At Aqueduct yesterday, Shakeira, our choice hit the board with a win and paid $8.20. This time I didn't get greedy and put the whole $12 on the nose and the return was $49.20! So we have three winners in a row and thought tonight I would toss out a longshot at Penn National. It's the 6th Race, an Allowance $40,000N1X for 4YO+ Pennsylvania state breds going six furlongs on dirt.
I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1. This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime. He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two. Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76. We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs. He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts. Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready. There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them. If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward. No matter is should be an interesting race.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Friday, April 20, 2012
Play of the day: 5th at Aqueduct 4/20/2012
There were no surprises in Dayatthespa running off wire to wire in the Appalachian yesterday. Now if you weren't greedy and played the whole $12 on her you got a nice return of $25.20. However, if you followed my idea and split the bet and put $6 on Firehouse Red to show, well our return was pocket change. Regardless, we had a winner at our price of 6/5 and anytime you can double your money with a favorite it's a good thing!
Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course. There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning. Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.
The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5. She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December. Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today. So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.
Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1. The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP. The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride. She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart? The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim. He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play. Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.
On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable. She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race. You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow. Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off. She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.
From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1. She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race. I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.
Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course. There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning. Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.
The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5. She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December. Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today. So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.
Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1. The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP. The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride. She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart? The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim. He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play. Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.
On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable. She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race. You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow. Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off. She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.
From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1. She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race. I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.
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