I was scanning the entries this afternoon and found an interesting spot play. It's the 4th race at Penn National, an Allowance race($36,000N1X) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going a mile on the dirt. Most like the #1 for the live longshot play, and she is interesting, however when I look deeper into the lineup I found the ...
#9 For Real Too ML 8/1
The attraction is this 4YO filly, is lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row. She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth. You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66. Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins. What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races. In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey. Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Friday Recap and blogging today
I admit I got itchy fingers yesterday and played Saratoga Yankee at 12/1. I know I said 15/1 or better but was getting tired of no action the last couple of days. He broke slowly and then had to swing off the rail to drive for a decent effort 4th. I played a small $2 to place and $4 to show, so only a small set back.
Today I am blogging at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org I focused on the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park. I will do my weekly update tomorrow and then get ready for Monday. I hope all of you have a wonderful weekend and cash plenty of tickets!
Today I am blogging at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org I focused on the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park. I will do my weekly update tomorrow and then get ready for Monday. I hope all of you have a wonderful weekend and cash plenty of tickets!
Friday, March 30, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Santa Anita 03/30/2012
We are having a tough week getting any action going. Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.
Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for 4YO+. Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races. I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.
#8 Red Defense ML 3/1
There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so. He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record. His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board. I like the cut back in distance and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.
The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1
What is this our third layoff in a row? After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.
Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for 4YO+. Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races. I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.
#8 Red Defense ML 3/1
There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so. He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record. His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board. I like the cut back in distance and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.
The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1
What is this our third layoff in a row? After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park 03/29/2012
The 5th at Hawthorne yesterday was a repeat of Tuesday. Captain Jack raced well and got a third, but he never wavered off his 5/1 morning line, so he was a no play. That race was highly contentious, and the money got spread evenly among all the contenders, spoiling any chance for an overlay. Today there is no such problem, in fact, there maybe too many choices.
It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event. There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".
I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.
#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1
She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful. You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim. It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.
#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1
Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.
#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1
I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help. This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.
Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1
She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances. Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.
I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.
It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event. There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".
I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.
#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1
She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful. You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim. It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.
#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1
Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.
#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1
I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help. This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.
Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1
She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances. Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.
I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Play of the Day: 5th Race at Hawthorne 3/28/2012
Last night at Charles Town, Stop the Bull came in second on a dead heat. Unfortunately, he went off at his morning line of 5/1, and we needed a lot better than that to take the risk. The selection worked but the value didn't. So in the end he would have been a no play.
Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne. It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.
This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year. The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72. In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value. The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back. Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.
I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.
Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne. It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.
This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year. The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72. In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value. The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back. Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.
I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Charles Town 03/27/2012
Yesterday at Turf Paradise we got King of the Sky at 14/1 off a ML of 6/1 and he finished second. He paid $9.80 for place and $5.60 to show. With a $12 investment, the return was $36.40 for a net profit of $24.40. A good start top the week.
Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.
Where does that leave us? the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.
There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter. We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters. He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.
With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned. So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.
This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.
Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.
Where does that leave us? the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.
There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter. We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters. He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.
With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned. So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.
This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Play of the Day: 6th Race at Turf Paradise 3/26/2012
So we start another week trying to find value propositions using the daily race that the DRF tosses our way. Today we are at Turf Paradise for the 6th race. It's an Optional Claimer ($20K/N3L) for 3YO and upward going a mile. At first pass, it's a tough group and I can see several taking it. I like the #5 Holy Saint at 5/1, but I don't see us getting 6/1 or better. The #6 Relatorre is an interesting situation, but again not sure we can get the value we need.
The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.
This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all. The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.
If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?
The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.
This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all. The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.
If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/25/12
Friday at Santa Anita we got our odds but like Thursday we didn't the result. The interesting thing is at the track, I shifted my entire play to the #5 Tones(IRE) ML 4/1. When looking at the PP's he was a good looking horse, but at 4/1 there was no strong value. However, at race time he moved to 10/1 and that is an overlay. I played him with a stack bet and he came in second returning, $10.40 for place and $5.40 for show a total of $37 on a $12 investment. Sadly, that is not what I wrote, so it is a big zero for the day.
For the week we had a place and a win. We invested a total of $42, returned $65 for a profit of $23.20. The carryover from the week before was a positive $30.40 bringing our grand total so far to, $53.60. At this pace I can buy a tank a gas! Today, I will be doing the analysis on the Sunland Derby at horseplayersassociation.org.
See you all tomorrow!
For the week we had a place and a win. We invested a total of $42, returned $65 for a profit of $23.20. The carryover from the week before was a positive $30.40 bringing our grand total so far to, $53.60. At this pace I can buy a tank a gas! Today, I will be doing the analysis on the Sunland Derby at horseplayersassociation.org.
See you all tomorrow!
Friday, March 23, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th Race at Santa Anita 3/23/2012
Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.
It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse. This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it. I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.
The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass. Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass. Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.
Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1. We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher. He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help. Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one. It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one? His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.
Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1. Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher. The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share. So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch. Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall. I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the mix.
So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.
Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.
It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse. This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it. I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.
The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass. Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass. Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.
Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1. We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher. He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help. Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one. It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one? His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.
Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1. Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher. The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share. So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch. Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall. I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the mix.
So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.
Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Play of the Day: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 03/22/2012
Yesterday turned out to be a no play day with our scratch at Aqueduct. In fact, three of the seven decided to be no go's in that stakes race. I hope the horses are fine, and Strike the Moon got hammered at the windows and the result showed it, placing third.
Today, we head down I-95 to Gulfstream Park and look at the 6th Race. It's a Maiden Special Weights for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on grass for a purse of $60,000. This is a good field and a lot of contention, there are no real glaring angles here, so we have to dig deeper. I like two of them, and the action at the tote will decide the direction. First one I like is ...
#5 Grouse ML 5/1
Hard not to like a Chad Brown entry at 5/1. This will be his third start and is stretching out a bit more. His last effort showed nice improvement, not only in his Beyer, but in his call slots, notice he ran closer up than his first effort. This will be his first spin on the weeds, but breeding says it should be fine. Also, there are some key races in his past, he has run against some good company. Leparoux is back on him, a good sign, Labaroux is hitting 16% on grass and 33% with Brown. One more point, is Chad Brown numbers with Turf, MSW and horses coming off short layoffs are excellent. The only issues is do we get 5/1? Probably not, but if he does or drifts higher then I play $2 to win $4 to place.
For value, I'll take the first time starter #7 Act of War(IRE) ML 10/1
The breeding suggest he is a good one, Lasix added and Garoffalo puts Velazquez on for the debut. I know Garoffalo doesn't have the greatest 1st time starter record, but his other stats are good. He is not a lock by any means, but it's an interesting situation for this first time starter. If we get our odds on Grouse, then I would put $6 to show on the #7 at 10/1 or higher, and I stress the higher. Lower no play.
There are other interesting entries, the #5 is a possible too. With this much contention and no overt angle play, things do get muddy. In the end, Grouse if we get the action, otherwise the #7 for a show play.
Today, we head down I-95 to Gulfstream Park and look at the 6th Race. It's a Maiden Special Weights for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on grass for a purse of $60,000. This is a good field and a lot of contention, there are no real glaring angles here, so we have to dig deeper. I like two of them, and the action at the tote will decide the direction. First one I like is ...
#5 Grouse ML 5/1
Hard not to like a Chad Brown entry at 5/1. This will be his third start and is stretching out a bit more. His last effort showed nice improvement, not only in his Beyer, but in his call slots, notice he ran closer up than his first effort. This will be his first spin on the weeds, but breeding says it should be fine. Also, there are some key races in his past, he has run against some good company. Leparoux is back on him, a good sign, Labaroux is hitting 16% on grass and 33% with Brown. One more point, is Chad Brown numbers with Turf, MSW and horses coming off short layoffs are excellent. The only issues is do we get 5/1? Probably not, but if he does or drifts higher then I play $2 to win $4 to place.
For value, I'll take the first time starter #7 Act of War(IRE) ML 10/1
The breeding suggest he is a good one, Lasix added and Garoffalo puts Velazquez on for the debut. I know Garoffalo doesn't have the greatest 1st time starter record, but his other stats are good. He is not a lock by any means, but it's an interesting situation for this first time starter. If we get our odds on Grouse, then I would put $6 to show on the #7 at 10/1 or higher, and I stress the higher. Lower no play.
There are other interesting entries, the #5 is a possible too. With this much contention and no overt angle play, things do get muddy. In the end, Grouse if we get the action, otherwise the #7 for a show play.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Pick of the Day: 8th @Aqueduct 03/21/12
We had a nice score yesterday at Parx, with Schist winning, paying $20.00! and we got our 9/1 so a stack bet would have been played. A $12.00 investment would have returned, $43.60, giving us a profit of $31.60. So far this week, we have a place and a win, not too bad of a start. Today, we go to Aqueduct and look at the Lynclar Stakes ($75K) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going 6 Furlongs. There are several good horses in this field, and I like the #5 Strike the Moon ML 5/1, if we could get better than 5/1 I might be inclined to play her. I'm sure the tote will not give us any value on her, so I looked outside for anyone to upset the top contenders.
The one that fits the bill is #6 Isn't She Grand ML 10/1
She is one tough 5YO with two wins in her last three on the inner track at Aqueduct. Her speed is comparable to these, even though she does get wonky at times. She has some decent efforts at this level, and has won two in a row at the starter level. I like horses that are sharp and moving back up a notch. Rudy Rodriguez has a solid record with horses winning their last outings, and I do like that Velasquez is still in the irons. She will hustle to the front, and has a way of winning. If the tote floats over 10/1 it would be an interesting proposition, any thing less no play.
The one that fits the bill is #6 Isn't She Grand ML 10/1
She is one tough 5YO with two wins in her last three on the inner track at Aqueduct. Her speed is comparable to these, even though she does get wonky at times. She has some decent efforts at this level, and has won two in a row at the starter level. I like horses that are sharp and moving back up a notch. Rudy Rodriguez has a solid record with horses winning their last outings, and I do like that Velasquez is still in the irons. She will hustle to the front, and has a way of winning. If the tote floats over 10/1 it would be an interesting proposition, any thing less no play.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th Race at Parx 03/20/12
Last night at Mountaineer we had Magnificent Mile going off at 5/1, and he finished second. I would have liked to have seen 8/1 or better, but the tote held firm, and the show pool looked weak. Regardless, let's say we wanted the action, still liked him and we took a stack play on him ($2W,$4P,$6S). We put $12, and taking the risk that if he comes in third we are going to take a bath. The result is we get a return of $21.60 for a profit of $9.60. Not too bad, but not sure the risk was worth it on a $5000 claimer race.
Today, we try Parx Racing. It's the 7th race, going a mile and 70 yards for 3YO maidens, MSW$45,000.
Most of the money should go to the Dutrow entry #6 Yoginis, and with any luck my selection the #7 Schist might rise above the ML of 6/1. The angle here is a hot trainer, Cathal Lynch, who hits 21% on MSW, and 36% 1st claim. She puts Arroyo on board that does well with her horses and has a good maiden record, as well. Playing Maiden Claimers back to Maiden Special Weights is a risky proposition, especially after a dull performance, and stretching out. This is strictly an overlay play, we must get better than 6/1, thinking 9/1 or higher or there is NO play.
Looking at any others in here that can beat the #6, I like the #9 Lookiingatlangfurhr. Nice second effort, and grabbed second ahead of Yoginis.
Today, we try Parx Racing. It's the 7th race, going a mile and 70 yards for 3YO maidens, MSW$45,000.
Most of the money should go to the Dutrow entry #6 Yoginis, and with any luck my selection the #7 Schist might rise above the ML of 6/1. The angle here is a hot trainer, Cathal Lynch, who hits 21% on MSW, and 36% 1st claim. She puts Arroyo on board that does well with her horses and has a good maiden record, as well. Playing Maiden Claimers back to Maiden Special Weights is a risky proposition, especially after a dull performance, and stretching out. This is strictly an overlay play, we must get better than 6/1, thinking 9/1 or higher or there is NO play.
Looking at any others in here that can beat the #6, I like the #9 Lookiingatlangfurhr. Nice second effort, and grabbed second ahead of Yoginis.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Play of the Day: 2nd Race at Mountaineer Park
Today we start the week with some night racing at Mountaineer Park. Our play of the day comes from the 2nd race going 6 furlongs, $5000 claiming for fillies and mares, 3YO and upward. Straight claimer, no conditions.
#3 Magnificent Mile ML 8/1
This 4YO is shipping from Beulah and is 2 for 3 in 2012. Improving Beyer's and looks to be in the middle of a nice form cycle. The place horse in his last went on to win next outing with a 56 Beyer. Melvin Davis takes over and has an excellent claimer record and puts the Mountaineer best jockey on board, Parker. 8/1 is a square price and if we can get 10/1 then he would be a stack bet.
#3 Magnificent Mile ML 8/1
This 4YO is shipping from Beulah and is 2 for 3 in 2012. Improving Beyer's and looks to be in the middle of a nice form cycle. The place horse in his last went on to win next outing with a 56 Beyer. Melvin Davis takes over and has an excellent claimer record and puts the Mountaineer best jockey on board, Parker. 8/1 is a square price and if we can get 10/1 then he would be a stack bet.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Trips and Traps for Aqueduct 03/15/12
I tried to embed this weeks Trips and Traps and it doesn't work. You can go to You Tube and put in the search box: Trips and Traps - 03/15/2012. See you all tomorrow.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/17/12
Going to change how I recap the week. To get a better gauge how we are doing, I will list each race and the money won or lost.
Monday: Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.
Tuesday: Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.
Wednesday: Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.
Thursday: Sportswriter at Aqueduct. No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).
Friday: Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.
Bet: $26 Cashed: $56.40 Profit: $30.40
Monday: Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.
Tuesday: Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.
Wednesday: Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.
Thursday: Sportswriter at Aqueduct. No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).
Friday: Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.
Bet: $26 Cashed: $56.40 Profit: $30.40
Friday, March 16, 2012
Play(s) of the Day: 9th race @Fair Grounds
What a week! Wednesday we get the right price but the wrong result, then yesterday at Aqueduct we get the right result but the wrong price. The #3 scratches out and he would have been the favorite, and that opens the door for our selection to go from 7/2 morning line to 4/5 at post time. Needless to say, there would have been no bet, but it's still nice to pick a winner, even if it's chalk.
Today, we will run down to the Fair Grounds and play the 9th Race. It's a $5000 claimer for 4YO and upwards going a mile and sixteenth. The conditions of this race allow for some real salty entries. I admit, I don't handicap low level claimers because the form cycle is so hard to spot. However, if you can figure it out these type of races bring the best value. In this one, there are two of interest, and like always the tote will dictate the action.
From a pure angle play, the #11 Random Move ML 9/2 fits the bill. This 5YO gelding is shipping in from Delta Downs, were he had three tough races, the last won he held on to third. He get's the hot jockey in Rosie Napravnik and his trainer, Jonas Gibson has done well at the Fair Grounds with his limited barn. I know Smashin Thru has handled twice in those three races, and his speed sits in the mid 50 low 60's, but looking at the past, he seems to find something extra here at the FG. If he goes to 8/1 or higher he would be an intriguing play.
Next one is the #8 Pharme Legend ML 10/1. Out of the gate the price is there and suspect it will go higher by post time. What makes him attractive is we have a lightly race 4YO, who has done well for himself. Won 3 of 13 and in the money 7 times. That record is from Texas at Retama, and his first two spins at the Fair Grounds have been lackluster. So why today? I like the jockey switch to Shane Sellers, his last work out here at FG was a bullet, he raced better at the first two calls last out. I know it doesn't seem much to go on, and he might not like this surface, but Danny Pish is a steady trainer, and he might have this one ready to go. The key is, does the #11 get the 8/1 or better? if so go there, if not take a small shot on Pharme Legend.
Tomorrow, I'll be blogging over a www.horseplayersassociation.org, and will do a weekly recap in the afternoon.
Today, we will run down to the Fair Grounds and play the 9th Race. It's a $5000 claimer for 4YO and upwards going a mile and sixteenth. The conditions of this race allow for some real salty entries. I admit, I don't handicap low level claimers because the form cycle is so hard to spot. However, if you can figure it out these type of races bring the best value. In this one, there are two of interest, and like always the tote will dictate the action.
From a pure angle play, the #11 Random Move ML 9/2 fits the bill. This 5YO gelding is shipping in from Delta Downs, were he had three tough races, the last won he held on to third. He get's the hot jockey in Rosie Napravnik and his trainer, Jonas Gibson has done well at the Fair Grounds with his limited barn. I know Smashin Thru has handled twice in those three races, and his speed sits in the mid 50 low 60's, but looking at the past, he seems to find something extra here at the FG. If he goes to 8/1 or higher he would be an intriguing play.
Next one is the #8 Pharme Legend ML 10/1. Out of the gate the price is there and suspect it will go higher by post time. What makes him attractive is we have a lightly race 4YO, who has done well for himself. Won 3 of 13 and in the money 7 times. That record is from Texas at Retama, and his first two spins at the Fair Grounds have been lackluster. So why today? I like the jockey switch to Shane Sellers, his last work out here at FG was a bullet, he raced better at the first two calls last out. I know it doesn't seem much to go on, and he might not like this surface, but Danny Pish is a steady trainer, and he might have this one ready to go. The key is, does the #11 get the 8/1 or better? if so go there, if not take a small shot on Pharme Legend.
Tomorrow, I'll be blogging over a www.horseplayersassociation.org, and will do a weekly recap in the afternoon.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th @Aqueduct 3/15/12
We got the price on Precision Farming at Gulfstream yesterday, 15/1, sadly we didn't get the result. I'm not sure how I would have played it, she had shown issues in the past, and felt lukewarm all the way around, maybe one unit to win and let it go at that. Today is Thursday, so it must be Aqueduct! It feels like every Thursday the DRF tosses us a race from there and today is no exception.
It's the 7th race, a Optional Claimer for $75,000 non winners of one etc. I will refrain writing out the conditions today. It's for 3YO going 6F on the inner track. A nice field of 8 lightly raced 3YO's have entered and this group is tough. There are several I like in here, especially the #3 and #4, either one show they can handle this one, and if we could a decent value I would take #3 Copy My Swagger ML 3/1 in a flash, but I don't think it will be there. So where do we go to get some value in this bunch.
If the tote plays out right and the money falls on the #3 and #4, and we can assume money will land on #8 Behemoth ML 5/1, Pletcher's horse, we might get some play on the #6 Sportswriter ML 5/2. This is a straight angle play. He won two back at this distance on the inner track, cutting back today, improving Beyer's, Rudy Rodriquez is having a great meet, and he puts Dominquez on board (who is red hot). There is no doubt he will need a strong effort today, for he mainly has faced state breds, but there are times you have to go with the flow. There is an old saying, the trend is your friend and when you find a hot trainer/jockey combo, you foresake form and go with it. Let's see how the tote treats us, but he will be a good play if he can bust over 5/1.
It's the 7th race, a Optional Claimer for $75,000 non winners of one etc. I will refrain writing out the conditions today. It's for 3YO going 6F on the inner track. A nice field of 8 lightly raced 3YO's have entered and this group is tough. There are several I like in here, especially the #3 and #4, either one show they can handle this one, and if we could a decent value I would take #3 Copy My Swagger ML 3/1 in a flash, but I don't think it will be there. So where do we go to get some value in this bunch.
If the tote plays out right and the money falls on the #3 and #4, and we can assume money will land on #8 Behemoth ML 5/1, Pletcher's horse, we might get some play on the #6 Sportswriter ML 5/2. This is a straight angle play. He won two back at this distance on the inner track, cutting back today, improving Beyer's, Rudy Rodriquez is having a great meet, and he puts Dominquez on board (who is red hot). There is no doubt he will need a strong effort today, for he mainly has faced state breds, but there are times you have to go with the flow. There is an old saying, the trend is your friend and when you find a hot trainer/jockey combo, you foresake form and go with it. Let's see how the tote treats us, but he will be a good play if he can bust over 5/1.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Price Play: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 3/14/12
Last night in the 8th race at Charles Town we hit the board with Omara Devil coming in second at 15/1. As expected, Silver Heart won the race, but was surprising is Bahia Beach going off as the favorite. With Omara Devil with a morning line of 5/1 and getting a nice overlay at 15/1, I would have stacked my wagers. One unit win, two to place and three to show. That would mean at $2 per unit a $12 investment and returned $25.80.
Today, we go to Gulfstream Park for the 6th race, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. It's an Optional claiming event for 4YO+, fillies and mares that have never won $7500 twice other than maiden, claiming starter of state bred or which have never won 3 races or claiming price $62,500. So those broad conditions bring us a field of 10, and several good horses.
It's easy to see the #5, 6, and 7 are the top ones and you could toss in the #1 and #10 as outsiders. So I went to find a price play in this event and found the #8 Precision Farming ML 12/1 to be intriguing. She made her 6YO debut here last month at this level and was closing down on some these in that event. The place horse two back went on to win at this level with a Beyer in the mid 80's, and Linda Rice is bringing her back promptly. No doubt there has been issues of some kind in the past, seeing she has raced only 15 times in 4 years, but she has won 5, and has shown speed to beat these ladies. I do like Linda Rice horses, and Lezcano is back on board. He is having a good meet, and that might signal she is ready to go today. Also, she is getting an extra 1/2 furlong today, and she has won at this distance and at 6F, this small stretch out might be just the tonic.
We need 12/1 or higher, and not sure how to wager as I would have to see the odds at post time. Good luck and will see you all tomorrow.
Today, we go to Gulfstream Park for the 6th race, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. It's an Optional claiming event for 4YO+, fillies and mares that have never won $7500 twice other than maiden, claiming starter of state bred or which have never won 3 races or claiming price $62,500. So those broad conditions bring us a field of 10, and several good horses.
It's easy to see the #5, 6, and 7 are the top ones and you could toss in the #1 and #10 as outsiders. So I went to find a price play in this event and found the #8 Precision Farming ML 12/1 to be intriguing. She made her 6YO debut here last month at this level and was closing down on some these in that event. The place horse two back went on to win at this level with a Beyer in the mid 80's, and Linda Rice is bringing her back promptly. No doubt there has been issues of some kind in the past, seeing she has raced only 15 times in 4 years, but she has won 5, and has shown speed to beat these ladies. I do like Linda Rice horses, and Lezcano is back on board. He is having a good meet, and that might signal she is ready to go today. Also, she is getting an extra 1/2 furlong today, and she has won at this distance and at 6F, this small stretch out might be just the tonic.
We need 12/1 or higher, and not sure how to wager as I would have to see the odds at post time. Good luck and will see you all tomorrow.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th Race Charles Town for 03/13/12
The race yesterday at Turf Paradise turned out to be a bust. Not only didn't we get the odds on Hay Gear but he also ran up the track on us. He had a morning line of 5/1 and expected him to go off at 8/1 or higher. In the end he was bet down to 3/1 taking all the value out of the play of the day. Picking winners is hard enough, but if we are going to go down, at least let's get our price.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Play of the Day: 1st Race @ Turf Paradise
Yesterday, I dropped in a price play in the 1st Race at Gulstream, Wildcat Sierra. The morning line was 12/1 and she went off at 10/1, since she went off less than the morning line, there would have been no play. The key to the price play is that the odds have to be at or higher than the morning line, or the horse becomes an over bet.
Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise, it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs. It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult. The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach. Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers. The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group? I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.
Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise, it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs. It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult. The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach. Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers. The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group? I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Price Play For Sunday, 1st Race @Gulfstream
Normally I don't blog on Sundays, for I'm either in a tournament or playing for my own account. However, I spotted an interesting price play at Gulfstream Park today in the 1st race. It's a maiden claiming ($12,500) going 51/2 furlongs. The price play is ...
#5 Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1
She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance. I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.
I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off. Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.
Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters. Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.
Good luck!!
#5 Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1
She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance. I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.
I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off. Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.
Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters. Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.
Good luck!!
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/10/12
Abella finished third at Santa Anita yesterday, she gave a good showing , and will be interested to see where she shows up next. We had a winner on Thursday, Self Control taking the 9th at Gulfstream and cashing a $6.00 winning ticket. So out of five races, $10 invested, won $6. leaving us down $4 for the week. The week before we were up $8, that leaves us a working profit of $4.
Today is the Tampa Bay Derby, for a price play I'm going with the #1 Prospective with a ML 8/1. I had picked Take Charge Indy as the favorite, but he scratched out, so that leaves Battle Hardened to be the odds on choice. The write up is at www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 8
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 2
Today is the Tampa Bay Derby, for a price play I'm going with the #1 Prospective with a ML 8/1. I had picked Take Charge Indy as the favorite, but he scratched out, so that leaves Battle Hardened to be the odds on choice. The write up is at www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 8
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 2
Friday, March 9, 2012
Trips and Traps for Aqueduct 03/08/12
If you haven't seen the March 8th edition of Trips and Traps with Andy Serling and Eric Donovan here it is:
Play of the Day: 7th @Santa Anita for March 9th
Self Control took the 9th at Gulfstream yesterday and I wasn't surprised. He did look like the solid choice in that race, but what did surprise me was that he got a fairly square price of 2/1 (ML 5/2). The fact that my upset choice, E. H. Indy was bet down from 5/1 to around 5/2, I would have taken Self Control in this situation. Self Control paid a nice $6.00 ticket, who wouldn't take a 33% return on their money?
Today we head to the West Coast and will play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's an Optional Claimer for $25,000, for 4YO+ fillies and mares that have never won $10,000 other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races or optional claiming price of $25,000. That was a mouth full, but it's these type of races that bring in live horses, and surprises happen. I almost forgot it is on the grass (downhill start at Santa Anita) going 6 1/2 panels.
When you look at the 10 entrants, there are several here that look sharp. This is one of those races were you can almost over handicap it, so in the end I come up with three I like: #4 Abella ML 6/1, #5 Suances Flower ML 4/1 and #6 Bodie Girl Ml 6/1.
It's one of those situations, like yesterday were you let the action dictate where you go, for the price and will assume she will be overlooked, I like #4 Abella at maybe 3/1 or higher, if she goes below 3/1 then I have to run with #5 Suances Flower (again if the price is right).
What appeals to me with Abella is she is coming back off a win on this course at this distance. Yes, it was her maiden,but she did show a nice Beyer jump, and showed she likes the grass. Blincoe runs a small barn, and his stats are solid, so you have consider his h a 29% win record with WonLastStart for a whopping $4.57 ROI. It looks like this lightly raced 4YO has more upside to go. I also like her running style and that Pedroza is on board again.
Tomorrow I'll be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org blog, not sure what race yet but more than likely the Tampa Bay Derby. Have a great weekend and see you all on Monday.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1
Today we head to the West Coast and will play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's an Optional Claimer for $25,000, for 4YO+ fillies and mares that have never won $10,000 other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races or optional claiming price of $25,000. That was a mouth full, but it's these type of races that bring in live horses, and surprises happen. I almost forgot it is on the grass (downhill start at Santa Anita) going 6 1/2 panels.
When you look at the 10 entrants, there are several here that look sharp. This is one of those races were you can almost over handicap it, so in the end I come up with three I like: #4 Abella ML 6/1, #5 Suances Flower ML 4/1 and #6 Bodie Girl Ml 6/1.
It's one of those situations, like yesterday were you let the action dictate where you go, for the price and will assume she will be overlooked, I like #4 Abella at maybe 3/1 or higher, if she goes below 3/1 then I have to run with #5 Suances Flower (again if the price is right).
What appeals to me with Abella is she is coming back off a win on this course at this distance. Yes, it was her maiden,but she did show a nice Beyer jump, and showed she likes the grass. Blincoe runs a small barn, and his stats are solid, so you have consider his h a 29% win record with WonLastStart for a whopping $4.57 ROI. It looks like this lightly raced 4YO has more upside to go. I also like her running style and that Pedroza is on board again.
Tomorrow I'll be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org blog, not sure what race yet but more than likely the Tampa Bay Derby. Have a great weekend and see you all on Monday.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park
So yesterday at Aqueduct our primary horse, Street Life, scratched leaving us A Boy Named Em. We got the price we wanted, sadly we didn't get the result we wanted. I read the racing line, and he got squeezed again at the start, this is twice in a row. After that it looked like he dropped down on the rail and took a tour of the track. It's possible Kennealy told the jockey to take it easy if the break wasn't right, I'd keep an out for him next time out.
Today, the DRF gives us an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. It will be the 9th race, going a mile and an eighth over the main track. It is for 4YO and upward which have never won $7500 other than maiden claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $62,750, so it brings in some fine horses and many here int this field of 10 have a legitimate shot at winning today.
The favorite and likely winner will be the #7 Self Control ML 5/2. I wouldn't call him a lock for this one, but he does look solid here. With that said, I could end the write up right here, but that would be too easy, so in looking for the upset horse at a price the one I keep coming back to is the #9 E. H. Indy ML 5/1. This will this 4YO third trip around GP, the last two were Place finishes, and barely missing in both. Even though his last two Beyer figures have shown an improvement, his past has shown him to be a bouncer. The question to ask has he grown out of that pattern or do we see him resume it today? I'm going with that he continues to improve. The other issue is that he is a closer, but he does stretch out and that could play into his racing style. Pena has shown he does well with horses that have been freshened, along with some good results in allowance races.
I know this reads like I'm a tepid on him and maybe so, it is a tough group today, and if I had to look elsewhere I find the #5 Unbridled Kimanchi ML 8/1 interesting. So in the end, I will go with the #5, maybe do a $2 win/place wager just to cover him not getting there in time. I have had these kind break my heart so many times at the wire, so why not hedge.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Today, the DRF gives us an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. It will be the 9th race, going a mile and an eighth over the main track. It is for 4YO and upward which have never won $7500 other than maiden claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $62,750, so it brings in some fine horses and many here int this field of 10 have a legitimate shot at winning today.
The favorite and likely winner will be the #7 Self Control ML 5/2. I wouldn't call him a lock for this one, but he does look solid here. With that said, I could end the write up right here, but that would be too easy, so in looking for the upset horse at a price the one I keep coming back to is the #9 E. H. Indy ML 5/1. This will this 4YO third trip around GP, the last two were Place finishes, and barely missing in both. Even though his last two Beyer figures have shown an improvement, his past has shown him to be a bouncer. The question to ask has he grown out of that pattern or do we see him resume it today? I'm going with that he continues to improve. The other issue is that he is a closer, but he does stretch out and that could play into his racing style. Pena has shown he does well with horses that have been freshened, along with some good results in allowance races.
I know this reads like I'm a tepid on him and maybe so, it is a tough group today, and if I had to look elsewhere I find the #5 Unbridled Kimanchi ML 8/1 interesting. So in the end, I will go with the #5, maybe do a $2 win/place wager just to cover him not getting there in time. I have had these kind break my heart so many times at the wire, so why not hedge.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park
So yesterday at Aqueduct our primary horse, Street Life, scratched leaving us A Boy Named Em. We got the price we wanted, sadly he didn't get the result. I read the racing line, and he got squeezed again at the start, this is twice in a row. After that it looked like he dropped down on the rail and took a tour of the track. It's possible Kennealy told the jockey to take it easy of the break wasn't right, I would keep an out for him next time out.
Today, the DRF gives us an allowance race today at Gulfstream Park. It will be the 9th race, going an mile and an eighth over the main track. It is for 4YO and upward which have never won $700 other than maiden claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $62,750, so it brings in some fine horses and many here int this field of 10 have a legitimate shot at winning today.
The favorite and likely winner will be the #7 Self Control ML 5/2. I wouldn't call him a lock for this one, but he does look solid here. With that said, I could end the write up right here, but that would be too easy, so in looking for the upset horse at a price the one I keep coming back to is the #9 E. H. Indy ML 5/1. This will this 4YO third trip around GP, the last two were Place finishes, and barely missing in both. Even though his last two Beyer figures have shown an improve, his past has shown him to be a bouncer. The question to ask has he grown out of that pattern or do we see him resume it today? I'm going with that he continues to improve, the other issue is that he is a closer, but he does stretch out and that could play into his racing style. Pena has shown he does well with horses that have been freshened, along with some good results in allowance races.
I know this reads like I'm a tepid on him and maybe so, it is a tough group today, and if I had to look elsewhere I find the #5 Unbridled Kimanchi ML 8/1 interesting. So in the end, I will go with the #5, maybe do a $2 win/place wager just to cover him not getting there in time. I have had these kind break my heart so many times at the wire.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Today, the DRF gives us an allowance race today at Gulfstream Park. It will be the 9th race, going an mile and an eighth over the main track. It is for 4YO and upward which have never won $700 other than maiden claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $62,750, so it brings in some fine horses and many here int this field of 10 have a legitimate shot at winning today.
The favorite and likely winner will be the #7 Self Control ML 5/2. I wouldn't call him a lock for this one, but he does look solid here. With that said, I could end the write up right here, but that would be too easy, so in looking for the upset horse at a price the one I keep coming back to is the #9 E. H. Indy ML 5/1. This will this 4YO third trip around GP, the last two were Place finishes, and barely missing in both. Even though his last two Beyer figures have shown an improve, his past has shown him to be a bouncer. The question to ask has he grown out of that pattern or do we see him resume it today? I'm going with that he continues to improve, the other issue is that he is a closer, but he does stretch out and that could play into his racing style. Pena has shown he does well with horses that have been freshened, along with some good results in allowance races.
I know this reads like I'm a tepid on him and maybe so, it is a tough group today, and if I had to look elsewhere I find the #5 Unbridled Kimanchi ML 8/1 interesting. So in the end, I will go with the #5, maybe do a $2 win/place wager just to cover him not getting there in time. I have had these kind break my heart so many times at the wire.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Trips and Traps for Aqueduct 2/24/12
I wanted to share this feature from Andy Serling and Eric Donovan in New York. If you like to play the New York race scene then you need to catch his show called, Trips and Traps. It's on You Tube and I will make an effort to upload them as they become available. This one is dated, February 24th, enjoy the show:
Play of the Day: 7th @Aqueduct
Our selection at Will Rogers Downs went off at too low of a price to even consider playing him. Looking at the results, you could have put $2 to win/place on all of them and had a huge score. Today, we go back to Aqueduct, to play the 7th race, it is an Optional Claiming event for $75K/N1X going a mile and 70 yards over the inner track, for 3YO's. It's a good field, and another wide open affair. I like two entries and price will dictate the direction I go.
#4 Street Life ML 6/1
He shipped in from GP and won at first asking here at Aqueduct going this distance. Big improvement to his Beyer's (70), and looks ready to move through his conditions. In his last outing, it wasn't an easy trip, Alvarado had to guide him through traffic and he galloped away. The other big plus is Chad Brown, he is having a solid meet so far, and his record with returning winners is superior, 29%! If we can get a square price (meaning better than 4/1), he is the play.
If the #4 is not playable, the I would go with #6 A Boy Named Em ML 8/1. He is shipping in after a couple tepid efforts at GP. It looks like this angle of shipping in from GP is working at Aqueduct. You'll notice there are a couple other entrants that have shipped an won here. There are several angles to play with him: first blinkers on (equipment change), jockey switch to Castro, consistent speed and should see an improvement on the inner track. His last outing outing was a troubled trip by being squeezed at the start. Lastly, Kenneally is having a good meet too, especially with horses coming off a layoff (25% win rate).
I like both of these, and will let the tote board dictate the play.
Record:
Races: 6
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
#4 Street Life ML 6/1
He shipped in from GP and won at first asking here at Aqueduct going this distance. Big improvement to his Beyer's (70), and looks ready to move through his conditions. In his last outing, it wasn't an easy trip, Alvarado had to guide him through traffic and he galloped away. The other big plus is Chad Brown, he is having a solid meet so far, and his record with returning winners is superior, 29%! If we can get a square price (meaning better than 4/1), he is the play.
If the #4 is not playable, the I would go with #6 A Boy Named Em ML 8/1. He is shipping in after a couple tepid efforts at GP. It looks like this angle of shipping in from GP is working at Aqueduct. You'll notice there are a couple other entrants that have shipped an won here. There are several angles to play with him: first blinkers on (equipment change), jockey switch to Castro, consistent speed and should see an improvement on the inner track. His last outing outing was a troubled trip by being squeezed at the start. Lastly, Kenneally is having a good meet too, especially with horses coming off a layoff (25% win rate).
I like both of these, and will let the tote board dictate the play.
Record:
Races: 6
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Pick of the Day: 9th Race Will Rogers Downs, MdnSpcWgt
Well a long shot won yesterday in the 8th race at Turf Paradise, unfortunately it wasn't our selection. Bell Biltz broke out nicely and then faded away, so much for the change of venue. Today, we head to Oklahoma to try our hand with a group of maidens going 5 1/2 furlongs for $21,600. I've never handicapped Will Rogers Downs, and this group of 12 has little experience, except two. I will avoid the first time starters here and go with the #5 Konawa Slew ML 5/1.
He has had two nice races, the last one brought out a 62 Beyer, which is above par for this group. I also like how he improved his position at each call from his first outing, he stayed close and then fell off at the end. Both the winner and place horses have gone on to win again, so you have the key horse angle here. The trainer, Offolter, has a solid record, especially with maidens and layoffs. No jockey or weight changes to concern ourselves with. The big issue will the crowd jump on board? If the odds drop below 3/1 then we layoff the play. It's a crowded field so the money could get spread around.
Record:
Selections: 5
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
He has had two nice races, the last one brought out a 62 Beyer, which is above par for this group. I also like how he improved his position at each call from his first outing, he stayed close and then fell off at the end. Both the winner and place horses have gone on to win again, so you have the key horse angle here. The trainer, Offolter, has a solid record, especially with maidens and layoffs. No jockey or weight changes to concern ourselves with. The big issue will the crowd jump on board? If the odds drop below 3/1 then we layoff the play. It's a crowded field so the money could get spread around.
Record:
Selections: 5
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
Monday, March 5, 2012
Price Play @Turf Paradise for 3/5/12
Today we take a look at the 8th race at Turf Paradise, it's an Allowance race for $13,000NW2L going seven and a half furlongs over turf. There is a field of 10 entered and it's a real mixed bag as you would expect. The one I like in this race is the #6 Bell Blitz with a morning line of 10/1.
The logic on this one is he is shipping in from Santa Anita, had been racing in what I presume to be a higher class, recent claim and a jockey switch. He perked up two back with a third running a solid 70. Today, he cuts back in distance, and there isn't a ton of speed in this crowd. I'm angling a change of surface, distance, jockey might be the perfect tonic for this 4YO.
We finished last week with a $16 winner on Friday!
Record
Starts 4
Wins 1
Place 0
Show 1
The logic on this one is he is shipping in from Santa Anita, had been racing in what I presume to be a higher class, recent claim and a jockey switch. He perked up two back with a third running a solid 70. Today, he cuts back in distance, and there isn't a ton of speed in this crowd. I'm angling a change of surface, distance, jockey might be the perfect tonic for this 4YO.
We finished last week with a $16 winner on Friday!
Record
Starts 4
Wins 1
Place 0
Show 1
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Santa Anita Handicap Spot Play for today
I'm a big fan of Mark Cramer (also James Quinn), and I just realized that shows my age doesn't it? Anyway, Cramer has an angle for surprise winners. You find a horse with three straight loses that is switching tracks along with a jockey change. Additionally, the horse should be beaten by more than 2 lengths in those three races, dropping (or rising) in class and odds greater than 4/1. Cramer showed a 13% win ratio with a huge ROI.
The #8 Gladding fits most of the criteria. It did finish less than 2 lengths back in one of those three races and is moving up in class not down. So consider him a borderline case, but at a morning line of 12/1, it's worth the shot. You got Gladding coming in from Churchill, Rosario is now riding, and he has won at Santa Anita before. So for fun, will put a dime on him.
Side note: I saw El Padrino clipped a 101 in the Risen Star, making two in a row of over 100 Beyer, he looks strong to me. The one I do like is Mark Valeski, who was neck and neck with El Padrino, so he had to have had a Beyer at 100, a huge jump for him. It's early for the Derby hopefuls, but Mark Valeski is quietly rising into contention.
The #8 Gladding fits most of the criteria. It did finish less than 2 lengths back in one of those three races and is moving up in class not down. So consider him a borderline case, but at a morning line of 12/1, it's worth the shot. You got Gladding coming in from Churchill, Rosario is now riding, and he has won at Santa Anita before. So for fun, will put a dime on him.
Side note: I saw El Padrino clipped a 101 in the Risen Star, making two in a row of over 100 Beyer, he looks strong to me. The one I do like is Mark Valeski, who was neck and neck with El Padrino, so he had to have had a Beyer at 100, a huge jump for him. It's early for the Derby hopefuls, but Mark Valeski is quietly rising into contention.
Weekly Recap for the Clocker
We finished the week with a nice win at Santa Anita. Darling Dodie a first time starter went off at 7/1 and paid $16.00 for her efforts. I didn't get to see the race, but did read the recap and it looked like Corey Nakatani set her up perfectly. Interesting note on that maiden race, all three finishers were first time starters! We handicapped four races for the week, playing $2 to win on each race, we invested $8.00 and returned $16.00, not a bad start for the week.
Today we have three big races at Aqueduct, and I like the favorites in each of them: Hansen, It's Tricky and Caleb Posse. I'll be handicapping the Battaglia Memorial over at Turfway Park for 3YO. that analysis will be at horseplayersassociation.org under Weekend Handicapping.
One last note, I want to leave you all with a quote from Mark Cramer,
In Search of the Steady Horse
In search of this ideal, we must reckon with certain realities of horse racing:
1. No horse wins all races.
2. Dependable horses that win most races yield an unplayably low average mutual.
3. The closet thing to a truly "consistent" horse is one that loses all its races.
Have a great weekend, and see you on Monday.
Today we have three big races at Aqueduct, and I like the favorites in each of them: Hansen, It's Tricky and Caleb Posse. I'll be handicapping the Battaglia Memorial over at Turfway Park for 3YO. that analysis will be at horseplayersassociation.org under Weekend Handicapping.
One last note, I want to leave you all with a quote from Mark Cramer,
In Search of the Steady Horse
In search of this ideal, we must reckon with certain realities of horse racing:
1. No horse wins all races.
2. Dependable horses that win most races yield an unplayably low average mutual.
3. The closet thing to a truly "consistent" horse is one that loses all its races.
Have a great weekend, and see you on Monday.
Friday, March 2, 2012
5th Race @Santa Anita for March 2nd
Deputy Darling was a disappointment yesterday at Gulfstream finishing 7th. I didn't get to see the race but did read the recap, well not much in her case. It read like she went on a tour of the course, strange for a Micheal Maker horse. The only consolation was Mr. Illman at the DRF liked her chances too, so it's good to know I didn't misread it entirely. Today the DRF is tossing us another maiden special weight, but this time it's at Santa Anita. It will be the 5th race on turf, a sprint of six and a half furlongs for 3YO fillies. As a reminder, the Santa Anita turf course starts on a downhill run, it can be tricky.
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
Thursday, March 1, 2012
7th Race @Gulfstream Park onTurf
Yesterday at Aqueduct we got served up the triple whammy. First the track was muddy, Matt Carothers at TVG selected Notell, and the kiss of death on Elusive Rumour is when Simon Bray selected her. I like Simon and his thoughts, especially on breeding, but when he handicaps, I usually go the other way. Likewise, I do like Matt Carothers selections, and usually feel comfortable when he and I agree. I will say I was pleased with Elusive Rumour's effort. She went forward, settled and hung tough for a show finish. I would watch for her next time out, she is ready to break her maiden.
So today we go south to Gulfstream for the 7th race on turf going a mile and sixteenth. It's a $40,000 claiming event for 4YO+ fillies and mares. A field of 11 have entered and it's a competitive group. The #10 Brampton looks like the favorite and did have a good run last out, but for the price play I will go with ...
#9 Deputy Darling ML 5/1
She had won three in a row before she lost in an allowance race here at GP. She shows consistent speed over the grass, and even bumps into the low to mid 80's. I like the connections of Maker and Leparoux, and she has won at this level here and at Churchill. She has had four workouts since her last effort, nothing special but it shows she is fit and ready. Lastly, she has hit the board at GP three of five times, including two wins. My only issue is she is a closer, but I do like how Leparoux has ridden her. Anything close to 5/1 she is a play.
Record:
Starts: 2
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
So today we go south to Gulfstream for the 7th race on turf going a mile and sixteenth. It's a $40,000 claiming event for 4YO+ fillies and mares. A field of 11 have entered and it's a competitive group. The #10 Brampton looks like the favorite and did have a good run last out, but for the price play I will go with ...
#9 Deputy Darling ML 5/1
She had won three in a row before she lost in an allowance race here at GP. She shows consistent speed over the grass, and even bumps into the low to mid 80's. I like the connections of Maker and Leparoux, and she has won at this level here and at Churchill. She has had four workouts since her last effort, nothing special but it shows she is fit and ready. Lastly, she has hit the board at GP three of five times, including two wins. My only issue is she is a closer, but I do like how Leparoux has ridden her. Anything close to 5/1 she is a play.
Record:
Starts: 2
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
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