasons, she raced on turf twice and speed figures really jumped up 84 and 82, won last out on grass placed second back in September. The deal sealer was she had a win and place at Parx. So went with the “horses for courses” angle, good grass speed and recent winner. She paid $7.60 to win.

Today, in the 8th race at Delaware Park, Maiden Claimers $30000 going 7.5f on grass. Like most of these types of races, one or two look like they are ready, but in reality, who knows, throw a dart. The favorite, and deservedly sot was President Eaton. Lightly raced 3 y/o, finished third on turf going a mile and 70. Good jockey and trainer connection, best speed of the group at 66, good workouts, and cutting back in distance, was on the lead at this distance. Then I reminded myself, maiden claimers are like women, they can look damn pretty and still break your heart, so went I digging.

I came up with a 3 y/o gelding named Circus. I will admit this was a stretch play. Good jockey in Rose, decent trainer, and used the key race angle liberally. What did catch my eye, was that it looked like the previous trainer was trying to figure out how to run him. The past performances looked jumbled and the last three races were on off courses. He did show flash of speed in two, and all previous races were at a mile. The pp’s showed him up close at the first and second call so used the cutting back in distance idea, throw in good works, and said at 5/1 m/l why not? The new trainer, Triola, has a good record with first timers under his tutelage and turf record. Circus hit the board for a $9.60!

So it proves that when you think things can’t get any worse, a change of venue can make a huge difference. Luck of the Blarney, maybe, but will take it every time.

Going international in the Sunset Hcp (G3)

There is no doubt that the Sunset Handicap (G3) is a wide open affair, with Acclamation out. You can take four of the entrants and make a strong case for each of them. The safe choice, and on that is deserved, would be to take Celtic New Year. You could debate Falcon Rock, Restless Soul and Imponente Purse having a shot at the board too. All four have placed well in graded company, even though none have won a graded event.

Taking that into consideration, and looking for a price play, am going to go International and take first time starter, Ashtar. The prevailing wisdom is to let South American turf stars get one under their belt before jumping on the bandwagon. Normally I would follow that advice. So why now? Good question.

When I look at the four serious contenders, I don’t see horses that are winners. They place well but for some reason can’t get the job done consistently, that makes them vulnerable. Ashtar is a Grade 1 and 3 winner in South America, decent pedigree, has won at this distance, good workouts at Hollywood Park and first time lasix.

One other interesting point, while I’m not one to take too much credence in weights, she is going into the Sunset with a 12 pound weight drop. Lastly, he has more wins lifetime than the rest of the field. Call it a hunch play, morning line is 8-1 and believe he will go off much higher.

With this race will say good bye to Hollywood Park and head to Del Mar!

Shotgun Gulch play of the day @ A Gleam (G2)

The field is loaded with talent. There are four horses that you could easily argue a case for: Ultra Blend, Irish Gypsy, American Story and Mildly Offensive. In the end when you look how the race will shape up, it is the perfect set up for Shotgun Gulch.

She is the only entrant to win a G1 race, back in April at Keeneland winning the Madison. In fact, she placed 3rd in the LaBrea(G1) back in December at Santa Anita after being bumped at the start. She has proven ability at a higher class, and that gives her a decided edge. If you want to go deeper, you can see she tangled with with Blind Luck and Harve de Grace in the Azeri (G3), a route and Quinonez had her forwardly placed. I watched the video and Shotgun Gulch held her own until the final furlong and faded to fifth. She crossed the line with the third and fourth horses. Not her distance and style of race and still gave a good showing.

Her speed numbers are in the high 90's, two bullet workouts at 5ft, Mike Smith riding (winning 19% on sprints) and from her last race in May, the first and second finishers have come back to win. That gives us the Key Race angle.

Lastly, will use the track bias at Hollywood Park to lock her in. There have been 33 races for these race types and stalkers have won 48% of them, there is little speed in this race so should set her up perfectly to close down and take it. The beauty of it she should go off at a good price, morning line is 5-1, and could slip to an overlay.

It's all in the name - Surviving Monmouth

I love the shore! I would consider myself a beach guy, but when it comes to Friday’s on the Jersey shore, I want nothing to do with it. 23 days of racing at Monmouth Park and Friday has been a riptide to my handicapping. In fact, the only day I missed the board was on a Friday and had to use a life preserver to stay in the tournament. Last night I shared my selections for the three races that were in play. So what follows is the recap.

4th race: This race for $30,000 claimers non winners of three on the weeds at a mile and sixteenth, and was wide open. All 10 were vulnerable and no one stood out. I leaned initially to Lady Kafca. Good speed, Dennis Manning with Elvis Trujillo , but its two last turf starts at GulfPark were rank. Liked Mordecai Jones, who was an Also Eligible and finally landed on Supah Jalene. Speed had been picking up, excellent last pace and finished second last out. Only problem is Fragoso is not a killer jock on the grass. So the rules of the tournament state you can make changes 30 minutes prior to the first race selected. Meaning the 4th race. I checked scratches on my TVG account and showed Supah Jalene was out, I thought about Lady Kafca again, but went with Mordecai Jones. Lady Kafca wins pays $9.20 and Mordecai Jones was the fourth horse. What was weird? Is that Supah Jalene didn’t scratch! TVG messed up, but nothing to get upset about for she came in last. No regrets for not playing Lady Kafca, maybe my instincts should have ruled.

10th race: Another claimer on grass. These fillies and mares were going a mile and sixteenth. This race was a bit cleaner, and Ms. Short Pockets was the favorite and likely winner. I decided to look for a price play in this race and found, Smarti Bobbi. She fit nicely, good overall speed, decent closing numbers, Serpa is a good turf rider and seemed to be coming into form. If you’re new to handicapping, the thing you have to determine with claimers is their conditioning, are they rounding into form or are they fading. She looked like a shot to grab some of the mutual. The form held and Ms. Short Pockets won and Smarti Bobbi finished fourth. Now I’m down to the final race, don’t hit the board here and use my life preserver and have a long road through July not to get eliminated. 24 races without a life preserver puts you in a spot to play the chalk.

12th race: Maiden Claiming, $10,000 over a mile and 70 on dirt. This matchup is any handicappers nightmare. I went to a simple handicapping technique I picked up from James Quinn. Well actually, he would say pass on this race for none fit the profile, but I had no choice. I looked for the horse that finished 2nd last out. Nothing else mattered. So scanning the entrants, not one finished 2nd. All I could do was laugh, so went back on more race and two popped up. Shot Gun Mary (m/l favorite), had finished second in a sprint and the other was, Shesasuperfreak, finishing 2nd at the distance today. The two jockeys were equals, trainers were average, speed moot and then used the old sentimental name play. I have this wicked girlfriend in Canada, and couldn’t resist. So the name fits play it. Shot Gun Mary won, actually cut off Shesasuperfreak down the stretch but not enough for an inquiry. Shesasuperfreak eked out a 3rd and saved my day.

Three races tomorrow at the Shore and a Round 1 for the BC Qualifer, 10 races over Arlington, Hollywood but most at Colonial Downs. Blowing a kiss to my Bet’s and as they say, “It’s all in the name.”

Survival At The Shore

We are 66 races into the Survival At The Shore handicapping tournament at Monmouth Park. Right now my standing is irrelevant for I'm so buried all I can shoot for is finishing it. It is a unique tournament where not only do you have to build a bankroll and fight to the top, for that one seat in Vegas, but you have to hit the board each (three races) day or you're eliminated. Funny how it messes with your handicapping strategies, it almost forces you to chose horses at short prices so you stay in. Hat's off to the top horse player's that didn't succumb to the chalk temptation!

Overall, my results are not bad. While I'm getting hammered on the leaderboard, the results of my handicapping are good. Like I said, 66 races in and 16 winners for a 24% win percent. 58% of my picks are in the money (Win-Place-Show). On flat bets, "to win" looks like this: $136 invested and returns are at $194.60 for a profit of $58.60.

For tomorrow, three tough races, and here are my picks:

4th 1 1/16 Turf Claiming $30,000n3L Supah Jalene

10th 1 1/16 Turf Claiming $20,000n2x (F/M) Smarti Bobbi

12th 1 70 MC $10,000 Shesasuperfreak

Good luck to every one! Will tweet results tomorrow at @theclocker1

On any given weekend

On any given weekend …

Without a doubt this last weekend, especially Saturday was some of the finest horse racing I’ve seen in a long time. It didn’t matter who won, nor did we cash mutual tickets. It was the classic fights to the finish, the upsets and where did he/she come from? Out of all of it, the 72nd Hollywood Park Gold Cup was a gem; I believe it will go down as a classic race. If you didn’t see it, the video is at the bottom. Every time I watch it the hairs on the back of my neck stand up, it is what horse racing is all about.

And that leads me to my topic today, on any given weekend ……

I have been reading in the trades, blogs and tweets that the divisions are a mess, no clear cut dominating horse, especially with the boys. I submit to you horseracing fans that is exactly what we want. If the industry wants new fans at the track or at least to watch on TV, and build a global brand then they need to borrow from the NFL. It wasn’t long ago that the NFL did that by using the tag line, “On any given Sunday”. It was a simple campaign, to instill in the fan that on any Sunday any team could beat the other regardless of record or talent. It worked and today it is a catch phrase.

The horse racing industry needs to copy it and market it globally. There is no greater sport then thoroughbred racing. Forget the wagering, but focus on the pageantry, the speed, the drama of beautiful animals and petite humans battling each other to win. The fastest sport under two minutes!

If I was running the industry, I would be making hay out of the fact there are great horses all over the country and Canada and great races are held every weekend, and the beauty of it is on any given weekend … your favorite can win! Get the fans to look at horse racing not as a wagering sport, but one where you can be a fan, of a horse, a jockey and even trainers. The sport for too long has held itself along the shadows shed row, and now is the time to use its marketing muscle and rejuvenate the brand. It’s that simple.

On any given weekend ….

Battle at BC Qualifier

Yesterday, I participated in my first BC Qualifier Round 1 tournament.  It is an entry fee tournament with 300 maximum players.    Top 30 move onto a Round 2 and from there those qualifiers go on to the BC Betting Challenge at the Breeders Cup and compete for $350,000 in prize money.  The day was set up with nine races, chosen from Arlington, Monmouth and Hollywood Park.

This was a one day tourney requiring good handicapping and looking for price.  The wagering was a mythical $2 Win and Place.  The strategy was simple, handicap the best horse, have a second one for the price play in case your first selection gets beaten down in the odds.   Handicapping done and picks  in place, and the tournament allows you to make changes up to 5 minutes to post.   My personal goal was to qualify in the top 30 and be happy with top 50 finish.  So here is race by race results, enjoy the glory of victory and the agony of defeat.

1^st race:  Arlington.  First choice, The Gardner and price pick was Daisy Again.  The Gardner gets bet down to the favorite, strategy says switch to Daisy Again at 7-1.  I freeze, think too much, get tentative and don’t listen to my instincts. No change. Results:  Daisy Again wins and The Gardner comes in second.  So instead of being in 1^st,  I  sit at 47^th of 300. Cursing myself for choking and vowing never again.

2^nd race: at Arlington.  First choice,  My Baby Baby, second choice was Fantasia.  Here we go again. My first choice gets bet down and Fantasia slips out to a nice price.  I choke again!! This time it’s because I dislike stalkers, and Fantasia is a stalker.  A mental bias that cost me dearly.  Results:  Fantasia wins and My Baby Baby fades to 3^rd.  Serious groan now for I slip to 130 of 300 instead of being in the top 5.

3^rd race: Monmouth.  Top pick was All Of The Above and the other was Rattlesnake Bridge.  This time my first choice holds a good price. Result:   Rattlesnake Bridge as the favorite nails my choice at the wire for a photo finish.  Get a second and move up to 108 of 300. 

4^th race: Hollywood Park.  Straightomidnight  first pick and Captain Sparrow the second choice.  Both go off at 5-1 so make no change.  Result: Captain Sparrow wins and Straightomidnight comes in 2^nd.  No issue with this race, and move up to 91 to 300 and confidence up. 

5^th race: Back to Arlington.  Derby Kitten my choice got off at nice odds and ran third. Dropped back to 103 over 300 but happy how my handicapping was ITM for the first five races.

6^th race: Monmouth 12^th.   The horse I chose,  Labonte scratched and the field shrunk to a short field. Went with Farmer Jones at 5 -2 and he scored a victory.   That pushed me to 49^th place.  Three races to go all at Hollywood Park including the Gold Cup.  For the first time I believe I have a shot at top 50 and even making the required top 30!

7^th race:  Arlington and go with Mister Marti Gras, he went off at a good price and finished second.  That puts me back in the Top 50 at 42^nd. 

8^th race:  Had Fortunate Appeal and second choice was Indy Ride.  The odds for each were so close, did not get cute and left the pick in place. Indy Ride wins and my pick finishes 3^rd.  No shame here, no freezing believed my horse was the best.  Dropped back to 57^th.  Between races did some math on the leader board and figured out if I had switched the horses in the first two races, would have been in 2^nd place! 

9^th at Hollywood was the Gold Cup with Twirling Candy at 4-5.  Went with Game On Dude with Chantal Sutherland back in the saddle.  It wasn’t Twirling Candy that won, it was First Dude, the stable mate of Game On Dude .  First Dude came up at the wire and beat Game On Dude by a nose! Another second and two photo finishes on the wrong side, but that’s racing. Back to 52^nd spot.

10^th race:  Now decision time.  Alley Hondro was my first pick and he was sitting at 2-1.  If I stay with him I grab $10 dollars and move possibly into the 40’s somewhere but no top 30.  Or I look for a reasonable priced horse and with some luck slip into the top 30 and forsake my finishing goal of top 50.  Maybe a bit late and a dollar short, but played the strategy and went with Lucky Mr K at 4-1.  Alley Hondro won and Lucky Mr K was in good position at the top of the stretch but faded to 9^th.  Side note:  took a long look at Donato but when Simon Bray at TVG picked him that eliminated him.  Always enjoy what Simon has to say but his picks are the kiss of death.  Finished the tournament at 69^th of 300. 

Now if I had done what I should have done in the first two races and would have placed 6^th.  That takes care of the “woulda, shoulda, coulda” conversation.  Overall, I’m happy with my handicapping.  One winner, 5 seconds (two photo finishes), 3 thirds and one out.  

The lesson learned be aggressive and always listen to your instincts and let the racing gods work their magic.

At the Survival At The Shore Tournament at Monmouth Park.  63 races into the 3 month tournament have 13 winners, 14 seconds and 8 thirds for 54% in the money and 21% win percentage. I‘m happy with the percentages for winning and ITM but have not nearly been aggressive enough on the price patterns.