Play of the Day: 6th Parx Racing 5/7/2012

Today in the 6th at Parx Racing we get a great Maiden Special Weight ($45,000) angle.  The race is over the dirt for 3YO's and the field of ten is going seven furlongs.  The action will go to Alan Goldberg's #3 Mezzano ML 5/2.  He actually should be 3/2 or better based on his first effort over the Parx course finishing 2nd and posting a 71 Beyer.  It looked like the only thing preventing him from winning off the pace was room, I'm sure with Elliott taking over you'll see a different race.  If we got 5/2 on him I would consider playing him as the favorite.

Thinking 5/2 won't hold on Mezzano, I'm looking at the #3 Wise Guy Charlie ML 5/1 as the play of the day.  The angle is solid for today's race.  Shipping in from Gulfstream Park after two efforts and heavily bet on.  He gets a new trainer in the always dangerous, Chad Brown, were he wins 32% with first timers under his tutelage. He cuts him back in distance from his last race, a mile to seven furlongs, and jockey switch to Carmouche, who is winning 25% of his mounts. He likes to get out on the lead, and see no one else really challenging him out there. Toss in four solid workouts, one being a bullet, and he looks ready to graduate today.  I have him as my second pick behind Mezzano at 7/2.  So anything above that and he is a solid for the action.

Derby Special: Gemologist

Early last week I had some business issues that needed attending to and I decided to take the week off from handicapping as a result. Today over at horseplayersassociation.org I blogged the analysis of the Derby today. I thought I would post it here today as well.

The first Saturday in May has arrived and I had promised myself that I wasn’t going to handicap the Kentucky Derby.  In fact, I took the entire week off from blogging at my site to avoid it, and when all said and done, I can’t resist the temptation to pick the winner.  Before I begin, I will say that most of the entrants have the ability to win this race, and as we know, when you have fields this big (20) anything can and will happen.  So let’s dive in ….

Contenders:

#15 Gemologist ML 6/1

He is five for five and seems to get better in every race.  Pletcher’s 3YO has won twice here at Churchill and has no problem with the distance.  His running style fits this bunch, he can lay off the pace or take it to the wire if he wants.  Workouts have been solid and it’s hard to find anything to go against him.  You could say the post position is a bit troubling, but he came off the ninth hole to win the Kentucky Juvenile.  

#14 Hansen ML 10/1

When he won the BC Juvenile here in November he beat eight other entrants today. Distance and speed are not in question.   He does like to get out front and with the other speed in this one, it might work against him.   But then again, Dominguez is no fool and pressed in the Gotham and won it, so it will be interesting to see how he breaks and how up close he gets.  Michael Maker has him primed and ready.

#4 Union Rags ML 9/2

After winning three in a row he has shown to be a touch uneven over the last three.  What I do like is whenever there has been a break in his racing he wins coming back.  His tactical running style fits perfectly for this race and I see no issue with his speed or going this distance.  The only concern might be if he stays back on the break he could get jammed up with the pack coming in from the outside.  Leparoux is red hot right now and have to believe he has a plan for him.

Dark Horse:

#11 Alpha ML 15/1

Since the BC Juvenile he has really found a nice groove and looks poised to go all out today.  The angle here is that he is improving, McLaughlin has a real strong record with second off a layoff and we get a jockey switch to Maragh.  Now the problem will be can Maragh keep him steady in the gate while waiting for the others to load?  If he can, I look for him to get into a nice mid pack position and pounce on the pace entering the stretch. 

#5 Dullahan ML 8/1

Everybody says he is a turf horse, which is interesting since he has never won a turf race.  Yes, his wins are over synthetic and for me that has no bearing on today. His two races as a 3YO have been at a mile and an eighth.   He has raced in big fields before and will be set up for a great closing rush.  He is a mystery horse and would call him dangerous in this situation.

Bombs Away:

#2 Optimizer ML 50/1

I liked him the day he won his first outing at Saratoga.  Since then he is zero for 8 and has shown flashes of his potential.  Today there is no pressure, for no one expects anything of him, and that is what makes him so dangerous.   His breeding says he can nail this distance and with this big field and being a closer, it could set up perfectly for him.  If the pace gets heated and the stalkers falter, he could blow by all of them.  When fields get tangled up at the top of the stretch it’s the one that swings wide off the pace that can get it done.  If he is there at the turn, then it’s his for the asking.  

No Play of the Day: Monday and Tuesday

Due to some business obligations I will not be blogging today or tomorrow. Will return on Wednesday.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/29/12

Last night at Charles Town, Raven Terms got the price but sadly we didn't get the result. Our second choice, #4 Ok Listen Up got the job done and paid a nice $9.60 return.  I will admit he was an underlay at the final odds, so would have passed on him.  If you took him, congratulations!  So we had an interesting week, one winner, Phil Dancer on Tuesday for a good payoff and a third at Calder with Goldsome at 48 to 1.

Monday:  Checkandbalances at Beulah OUT (-$12)
Tuesday:  Phil Dancer winner at Parx, net profit of $73.20
Wednesday:  Lefty's Legacy finished third at Hawthorne, no play.
Thursday: Woodford Belle, second at Keeneland  OUT (-$12)
Friday:  Goldsome third and paid a net profit of  $19.80
Saturday:  Ravens Terms at Charles Town OUT (-$12)

We started the week with a profit of $94.80.  The final tally this week was $93.00 net profit, subtracting the three outs of $36 we end up with a new net profit of $57.  That gives us a total net profit of  $151.00.

Saturday Night Special: Charles Town 8th Race 4/28/2012

On Friday at Calder our selection Goldsome went off at 48/1 and gave us a show finish.  Due to him going off over 10/1 the bet would have been stacked at $2 win/$4 place/$6 show.  His show finish gave us a $10.60 payout for a $31.80 return (net profit $19.80).  Tonight we go to Charles Town for the 8th race, an Allowance race for 3YO's that are non winners of three.  They will racing for $27,000 going seven furlongs over the dirt and two turns.

It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms.  His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite.  He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level.  He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat.  He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters.  There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1.  He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer.  The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it.  You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast.  The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.

Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him.  If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4.  Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level.  He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds.  A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.

Play of the Day: 5th Race at Calder 4/27/2012

In the Bewitch yesterday our selection, Woodford Belle gave us a good race finishing second to Upperline. We  also got the overlay on her but since she was less than 10/1 it would have been a $12 win bet so we lose.  Today, I let my computer pick the race since I couldn't find anything that wow'ed me and the penalty for that is we get a maiden claiming race! It's the 5th race at Calder Race Course for 3YO maidens going a mile and a sixteenth on grass, claiming price is $25,000. What's interesting about this field of ten, with the exception of two, they are lightly raced.

There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1.  He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start.  His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it.  He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed.  Adding Jara only helps the cause.

The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park.  He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more.  Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today.  Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board.  In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F.  The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.

The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1.  This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race.  First off we get a stretch out and surface change.  Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers.  In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today.  Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will.  He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.

Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!

Play of the Day: 8th Race at Keeneland, The Bewitch (G3) 4/26/2012

We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne.  The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play.  Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it.  I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.

So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off.  There are no listed scratches at this time.

The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace.  We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass.  When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1.  She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events.  Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3).  She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now.  I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price.  Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.

Play of the Day: 6th Race at Hawthorne 4/25/2012

At Parx yesterday our selection, Phil Dancer got the odds we wanted and more importantly we got the result too!  He ran an excellent trip and scored a $14.20 winning ticket. With a $12 win bet that would have been a $85.20 return for a net profit of $73.20.  Today we head back to Chicago to Hawthorne for the 6th race. It's an Allowance event ($35,000N1X) for state bred fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards going a mile on grass.

This is one of those fields you could call lesser of evils, for no one here looks like a clear winner.  I'm leaning  towards #2 Little Frances ML 5/2 (should be more like 3/1).  I normally don't like first time starters on grass but its hard to ignore her winning longer here at Hawthorne back in November. This also will be her second start as a 4YO and under Michael Reavis, who is an outstanding trainer here in the Midwest.  She has held her own in this level on dirt, her running style works well here and Thornton is on board again. You can also add in the "blinkers off" and you have an interesting opportunity. The issue will be the odds, she will get bet down with the #5 Prima Donna Pirate ML 2/1 and that will take care of that.

For this race, I'll go outside. #4 Lefty's Legacy ML 10/1 (that's a fair price) will be my pick. Taking a maiden winner is always risky but she broke her maiden at this distance on grass at Hawthorne a week back.  Frank Kirby spins her right back in her first non winners of one and she showed big improvement in her speed fig's. Kirby is one  of the better trainers and to wheel her right back shows she has more in the tank. She is the lone speed here and could find herself going wire to wire against this crowd.

Now if you want to go for a real dark horse and a big price, I'll take the #7 Live Today ML 20/1.  This 5YO has had a rough go the last two years racing in dirt sprints outside of Illinois. Going back to her 3YO career she won at this distance on grass at Arlington under Christine Janks, who she rejoins with again today.  This mare showed promise back then and sadly got lost in the claiming shuffle.  So there is a big angle here with a new trainer (who had done well with her in the past), jockey switch, surface/distance change and adding blinkers.  Janks has been working her steadily and could get up for a piece of the action.  I'll be rooting for her to find her way back, hoping the past two years didn't destroy her confidence or heart for racing.

Play of the Day: 9th at Parx, Philmont $75K 4/24/2012

The winning streak came to an end at Beulah yesterday, and when looking back at the PP's, there was no way did I see Jinete in that race.  Checksandbalances had a no excuse race, was well positioned and then faded out.  Today we get a stakes race at Parx. It's The Philmont (Purse $75,000) for 3YO going seven furlongs and it's a contentious field of seven.

It's hard to pass on the #1 King and Crusader ML 7/2, shipping in from Aqueduct.  I liked his chances in the Bayshore(G3) and he faltered after getting close.  Today he drops down into the $75K stakes level where he won three times.  The last one, the Winfield he posted a 86 Beyer.  He has shown versatility winning at various distances and tracks and Dutrow is a razor sharp trainer in these spots.  Luzzi stays on board for this one and wins 35% for Dutrow.  He will go out early with #3 Jake N Elwood ML 2/1 who won his maiden here at Parx last out, posting an improved Beyer of 80.  This is an aggressive move by his connections and they must see something to bypass the normal conditions this fast.  He had a bullet workout on the 17th, Frey stays in the irons and Petro is a tough trainer.

Next up is #3 Phil Dancer ML 5/1.  Had won two in a row here at Parx before getting waylaid in the Bayshore(G3) at Aqueduct finishing a distant sixth.  Reid brings him back home, breezed him a couple of days ago, takes the blinkers off and puts Pennington on board (25% win record with Reid).  He likes to stalk the pace and we do have some speed today so he might get the right trip. I'm going with Phil Dancer as my pick using the horse for course angle and Reid is over 20% wins on dirt sprints.

The last one in the mix is the #2 Cop a Tude ML 3/1. This 3YO is shipping in from Laurel where he won his first two races before stretching out in the Private Terms ($75K), finishing fifth.  He has had two good works since that race, the cut back in distance is always a good angle and he gets a new surface. You don't ignore Graham Motion horses and he keeps Russell in the irons.  His Beyer's have been steady and would expect them to improve today, he will press the pace which also puts him in a good position.

Like all contentious races it gets down to the odds. I suspect #1 and #4 will be bet heavily and letting either #2 or #3 to slip off.  While any four can win it, if Phil Dancer gets off at 7/1 or higher then he is my play, otherwise we will watch an interesting race.

Play of the day: 6th Race at Beulah 4/23/2012

The DRF tossed up a low level claiming race today.  I normally don't handicap them and thought it would be a neat challenge to take a crack at this one.  It's for 3YO and upwards going six furlongs on dirt.  The conditions are non winners of two since April 23, 2011, claiming price is $3500. One other condition that horses entered for races of $2500 or less, those races are excluded.   That's why you see a couple of runners today with two wins and one of them recently.

Seven have entered and I've got it down to four, I'm going to start with my pick.

#6 Checksandbalances ML 3/1

I have gone back and forth between this 6YO and the #1 High Intellect.  The reasons I'm leaning to him is that he has really been running well at Beulah since shipping from PA. He has won two for four at this distance, and the other two he was close in both on off tracks.  The angle today is that he gets a new trainer in Juan Aguirre, who is one of the top trainers at Beulah.  In fact, he wins 42% with first timers.  He won at the $4000 level back at Penn National and is trying this group after almost winning one in the mud.  His speed is comparable to the rest, likes to press close to the pace and can go wire to wire.  Aguirre keeps Hernandez in the irons, were they hit 38% of the time. 3/1 is a decent price but would like 7/2 or better.

#1 High Impact ML 5/2

Here is another one that found his level after shipping in from the West Coast.  Since Charlie Lawson took over this 7YO has won two straight at the $2500 with improving speed.  He has been on a short break and posted a bullet work, Lawson wins 21% of the time with layoffs.  He likes to stalk the pace, and with no speed this could be an issue, if he stays close he could get it done.

#4  Frantic Domer ML 2/1

He has won two of seven in 2012, his last being a $5000N4L. So that would give him the class edge but his form cycle seems to be short.  His last two efforts were at the $3500N2y and $35003y both ending in place  finishes.  His past Beyer's have never been above 52 and would need a big improvement to beat some of these salter competitors. He likes to press the front and with seven of nine on the board at Beulah you can't ignore him. Just not sure as the morning line favorite is worth the risk/reward.

#5 Atswhatisaid ML 6/1

Won at this level two back in the mud, then stepped up to non winners of three and finished fifth on a late rally. He is the closer in this crowd which makes him dangerous and Joe Poole does well in claiming races with a 21% win record. So dropping back down a level might suit him today. The concern I have is that he has only won once at six furlongs in ten attempts.  But then again with little speed in this race he could blow right by them if the pace doesn't grind him down. 6/1 is a fair morning line but would be more interested if we got 8/1 or better.

In the end, unless there is a real swing in the odds somewhere, I will take my chances on #6 Checksandbalances.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/22/2012

We finished off the week with our fourth win in a row with Sleeping Tiger winning at Penn National last night. Not real excited about the odds of 3/1 but with the scratches it would have been a fair price in the end.  So we had a week of two thirds for no return and four winners! Three of them paid a nice net profit, the other did as well but I got greedy and ended up making almost nothing, well sixty cents is really nothing.

Monday:  Raise the Bounty  finished third, no play
Tuesday:  Catch The Bean finished third, net loss $3.00
Wednesday:  Becca's Run, winner and net profit of $19.20
Thursday:  Datatthespa winner, bet on Firehouse Red and he finished fourth, net profit $.60
Friday:  Shakeria winner, net profit $37.20
Saturday:  Sleeping Tiger winner, net profit $40.80

The assumption is a $12 win bet. The exceptions are Dayatthespa where I played $6 to win and a $6 show bet on Firehouse Red, and Catch the Bean where I spread the $12 over win, place and show. Net profit means monies left after taking back our initial wager.  We started the week with a positive bank roll of $80.40 and this week netted $94.80 for a new balance of $175.20.

Saturday Night Special: 6th Race Penn National 4/21/12

At Aqueduct yesterday, Shakeira,  our choice hit the board with a win and paid $8.20.  This time I didn't get greedy and put the whole $12 on the nose and the return was $49.20!  So we have three winners in a row and thought tonight I would toss out a longshot at Penn National.   It's the 6th Race, an Allowance $40,000N1X for 4YO+ Pennsylvania state breds going six furlongs on dirt.

I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1.  This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime.  He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two.  Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76.  We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs.  He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts.  Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready.  There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them.  If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward.  No matter is should be an interesting race.

Play of the day: 5th at Aqueduct 4/20/2012

There were no surprises in Dayatthespa running off wire to wire in the Appalachian yesterday.  Now if you weren't greedy and played the whole $12 on her you got a nice return of $25.20. However, if you followed my idea and split the bet and put $6 on Firehouse Red to show, well our return was pocket change.  Regardless, we had a winner at our price of 6/5 and anytime you can double your money with a favorite it's a good thing!

Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course.  There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning.  Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.

The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5.  She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December.  Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today.  So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.

Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1.  The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP.  The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride.  She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart?  The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim.  He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play.  Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.

On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable.  She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race.  You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow.  Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off.  She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.

From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1.  She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race.  I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.




   

Play of the Day: 8th at Keeneland 4/19/2012

We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification.  There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically.  With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race.  In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him.  What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable.  Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5.  With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense.   Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race.  We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day.  So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.

Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24^th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf.  Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse.   In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat.  He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth.   Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today.  She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group.   The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money.  So the final question is to play or lay?

So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa?  There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1.  In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck.  She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile.  I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses.  If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.

Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1.  She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style.  Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs.  The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price.  She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass.  The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse.  He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.

Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher. 

Play of the Day: 4th at Penn National 4/18/2012

We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1.  He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return.  That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race.  It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's.  The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.

First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way.  He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly.  One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class.  You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races.  Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head.  He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.

Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2.  He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff.  I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race.  Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%).  Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field.  Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.

#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker.  So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.

#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays.  He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.

#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1.  The mystery colt.  Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives.  Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out.  It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.

The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming.  The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.

Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.

Play of the Day: 12th at Sunland Park 4/17/2012

Yesterday in the 6^th at Beulah Park, our horse Raise the Bounty went off at 4/1 which is what I penned in as his fair value.  However, he ran his usual race of rating off the pace and he was too late in getting in gear.  I felt Lumpkins had to rate him closer but then U Ben Thunderstruk did take off.  This is one of those races we handicapped it right, got the value, but the result left us $12 out.

Today’s race is the 12^th at Sunland Park, it’s the AAmigoCIH40K for 3YO+, the claiming price is $12,500.  The field of eight will be going a mile and a quarter over the dirt for a purse of $40,000.  The one that appeals to me the most would be the fourth favorite, #5 Catch the Bean ML 5/1. 

What makes this 8YO gelding so attractive is that he is razor sharp winning two in a row and actually picked up his speed in his last outing.  He has fared well at Sunland winning eight of twenty-four, with a total of fifteen times in the money.  He competed in this event last year finishing fifth with a mild rally.  Yes, Tricky Causeway finished third in that race, but it looks to me like Catch the Bean was fading in his form cycle.  Jim Boss took him over seven races back and he has won three and has four places all in routes.  Boss is a steady trainer winning 15% of his opportunities and keeps Arboleda on board, who has won two of three times riding him.   Like yesterday, the big challenge for him will be the pace, for it looks like a pace less race.  He has shown the ability to get forward but he prefers to stalk, the interesting point is that Arboleda doesn’t let him fall to far back.  He has won two in a row in the past, but each time he went for the third there was either a layoff or a change of trainer, so this will be the first time trying without an interruption.  They are bringing him back just over two weeks rest, telling me he is ready to go (or starting to roll over on his cycle but he is worth the risk).  His morning line is 5/1 and that looks fair for this race.  If some reason he drops below it then we pass on him and just watch.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/15/2012

Well I would have to say last week was rank. Two scratches, and only one real play.  So were do we stand?


Monday:           Scratched
Tuesday:           No play
Wednesday:      No play
Thursday:          Ariana D gave us a show play and paid us $18.60 on a $6 show wager. Profit of $6.60.
Friday:              Scratched


We started the week with a Net Profit of $73.80 and adding our $6.60 brings us to $80.40.  


A couple weekend notes, yesterday at the Charles Town Classic, my dark horse selection, Caixa Eletronica won paying $18.80.  Also, Magical Feeling won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town last night.  What is significant about that is his trainer, Allen Iwinski.  He is one of the most underrated trainers on the east coast. I have him in my virtual stable so when he pops up I give his horses a long look.  

Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/13/2012

Yesterday in the Madison, Home Sweet Aspen totally tanked after the start and Ariana D finished strong for show. The odds were right for both of them so would have played $2 win, $4 place on Home Sweet Aspen and $6 show on Ariana D. So for our $12 play we would have gotten back $18.60 (Ariana D paid $6.20 to show) for a profit of $6.60.

Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000.  Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it.  If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.

He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida.  Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on.  It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise.  At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.

Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/12/2012

Our choice yesterday, Silent Thunder went off at 6 1/2/1, not quite where we would have liked but close enough if the show pool was good enough for a decent payout. Regardless, he finished 7th after a good start and was in the hunt till the stretch and then faded badly.  So we are off the board this week so far and today's race is no easy one either.  Today we go to Keeneland for the 8th Race, the Madison (G1) for fillies and mares 4YO+ going 7 furlongs on the synthetic.  The purse is $300,000 and we have a field of 10 sprinting for it.

I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it.  We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices.  The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.

My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.

John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January.  She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total.  Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot.  There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts.  Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.

The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1.  We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it.  She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily.  The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today.  Those elements make her an interesting play.  The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's).  So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire?  On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price.  Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.

The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1.  This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end.  Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board.  No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.

Play of the Day:7th Race @ Aqueduct 4/11/2012

Last night at Charles Town, American Spice got up for show paying $4.20.  The morning line was 15/1 and she went off at 6/1. Not the price we were looking for, but the show pool was decent so if you were inclined a $12 show bet would have worked out nicely.  You would have gotten $25.20 for a profit of $13.20.  Some say play the show pool is a losing proposition, but with right odds and a good pool, you can sometimes salvage a play. I've told my friends many times, what's the difference if I make $25.20 to win or show, it's still $25.20 returned. That is all predicated if you like the horse too, lukewarm on the pony then pass the race.

Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile.  The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).

There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle.  Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.

He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga.  His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off.  His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form.  He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today.  The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now.  5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.

Play of the Day: 8th at Charles Town 4/10/2012

Okay, so I checked TVG this morning and there were no scratches for the 8th Race tonight at Charles Town.  It's an Allowance race for fillies and mares 3YO+ for non winners of 2 or which have broken their maiden at Charles Town or for a claiming price.  The purse is $26,000 and they are going 41/2 furlongs in this sprint.

The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1.  She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO.  The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints.  She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time.  Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field

Apology for today's race at Parx Racing

I apologize to the readers about the scratch on Gusto Di Limone today in the 7th Race. I pulled up the DRF entries and it didn't show any scratches. I normally look at my TVG account to double check and didn't do it this morning.  In the future, I will double check and if something goes haywire at the last minute, I will try to post a night race as an alternative.  I really liked Gusto Di Limone in this one, but the winner, Shoe Shine Man was in my top three. I wouldn't have touched him a 3/1 but I did like him too!

Thanks for your patience and will see you all tomorrow.

the Clocker

Play of the Day: 7th at Parx Racing 4/9/2012

We got a tidy score with Race for Urga in the Wait A While Stakes at Gulfstream yesterday, she paid $6.40 for the win.  I didn't expect her to go off as the favorite but at 2+/1 to win, she would have been a nice bet.  Today we return to where we had our last big win, Park Racing for the 7th race. It's a claiming event for 3YO+ which have never won two races. Claiming price is $16,000 (16-14) and they are running 7 furlongs for the $26,000 purse.

There is a big field of 11 and several are nice value opportunities, almost too many in fact.  The one I keep coming back to is the #11 Gusto Di Limone ML 20/1.  

This lightly raced 4YO son of Lemondrop Kid broke his maiden last out and was promptly claimed.  There are a ton of angles to play here, the recent claim were Auwarter hits 22% on first time claimers is the obvious one. The colt has hit the board 3 of 5 times and is on the board 2 of 2 here at Parx, so we know he can get into the action.  Had a nice bump in his Beyer (50), and out of the key race angle, Dance With Bull has come back to win twice and has Beyer's over 70.  I also find it interesting that Auwarter has the morning line favorite entered, Sure Got It, but he puts on his top jockey, Garcia on this one. This connection has hit 22% for a $2.62 ROI.

It'll be interesting to see where the odds end up on him, I can't fathom getting 20/1. I'm sure he will be bet down, but he is a nice play above 9/1. There are plenty of others in here too, almost a field of dreams for value players.  Normally would pass on this one for that reason. However, the longer I look at the #11 the more I like him.

Saturday Night Special: 4th @ Santa Anita (Matinee Special)

I took a long look at the night races across the country and nothing really popped for me, so I took the 4th at Santa Anita to play for a Matinee Special.  Its a Maiden Special Weight event for 3YO for $56,000 and we are going to look outside on this one.

#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1

He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's.  Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively.  There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo.  Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady.  At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.

If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1.  This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season.  Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/7/2012

Yesterday in the Transylvania none of my selections did anything.  Silver Max gunned out and never looked back, I lay that race on the other jockey's underestimating Silver Max.  It looked like they all thought the speed was going to come back to them and when it didn't they were done.  We got the odds we wanted, and I would have played $6 to win on State of Play and $2 place/$4 show on Wayward Sailor. The result was a bust out.  So where does that leave us for the week?

Monday: Pharo's Gold got up for show and returned a net profit of $13.80
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday:  No play
Thursday: No play
Friday: out $12

That leaves us a net profit of a $1.80 for a cumulative total net profit of $73.80.  Today I blogged over at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/  on the Bayshore (G3) at Aqueduct.  Later this afternoon, I will post here a Saturday Night Special.

Have a great Holiday everyone!

Play of the Day: Transylvania G3 @Keeneland 4/6/2012

There isn't much to say about our race at Santa Anita yesterday. Lovestealer scratched and then Clodhopper(IRE) never made the odds we needed for the risk and came in 7th. We had our one good race on Monday, and like last week it's been quiet.  Today we get a treat, a Graded Race on the opening day at Keeneland.  It's the Grade 3, Transylvania for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on the grass.  A field of 7 has entered for a purse of $100,000, and it's a good group in this one.  There are 3 I like, and it will depend where the tote takes us which one we play.

#1 State of Play ML 3/1

First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2.  He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park.  He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting.  The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.

#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1

This would be my price play.  I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance.  There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max?  As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help.  Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.

#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2

You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out.  The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations.  I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value.  This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.

So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.

Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon.  I would like to wish all  a great Holiday weekend.

Play of the Day: 3rd at Santa Anita 4/5/2012

We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On.  First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say.  Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race.  It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass.  It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.

The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1.  She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today.  Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance).  Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with  ...

#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1

She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings.  Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her.  Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill.  The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look.  I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event.  She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.

It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.  

Play of the Day: Ist Race @ Aqueduct 4/4/2012

Last night at Mountaineer, our choice Holiday Dreaming got up for a show finish, but she went the wrong way on the tote board. Morning line of 8/1 and out of the gate at 6/1. There was no value at 6/1 so there would be no play . Today, we go to Aqueduct to play one of my horses from my virtual stable.

It's the 1st Race on the card, a claiming race of $15,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The additional conditions are non winners of 3 races or 4YO that have not won since October 4th.  The 8 entrants will be going 6 panels for a purse of $26,000.

#8 Time Marches On ML 6/1

She started her 4YO season by breaking her maiden going 6F and then bounced off her second effort by winning at the $15,000 Claiming level for non winners of 2.  Her speed fig's are lagging to this bunch, but I think we will see an improvement as she matures. Several of the horses from her past, have gone on to win with Beyer's in the 70's and 90's, so she has the capability.  Toss out that effort in February, I watched the race replay and she hopped at the start, and made no effort after that. I'm thinking Garcia,  let her gallop around and wait for another day.    I like the Englehart/Garcia connection, hitting 22% of the time for a nice ROI, and Englehart has an outstanding record with these types of situations.  Not sure if she will win it, but do believe she can get on the board.  Now the issue is can we get her into an overlay spot? I would like to see at least 9/1 to play here.

Play of the Day: 9th Race at Mountaineer Park

I complained about getting no action last week, so what happens? We get two live ones yesterday at Turf Paradise. Southern Sculptor, has a morning line of 5/1 goes off at 11/1 and Pharo's Gold, our second choice starts at 6/1 and goes out of the gate at 16/1.  I hope you played Southern Sculptor for the  payoff was outstanding, maybe you split the bet between them? Still a good result, or if you followed my advice and took Pharo's Gold because of the higher odds, you still made out okay, $12 stack bet gets you a $25.80 return for a $13.80 profit.  Bottom line we got them in the money and off to a good start for the week.

Today, we head to Mountaineer Park, and will look at the 9th race, for 3YO fillies going 6 furlongs. It's an Allowance race for non winners of 2, and no other conditions apply, purse of $20,200.

The value play here will be the #6 Holiday Dreaming ML 8/1.  She broke her maiden last out, and I know that it's a big risk playing her right back again. Several angles to play here,  she is shipping in from Laurel, moving right into an Allowance race of N2 and they put Pereira in the irons.  There is also a minor key race angle, the race on Feb24th, the 7th and 8th place horses have since won. The 8th place finisher has actually won two in a row with an improved Beyer of 41.  The last angle is Susan Clooney , she does well in Allowance/sprint races. This fillies only bad race was at a mile, and believe with the change of scenery she will make a big improvement tonight.  Big test for her, but like her hitting the board if not winning it outright.  Now let's see if we can get value for her over 8/1, would like her at 12/1+.

Play of the Day: 6st Race @ Turf Paradise 04/02/2012

We hit a nice one yesterday with Nates Mineshaft in the New Orleans Handicap at the Fair Grounds. He went off at 10/1 and paid $20.60.  Since I blogged that pick over at horseplayersassociation.org I don't count it as part of this blog, but still an nice pick. Coupled with Hit It Rich winning the Orchid on Saturday, it was a real good weekend.

Now back to reality, today we are catching some rays down at Turf Paradise. This is an interesting condition. Maiden Optional Claiming ($30,000) going 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass for 3YO and upwards. There are two possibles here, but the challenge is do we get the value we need? Last week we didn't get too much action, and I fear in this race we might get shut out, but let's take a shot.

#5  Southern Sculptor ML 5/1

The angle here is shipping in from Santa Anita, with three consecutive hammerings in his 4YO season.  Jeff Metz takes over as trainer, were he scores 16% on 1st timers, not a bad stat. A jockey switch and cut back in distance.  His running style says this won't help, but Metz may throw a curve and have Medina take him out. His second and third back showed a bit of speed and toss in two decent works he might be ready to fire.  To get any value here he would have to float up to 9/1, otherwise I would move to the next one.

#6 Pharo's Gold ML 6/1

This will be the fourth start for this 5YO colt. This will be his second try under Whitehouse's tutelage, and Wilton's record is zero for 14.  What I do like is that Whitehouse is razor sharp with dirt to turf and turf races.  The angle here is that he improved in his last, gets a bit more distance that might help and the Whitehouse/Lopez connection hits 29% of the time for  $4.05 ROI.  If the tote takes him to 9/1 or better I would play him over the #5.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/1/2012

In the Orchid at Gulfstream yesterday, we had Hit It Rich and she won paying $7.20 and then the Saturday Night Special we pegged For Real Too at Penn National. She came in third at 4/1, honestly not sure if I would have played her, but even with a $12 stack bet, the show payout of $4 broke us even. What is even more strange about that race is the live longshot gets bet down to the favorite!  

So last week we started out with a profit of $53.60 ...

Monday:  We hit a place finish and had a net profit of $24.40
Tuesday:  No play
Wednesday:  No play
Thursday:  No play
Friday:  Itchy fingers cost us $6

That would have left us a profit of $18.40 for a combined profit of $72.

The challenge is that I'm not gleaning through 100+ races a day to find that perfect play, I'm taking the DRF race of the day or letting my mouse do the walking, so we never know what we get. The point is that you don't have to hit everyday to grind it out. The key is to hold to what is the value for that horse and race, if you don't get it, then pass. Hopefully this week we gets some action.  Today, will be reviewing the New Orleans Handicap at FG over at horseplayersassociation.org.  That is one loaded race, and I'm still scratching my head on it.

See you all tomorrow!    

Saturday Night Special: Penn Natl 4th Race

I was scanning the entries this afternoon and found an interesting spot play.  It's the 4th race at Penn National, an Allowance race($36,000N1X) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going a mile on the dirt.  Most like the #1 for the live longshot play, and she is interesting, however when I look deeper into the lineup I found the ...

#9 For Real Too ML 8/1

The attraction is this 4YO filly, is  lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row.  She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth.  You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66.  Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins.  What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races.  In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey.  Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!

Friday Recap and blogging today

I admit I got itchy fingers yesterday and played Saratoga Yankee at 12/1. I know I said 15/1 or better but was getting tired of no action the last couple of days.  He broke slowly and then had to swing off the rail to drive for a decent effort 4th. I played a small $2 to place and $4 to show, so only a small set back.

Today I am blogging at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org  I focused on the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park.  I will do my weekly update tomorrow and then get ready for Monday. I hope all of you have a wonderful weekend and cash plenty of tickets!

Play of the Day: 7th at Santa Anita 03/30/2012

We are having a tough week getting any action going.  Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.

Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita.  It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill  turf for 4YO+.  Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races.  I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.

#8  Red Defense ML 3/1

There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so.  He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record.  His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board.  I like the cut back in distance  and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.

The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1

What is this our third layoff in a row?   After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.  

Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park 03/29/2012

The 5th at Hawthorne yesterday was a repeat of Tuesday. Captain Jack raced well and got a third, but he never wavered off his 5/1 morning line, so he was a no play.  That race was highly contentious, and the money got spread evenly among all the contenders, spoiling any chance for an overlay. Today there is no such problem, in fact, there maybe too many choices.

It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event.  There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".

I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.

#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1

 She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful.  You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim.  It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.

#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1

Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.

#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1

I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help.  This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.

Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1

She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances.  Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.

I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.

Play of the Day: 5th Race at Hawthorne 3/28/2012

Last night at Charles Town, Stop the Bull came in second on a dead heat. Unfortunately, he went off at his morning line of 5/1, and we needed a lot better than that to take the risk.  The selection worked but the value didn't. So in the end he would have been a no play.

Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne.  It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.

This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year.  The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72.  In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value.  The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back.  Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.

I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.

Play of the Day: 7th at Charles Town 03/27/2012

Yesterday at Turf Paradise we got King of the Sky at 14/1 off a ML of 6/1 and he finished second. He paid $9.80 for place and $5.60 to show.  With a $12 investment, the return was $36.40 for a net profit of $24.40. A good start top the week.

Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.

Where does that leave us?  the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.

There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter.  We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters.  He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.

With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned.  So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.

This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.

Play of the Day: 6th Race at Turf Paradise 3/26/2012

So we start another week trying to find value propositions using the daily race that the DRF tosses our way.  Today we are at Turf Paradise for the 6th race.  It's an Optional Claimer ($20K/N3L) for 3YO and upward going a mile.  At first pass, it's a tough group and I can see several taking it.  I like the #5 Holy Saint at 5/1, but I don't see us getting 6/1 or better.  The #6 Relatorre is an interesting situation, but again not sure we can get the value we need.

The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.

This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all.  The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.

If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?  

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/25/12

Friday at Santa Anita we got our odds but like Thursday we didn't the result. The interesting thing is at the track, I shifted my entire play to the #5 Tones(IRE) ML 4/1.  When looking at the PP's he was a good looking horse, but at 4/1 there was no strong value. However, at race time he moved to 10/1 and that is an overlay. I played him with a stack bet and he came in second returning, $10.40 for place and $5.40 for show a total of $37 on a $12 investment. Sadly, that is not what I wrote, so it is a big zero for the day.

For the week we had a place and a win. We invested a total of $42, returned $65 for a profit of $23.20. The carryover from the week before was a positive $30.40 bringing our grand total so far to, $53.60.  At this pace I can buy a tank a gas! Today, I will be doing the analysis on the Sunland Derby at horseplayersassociation.org.

See you all tomorrow!

Play of the Day: 7th Race at Santa Anita 3/23/2012

Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.

It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse.  This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it.  I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.

The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass.  Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass.  Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.

Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1.  We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher.  He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help.  Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one.  It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one?   His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.

Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1.  Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher.  The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share.  So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch.  Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall.  I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the  mix.

So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.

Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.

Play of the Day: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 03/22/2012

Yesterday turned out to be a no play day with our scratch at Aqueduct. In fact, three of the seven decided to be no go's in that stakes race. I hope the horses are fine, and Strike the Moon got hammered at the windows and the result showed it, placing third.

Today, we head down I-95 to Gulfstream Park and look at the 6th Race. It's a Maiden Special Weights for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on grass for a purse of $60,000.  This is a good field and a lot of contention, there are no real glaring angles here, so we have to dig deeper. I like two of them, and the action at the tote will decide the direction. First one I like is ...

#5 Grouse ML 5/1

Hard not to like a Chad Brown entry at 5/1.  This will be his third start and is stretching out a bit more. His last effort showed nice improvement, not only in his Beyer, but in his call slots, notice he ran closer up than his first effort.  This will be his first spin on the weeds, but breeding says it should be fine. Also, there are some key races in his past, he has run against some good company.  Leparoux is back on him, a good sign, Labaroux is hitting 16% on grass and 33% with Brown. One more point, is Chad Brown numbers with Turf, MSW and horses coming off short layoffs are excellent. The only issues is do we get 5/1? Probably not, but if he does or drifts higher then I play $2 to win $4 to place.

For value, I'll take the first time starter #7 Act of War(IRE) ML 10/1

The breeding suggest he is a good one, Lasix added and Garoffalo puts Velazquez on for the debut. I know Garoffalo doesn't have the greatest 1st time starter record, but his other stats are good. He is not a lock by any means, but it's an interesting situation for this first time starter. If we get our odds on Grouse, then I would put $6 to show on the #7 at 10/1 or higher, and I stress the higher. Lower no play.

There are other interesting entries, the #5 is a possible too. With this much contention and no overt angle play, things do get muddy. In the end, Grouse if we get the action, otherwise the #7 for a show play.

Pick of the Day: 8th @Aqueduct 03/21/12

We had a nice score yesterday at Parx, with Schist winning, paying $20.00! and we got our 9/1 so a stack bet would have been played. A $12.00 investment would have returned, $43.60, giving us a profit of $31.60. So far this week, we have a place and a win, not too bad of a start.  Today, we go to Aqueduct and look at the Lynclar Stakes ($75K) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going 6 Furlongs.  There are several good horses in this field, and I like the #5 Strike the Moon ML 5/1, if  we could get better than 5/1 I might be inclined to play her. I'm sure the tote will not give us any value on her, so I looked outside for anyone to upset the top contenders.

The one that fits the bill is #6 Isn't She Grand ML 10/1

She is one tough 5YO with two wins in her last three on the inner track at Aqueduct.  Her speed is comparable to these, even though she does get wonky at times.  She has some decent efforts at this level, and has won two in a row at the starter level. I like horses that are sharp and moving back up a notch. Rudy Rodriguez  has a solid record with horses winning their last outings, and I do like that Velasquez is still in the irons.  She will hustle to the front, and has a way of winning. If the tote floats over 10/1 it would be an interesting proposition, any thing less no play.  

Play of the Day: 7th Race at Parx 03/20/12

Last night at Mountaineer we had Magnificent Mile going off at 5/1, and he finished second. I would have liked to have seen 8/1 or better, but the tote held firm, and the show pool looked weak. Regardless, let's say we wanted the action, still liked him and we took  a stack play on him ($2W,$4P,$6S).  We put $12, and taking the risk that if he comes in third we are going to take a bath. The result is we get a return of $21.60 for a profit of $9.60. Not too bad, but not sure the risk was worth it on a $5000 claimer race.

Today, we try Parx Racing.  It's the 7th race, going a mile and 70 yards for 3YO maidens, MSW$45,000.
 
Most of the money should go to the Dutrow entry #6 Yoginis, and with any luck my selection the #7 Schist might rise above the ML of 6/1.  The angle here is a hot trainer, Cathal Lynch, who hits 21% on MSW, and 36% 1st claim.  She puts Arroyo on board that does well with her horses and has a good maiden record, as well.  Playing Maiden Claimers back to Maiden Special Weights is a risky proposition, especially after a dull performance, and stretching out. This is strictly an overlay play, we must get better than 6/1, thinking 9/1 or higher or there is NO play.

Looking at any others in here that can beat the #6, I like the #9 Lookiingatlangfurhr. Nice second effort, and grabbed second ahead of Yoginis.

Play of the Day: 2nd Race at Mountaineer Park

Today we start the week with some night racing at Mountaineer Park.  Our play of the day comes from the 2nd race going 6 furlongs, $5000 claiming for fillies and mares, 3YO and upward. Straight claimer, no conditions.

#3 Magnificent Mile ML 8/1 

This 4YO is shipping from Beulah and is 2 for 3 in 2012. Improving Beyer's and looks to be in the middle of a nice form cycle. The place horse in his last went on to win next outing with a 56 Beyer. Melvin Davis takes over and has an excellent claimer record and puts the Mountaineer best jockey on board, Parker.  8/1 is a square price and if we can get 10/1 then he would be a stack bet.

Trips and Traps for Aqueduct 03/15/12

 I tried to embed this weeks Trips and Traps and it doesn't work. You can go to You Tube and put in the search box: Trips and Traps - 03/15/2012. See you all tomorrow.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/17/12

Going to change how I recap the week. To get a better gauge how we are doing, I will list each race and the money won or lost.

Monday:    Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.

Tuesday:   Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.  

Wednesday:  Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.

Thursday:  Sportswriter at Aqueduct.  No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).

Friday:  Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.  

Bet: $26  Cashed: $56.40  Profit: $30.40

Play(s) of the Day: 9th race @Fair Grounds

What a week! Wednesday we get the right price but the wrong result, then yesterday at Aqueduct we get the right result but the wrong price.  The #3 scratches out and he would have been the favorite, and that opens the door for our selection to go from 7/2 morning line to 4/5 at post time. Needless to say, there would have been no bet, but it's still nice to pick a winner, even if it's chalk.

Today, we will run down to the Fair Grounds and play the 9th Race. It's a $5000 claimer for 4YO and upwards going a mile and sixteenth. The conditions of this race allow for some real salty entries.  I admit, I don't handicap low level claimers because the form cycle is so hard to spot.  However, if you can figure it out these type of races bring the best value.  In this one, there are two of interest, and like always the tote will dictate the action.

From a pure angle play, the #11 Random Move ML 9/2 fits the bill.  This 5YO gelding is shipping in from Delta Downs, were he had three tough races, the last won he held on to third. He get's the hot jockey in Rosie Napravnik and his trainer, Jonas Gibson has done well at the Fair Grounds with his limited barn.  I know Smashin Thru has handled twice in those three races, and his speed sits in the mid 50 low 60's, but looking at the past, he seems to find something extra here at the FG.  If he goes to 8/1 or higher he would be an intriguing play.

Next one is the #8 Pharme Legend ML 10/1.  Out of the gate the price is there and suspect it will go higher by post time.  What makes him attractive is we have a lightly race 4YO, who has done well for himself. Won 3 of  13 and in the money 7 times.  That record is from Texas at Retama, and his first two spins at the Fair Grounds have been lackluster. So why today?  I like the jockey switch to Shane Sellers, his last work out here at FG was a bullet, he raced better at the first two calls last out. I know it doesn't seem much to go on, and he might not like this surface, but Danny Pish is a steady trainer, and he might have this one ready to go.  The key is, does the #11 get the 8/1 or better? if so go there, if not take a small shot on Pharme Legend.

Tomorrow, I'll be blogging over a www.horseplayersassociation.org, and will do a weekly recap in the afternoon.

Play of the Day: 7th @Aqueduct 3/15/12

We got the price on Precision Farming at Gulfstream yesterday, 15/1, sadly we didn't get the result.  I'm not sure how I would have played it, she had shown issues in the past, and felt lukewarm all the way around, maybe one unit to win and let it go at that.  Today is Thursday, so it must be Aqueduct! It feels like every Thursday the DRF tosses us a race from there and today is no exception.

It's the 7th race, a Optional Claimer for $75,000 non winners of one etc.  I will refrain writing out the conditions today.  It's for 3YO going 6F on the inner track. A nice field of 8 lightly raced 3YO's have entered and this group is tough.  There are several I like in here, especially the #3 and #4, either one show they can handle this one, and if we could a decent value I would take #3 Copy My Swagger ML 3/1 in a flash, but I don't think it will be there. So where do we go to get some value in this bunch.

If the tote plays out right and the money falls on the #3 and #4, and we can assume money will land on #8 Behemoth ML 5/1, Pletcher's horse, we might get some play on the #6 Sportswriter ML 5/2.  This is a straight angle play.  He won two back at this distance on the inner track, cutting back today, improving Beyer's, Rudy Rodriquez is having a great meet, and he puts Dominquez on board (who is red hot).  There is no doubt he will need a strong effort today, for he mainly has faced state breds, but there are times you have to go with the flow.  There is an old saying, the trend is your friend and when you find a hot trainer/jockey combo, you foresake form and go with it. Let's see how the tote treats us, but he will be a good play if he can bust over 5/1.  

Price Play: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 3/14/12

Last night in the 8th race at Charles Town we hit the board with Omara Devil coming in second at 15/1.  As expected, Silver Heart won the race, but was surprising is Bahia Beach going off as the favorite. With Omara Devil with a morning line of 5/1 and getting a nice overlay at 15/1, I would have stacked my wagers. One unit win, two to place and three to show.  That would mean at $2 per unit a $12 investment and returned $25.80.

Today, we go to Gulfstream Park for the 6th race, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. It's an Optional claiming event for 4YO+, fillies and mares that have never won $7500 twice other than maiden, claiming starter of state bred or which have never won 3 races or claiming price $62,500.  So those broad conditions bring us a field of 10, and several good horses.

It's easy to see the #5, 6, and 7 are the top ones and you could toss in the #1 and #10 as outsiders.  So I went to find a price play in this event and found the #8 Precision Farming ML 12/1 to be intriguing.  She made her 6YO debut here last month at this level and was closing down on some these in that event.  The place horse two back went on to win at this level with a Beyer in the mid 80's, and Linda Rice is bringing her back promptly. No doubt there has been issues of some kind in the past, seeing she has raced only 15 times in 4 years, but she has won 5, and has shown speed to beat these ladies. I do like Linda Rice horses, and Lezcano is back on board. He is having a good meet, and that might signal she is ready to go today.  Also, she is getting an extra 1/2 furlong today, and she has won at this distance and at 6F, this small stretch out might be just the tonic.

We need 12/1 or higher, and not sure how to wager as I would have to see the  odds at post time. Good luck and will see you all tomorrow.

Play of the Day: 8th Race Charles Town for 03/13/12

The race yesterday at Turf Paradise turned out to be a bust.  Not only didn't we get the odds on Hay Gear but he also ran up the track on us.  He had a morning line of 5/1 and expected him to go off at 8/1 or higher. In the end he was bet down to 3/1 taking all the value out of the play of the day.  Picking winners is hard enough, but if we are going to go down, at least let's get our price.

Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races.  The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles.  After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.

This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start,  maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.

The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race.  I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.

Play of the Day: 1st Race @ Turf Paradise

Yesterday, I dropped in a price play in the 1st Race at Gulstream, Wildcat Sierra.  The morning line was 12/1 and she went off at 10/1, since she went off less than the morning line, there would have been no play.  The key to the price play is that the odds have to be at or higher than the morning line, or the horse becomes an over bet.

Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise,  it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs.   It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult.  The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach.  Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers.  The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group?  I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.

Price Play For Sunday, 1st Race @Gulfstream

Normally I don't blog on Sundays, for I'm either in a tournament or playing for my own account.  However, I spotted an interesting price play at Gulfstream Park today in the 1st race.  It's a maiden claiming ($12,500) going 51/2 furlongs.  The price play is ...

#5  Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1

She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance.  I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.

I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off.   Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.

Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters.  Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.

Good luck!!

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/10/12

Abella finished third at Santa Anita yesterday, she gave a good showing , and will be interested to see where she shows up next.  We had a winner on Thursday, Self Control taking the 9th at Gulfstream and cashing a $6.00 winning ticket.  So out of five races, $10 invested, won $6. leaving us down $4 for the week.  The week before we were up $8, that leaves us a working profit of $4.

Today is the Tampa Bay Derby, for a price play I'm going with the #1 Prospective with a ML 8/1.  I had picked Take Charge Indy as the favorite, but he scratched out, so that leaves Battle Hardened to be the odds on choice. The write up is at www.horseplayersassociation.org

Results:

Starts:   8

Wins:    2

Place:    0

Show:   2